2023-10-09 05:55:46
During the epidemic,New Taiwan DollarThe exchange rate has risen sharply and has become the strongest Asian currency. However, as the shadow of the epidemic has faded, the New Taiwan dollar has lost its halo. It has continued to fall this year, and it was close to the price of 32.5 yuan last week. Experts pointed out three factors, pointing out that geopolitical disturbances are the key to the decline of the New Taiwan Dollar more than other Asian currencies.
After the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, the New Taiwan Dollar took advantage of three major advantages: booming exports, the return of Taiwanese businessmen, and the strong attraction of Taiwan stocks to attract funds. It has started a sharp upward trend, rising step by step from 30 yuan at the beginning of 2020, and it has already risen above the bottom level that year. 28.1 yuan; 2021 has just begun, and the New Taiwan dollar has broken through the 28 yuan integer barrier, opening a new era of exchange rates of 27 yuan. It is well deserved to be the “strongest Asian currency”.
However, the situation will change in 2022. With theFederal ReserveWith violent interest rate hikes, the U.S. dollar shows off its “eagle posture” and the newTaiwan dollar exchange rateGoing back on the road, the closing price of the New Taiwan dollar once morest the U.S. dollar in 2022 was 30.708 yuan, depreciating 9.83% throughout the year, the largest decline in 25 years; the exchange rate of the New Taiwan dollar continued to depreciate in 2023, and has fallen by nearly 15% since the end of 2021. .
Chen Youzhong, chief foreign exchange strategist at Taishin Bank, analyzed that the New Taiwan dollar exchange rate has been depreciating this year, mainly affected by three major factors. Economic fundamentals are an important factor. Even though exports showed signs of bottoming out in July and August, they continued to be negative. Growth, coupled with China’s economy being worse than expected, has dragged down Taiwan’s recovery. “Exports have shown no signs of springing back, causing the New Taiwan dollar to keep falling.”
Secondly, the global economy is generally weak, while the U.S. economy is relatively resilient and inflation remains high, making the Federal Reserve reluctant to stop raising interest rates. As a result, the U.S. dollar stands out and has a strong gold-absorbing effect.
Chen Youzhong analyzed that the hawkish comments in the Federal Reserve have continued, and U.S. bond yields have frequently hit highs. The U.S. stock market has plummeted in recent days, which reflects the impact of rising U.S. bond yields. “The biggest gray rhinoceros this year may be the U.S. dollar, and everything else is lying there.” It’s even.”
Poor economic fundamentals and the arrival of a strong US dollar are common issues encountered by most countries. However, since the end of 2021, the New Taiwan dollar has fallen by nearly 15%, surpassing Asian currencies such as the RMB and the Korean won.
Chen Youzhong further pointed out that the People’s Bank of China has stabilized the RMB and the Japanese yen has not weakened below last year’s lows. However, the New Taiwan dollar exchange rate has recently broken through the 32.4 yuan price level, setting a new intraday low since June 30, 2016, and the closing price has also simultaneously set a new record of more than 32.4 yuan. The new low in 7 years clearly shows that the New Taiwan dollar is weaker than other Asian currencies. Looking into the reasons behind it, in addition to poor economic fundamentals and the strength of the US dollar, Taiwan also has a third variable – geopolitical tensions.
“What everyone is more worried regarding now is the investigation of China’s trade barriers.” Chen Youzhong pointed out that although the impact of the trade barrier investigation may be mainly on the transmission industry and the electronics industry is relatively small, it will not severely damage Taiwan’s real economy, but it has caused a confidence panic. “This At that time, foreign investors were unwilling to buy Taiwan stocks, and political factors were the main reason for aggravating the decline of the Taiwan dollar.”
Chen Youzhong said that foreign investors oversold Taiwanese stocks in August and September, but Taiwanese stocks did not fall. This means that almost all domestic investors picked up the stocks and local investors had strong confidence. However, now that U.S. stocks have fallen, Taiwan has been shrouded in the shadow of geopolitics. Foreign capital has no reason to cover Taiwan stocks, and foreign capital continues to flee. As a result, even if Taiwan stocks pull up for one or two days, they cannot continue until the third day.
Looking back on the exchange rate trend of the New Taiwan Dollar this year, it has been falling from 30 yuan at the beginning of the year. It officially broke through the 32 yuan mark in late September. It is still weak so far.
Huiyin analysts analyzed that the New Taiwan dollar exchange rate has always been 5 cents as a resistance level. Every time it depreciates by 5 cents, the brakes will be applied. Now that the exchange rate has fallen below 32 yuan, it may consolidate slightly. Next, we will just wait and see. Has the general environment improved?
People from Huiyin pointed out that the latest economic indicator for August announced by the National Development Council will continue to light up blue, but it was revealed that the light is expected to change in September at the earliest and in the fourth quarter at the slowest. In addition, the third and fourth quarters are the traditional export peak seasons. Although the peak season is not very strong, at least it is not worse, which shows that the fundamentals have gradually improved. “I can’t say that the depreciation (of the New Taiwan dollar exchange rate) has come to an end, but any further depreciation should be limited.”
However, Huiyin people also said that even if the New Taiwan dollar has not hit the bottom once more, there is no opportunity to rise yet. They can only wait for the negative news to slowly fade away and wait for a turnaround. Before that, the New Taiwan dollar of 32 yuan should be the new currency. normal.
Huiyin people also pointed out that if US President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in San Francisco in November this year, the improvement of tense relations between the United States and China will help strengthen market confidence.
On the other hand, although the market believes that the U.S. Federal Reserve may continue to raise interest rates in November, there is also the possibility that interest rates will remain unchanged. Huiyin people said that if these uncertainties can be “debunked successfully,” perhaps the new The Taiwan dollar is bound to reverse when things go extreme, and there is a chance for a rebound trend.
1696853786
#strong #dollar #Taiwan #dollar #maintaining #yuan #normal #Experts #point #factors #Financial #news #Sankei