2023-10-09 05:00:04
as an indicator of bulk shipping BDI Index (Baltic Sea Composite Index), which has increased by 80% in the past quarter. After entering the traditional peak season of the fourth quarter, the trend is still bullish and volatile. AVIC (2612-TW) said that the annual net growth rate of global fleet tonnage is currently at a low level, and the supply and demand structure continues to improve, Huiyang-KY(2637-TW) pointed out that the fourth quarter is the peak season for shipments of American grains and Australian coal mines, and freight rates are expected to be at a certain level. Yumin (2606-TW) also stated that the fourth quarter should be the best season of the year, and the bulk industry is expected to eat sugar cane.
As China’s crude steel output remains high, supporting iron ore prices, AVIC pointed out that China’s raw material imports increased at an annual rate of more than 7% in the first three quarters, and the total inventory of major ports continued to fall to the low level of the past three years, and stocks are gradually being replenished. Afterwards, China’s full-year iron ore imports are expected to show annual growth for the first time in three years.
In contrast, in the past few years, most of the shipbuilding capacity of shipyards has been used for container ships. The net tonnage growth rate of the global bulk shipping fleet is currently at a low level. According to statistics, 45 new ships were put into operation in the first three quarters, and the number of scrapped ships was 8. The net tonnage growth rate of ships was only 1.89%, which is favorable for the supply and demand structure of bulk goods to continue to improve.
AVIC further explained that new energy main engines and fuel supplies for bulk ships have not yet become popular. In addition, shipbuilding costs have increased significantly due to inflation, which has reduced shipowners’ willingness to build ships, leaving new and second-hand ship prices still at relatively high levels.
Huiyang pointed out that the fourth quarter is the peak season for shipments of American grains and Australian coal mines. BDI indexand freight rates remain above a certain level, we are cautiously optimistic regarding the fourth quarter.
The International Maritime Organization recently raised the carbon emission standards for ships in the next 30 years at the MEPC80 meeting. Bulk shippers are continuing to pay attention to the knock-on effects of eliminating old shipping capacity and developing ship environmental protection technology.
Huiyang pointed out that in order to respond to the international environmental protection trend, we will continue to actively dispose of old ships according to market prices and build new small and medium-sized energy-saving ships.
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