2023-10-09 02:55:29
The war in West Asia casts a dark shadow over the market. It is indicated that the market will lose the excitement of the monetary policy announced by the Reserve Bank without increasing the interest rates. After the war, crude oil prices jumped 5 percent. Gold, which was low, also rose.
Gift Nifty closed at 19,770 on Friday night in derivatives trade at Gujarat Gift City. It fell to 19,655 this morning. The derivatives market is giving an indication that the Indian market will start trading at a loss today.
European indexes ended Friday up regarding 1 percent. The Philips company received severe criticism from the US FDA (Food and Drug Administration) which sent the stock down by 7 percent. European futures are down big this morning.
The U.S. market closed higher on Friday. The Dow Jones gained 288.01 points (0.87%) to close at 33,407.58. The S&P rose 50.31 points (1.18%) to close at 4308.5. The Nasdaq climbed 211.51 points (1.60%) to close at 13,431.34.
US non-farm payrolls rose to 3.36 lakh in September. 1.7 lakh was expected. 6 There was a 4.2 percent increase in wages. Expected 4.3 percent. The unemployment rate is only 4.6 percent. Markets shrugged off concerns that the figure would trigger an interest rate hike. Instead, the market went up.
U.S. futures plunged following the West Asian war. The Dow fell 207 points (0.61%) in informal trading on Sunday. Other major indices also fell at the same rate.
U.S. 10-year Treasuries fell to a yield of 4.795 percent on Friday. The US bond market is on holiday today.
Asian markets closed on Friday’s gains in mixed directions today. In Japan, the Nikkei was down 0.25 percent. Australian and Korean markets rose.
After a week off, the Chinese market started trading today with a one percent decline.
Indian market
The Indian market also made good gains on Friday. The Reserve Bank kept interest rates unchanged and helped the bulls. Sensex rose to 66,096 and Nifty to 19,676. The Sensex closed up 364.06 points (0.55%) at 65,995.63. The Nifty gained 107.75 points (0.55%) to close at 19,663.5. Bank Nifty gained 147.25 points (0.33%) to close at 44,360.6.
The mid-cap index rose 0.63 percent to close at 40,284.7, while the small-cap index rose 0.8 percent to close at 12,837.1.
Foreign investors sold shares worth Rs 90.29 crore. Swadeshi funds and institutions also bought shares worth Rs 783.25 crore.
All sectors have gained except media. Realty rose 3.06 percent ahead of gains.
Last week, the major indexes rose only 0.2 percent. Realty and IT are the sectors that have done well.
Today Nifty has support at 19,605 and 19,550. 19,675 and 19,730 will be barriers.
Industrial metals except tin rose on Friday. Aluminum rose 0.36 percent to $2,242.95 a tonne. Copper rose 0.95 percent to $7,886.75 a tonne. Tin accounted for 0.27 percent. Zinc rose by 0.92 percent, nickel by 0.21 percent, lead by 3.08 percent.
Crude oil and gold
The oil market, which closed lower on Friday, bounced back today. Brent crude closed at $84.58 and WTI at $82.79 on Friday. Brent fell 11 percent last week.
Crude rose more than five percent following the West Asian war. In the morning, Brent crude reached $88.8 and WTI reached $87.
Gold prices rose to close at $1,834.1 an ounce following the US jobs report came in. After the war, it climbed to 1851 dollars this morning.
In Kerala on Friday, the power price increased by Rs 80 to Rs 42,000. On Saturday, it rose by Rs 520 twice to Rs 42,520. The indication is that the price will increase significantly once more today.
The dollar closed unchanged at Rs 83.25 on Friday. The market has concluded that monetary policy is helping the rupee.
The dollar index closed lower at 106.04. It went up to 106.29 this morning.
Cryptocurrencies are on the rise. Bitcoin is near 27,900.
What is said and what is not said in monetary policy
Monetary policy announced on Friday left interest rates unchanged. This does not mean that the interest charged or paid by banks will not change. Banks can change the rates as the money supply in the market increases or decreases. Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday also asked that the change made by the Reserve Bank be passed on to as many customers.
RBI has announced its decision to conduct OMO (Open Market Operation) to regulate liquidity of banks. It is a method of auctioning and selling government bonds. Through this, you can increase the investment in debentures. Lower bond prices and higher investment returns will help the rupee. Investment gains in U.S. bonds led to withdrawals by foreign investors. It is hoped that increasing the investment yield of Indian bonds will help to change that.
The Reserve Bank survey found that inflation expectations in the country are decreasing. Earlier, the price hike was expected to be more than 10 percent.
The retail price inflation expectation for this fiscal year has been maintained at 5.4 percent. But retail price inflation expectation for October-December was cut to 5.4 percent from 5.2 percent. The conclusion of 6.5 percent GDP growth this year was also maintained.
Companies, news
The start of second quarter company results will be this week. TCS will publish the results on Wednesday and Infosys and HCL on Thursday.
Leading brokerages expect companies’ second-quarter revenue and net profit to show modest growth over the first quarter.
The TCS board will decide on the terms of the buyback of the company’s shares on Wednesday. In 2022, the company bought back four crore shares for Rs 18,000 crore. After 2017, the company bought back shares four times.
Retail inflation data for India and the US will be released on Wednesday. Both are critical. The US retail inflation figure will influence the interest rate decision at the US Fed meeting on October 31 – November 1.
War and the market
War will be driving the market these days. The big question is whether the war will continue only between Israel and Hamas, or whether it will spread to other countries. US citizens are also being held hostage by Hamas, making the situation worse. Iran and Iran-backed Hezbollah forces supported Hamas. India expressed solidarity with Israel.
The war will make the India-West Asia-Europe trade corridor uncertain. Stocks that are expected to rise in that corridor will also get tired. Although there is no hindrance to India-Israel cooperation in the field of defense, the war situation will hinder the supply of components and other materials from there.
Market signals
(6th October 2023, Friday)
Sensex 30 65,995.63 +0.55%
Nifty 50 19,663.50 +0.55%
Bank Nifty 43,360.60 +0.33%
Mid Cap 100 40,284.70 +00.60%
Small Cap 100 12,837.10 +0.80%
Dow Jones 30 33,407.58 +0.87%
S&P 500 4308.50 +1.18%
Nasdaq 13,431.34 +1.60%
Dollar ($) ₹83.25 +₹0.00
Dollar index 106.04 -00.29
Gold(oz) $1834.10 +$12.90
Gold (Pavan) ₹42,520 +₹600.00
Crude (Brent) oil $84.58 +$0.40
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