2023-09-01 07:00:00
Sep. 1—64.2%.
That’s the percentage of Journal readers that picked New Mexico football to win more than 3.5 games this season, something that hasn’t happened since the Lobos won nine games in 2016.
Which means there’s at least some degree of optimism heading into Year 4 of the Danny Gonzales era: regarding a new offense with plenty of fresh faces. Key returners playing a big role on defense. The idea the program is either going in the right direction — or that things can’t get worse than they’ve been.
And that means it’s probably regarding time the Journal makes their own prediction. Here’s a gut-check, inexact game-by-game prediction from UNM football beat writer Sean Reider:
Sept. 2 at Texas A&M
This is the one game all year the Lobos really shouldn’t be in. A&M is flat-out bigger. Faster. Stronger. Blue chip talent across that board that should be in a position to play like that, the type that creates those mountainous expectations year-following-year.
But I think there’s few drives where that doesn’t totally look to be the case. After all, A&M made a nasty habit out of playing down to opponents last season — as talented as they are, have the Aggies completely removed that from their system?
Prediction: Aggies eventually overwhelm, a certain overheated Journal reporter forgets to tweet out the final score and a late Luke Drzewicki field goal moves the Lobos to 1-0 once morest the spread. Texas A&M 41, New Mexico 6
Sept. 9 vs. Tennessee Tech
A back-to-back I don’t love: a week following being graded on how tight they can play A&M, New Mexico will be graded on how soundly they whip Tennessee Tech, an FCS team that hasn’t had a winning record since 2011.
Which at least somebody thinks might change this year. The Golden Eagles did get one (1) vote to win the Big South-OVC conference.
Prediction: Two Tennessee natives get snaps at quarterback as Dylan Hopkins (Maryville, TN) leaves a blowout for D.C. Tabscott (Franklin, TN) and Devon Dampier to clean up. $350,000 well spent. New Mexico 38, Tennessee Tech 7
Sept. 16 vs. New Mexico State
Putting the rivalry aside for one moment and not a second longer: let’s appreciate the fact this should be one hell of a football game. NMSU and UNM haven’t finished with winning records in the same season since 2002. It’ll take more than a little luck on both sides, but there’s a not completely unreasonable path for this season to break that streak.
Prediction: D.J. Washington breaks out in a big way with three receiving touchdowns, but Pavia’s overtime heroics pushes the Aggies to a stunning victory in a whale of a game. NMSU 34, New Mexico 33 (3OT)
Sept. 23 at UMass
Whether they win or lose the week prior, this might end up being a crucial game for the Lobos. Coming off an emotional rivalry game? Check. A trip to Amherst, MA for the furthest continental road game in the 131-year history of New Mexico football? Check.
A Don Brown-led UMass team with decent pieces and decidedly more pluck than…maybe ever? Check.
Prediction: Christian Washington returns a kick for a touchdown early in the fourth quarter to help ensure UMass doesn’t go undefeated once morest the Land of Enchantment. New Mexico 30, UMass 17
Sept. 30 at Wyoming
I was a little surprised Wyoming ended up sixth in the Mountain West preseason media poll, if only for the fact this defense should be a load. The Cowboys return 10 starters, including Mountain West preseason defensive player of the year Easton Gibbs and a defensive line that might be the best in the league.
And stop me if you’ve heard this before — Wyoming does have questions at quarterback. Can Andrew Peasley provide the passing attack needed to just supplement their rushing attack, much less the defense?
Prediction: A perfectly normal football game devolves into a complete and utter rockfight. Wyoming 13, New Mexico 10
Oct. 14 vs. San Jose State
In discussing Hopkins, Gonzales has mentioned time and time once more that he has the second most starts of any active quarterback in the conference — behind none other than San Jose State’s Chevan Cordeiro. And besides being the most-established quarterback, Cordeiro might be its most talented, with preseason Mountain West preseason offensive player of the year honors to his name.
Prediction: Two veteran quarterbacks combine for a highly-entertaining duel but a Chase Williams interception marks the turning point as the Spartans pull away in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicates. San Jose State 42, New Mexico 38
Oct. 21 vs. Hawaii
The general consensus around Hawaii in Year 2 of the Timmy Chang era was that they’re a year away from being a year away. But a rock solid performance in a 35-28 loss to Vanderbilt in Week 0 has some thinking they might be closer than originally thought.
Prediction: Hawaii quarterback Brayden Schrager toughs it out among a swarming defense for three touchdowns as the Warriors pull off a shocker to send UNM on a three-game skid. Hawaii 24, New Mexico 20
Oct. 28 at Nevada
What projects to be a long season in Reno will be in full swing by the time the Lobos get there in late October. Head coach Ken Wilson has supplemented the Wolfpack with a haul of Oregon transfers but some unexpected turnover on the coaching staff and a roster that’s very much being rebuilt doesn’t set up for a particularly rosy season for Nevada.
Prediction: Tasked with making sure their season doesn’t spiral out of control, New Mexico comes out with an inspired, easier-than-anticipated win at Mackay Stadium. New Mexico 45, Nevada 10
Nov. 4 vs UNLV
It raised more than a few eyebrows at the time, but I at least understand and respect why Las Vegas Aviators and UNLV broadcaster Matt Neverett picked the Rebels to win the Mountain West.
UNLV might get the best version of quarterback Doug Brumfield in new offensive coordinator Brennan Marion’s ultra-fun Go-Go scheme. First-year head coach Barry Odom might tune up a defense that lost their two best defenders, but added some intriguing Power 5 transfers.
Added together, that might make for a pretty good team. But that might be one might too far.
Prediction: There’s a high ceiling here. But UNLV isn’t winning the Mountain West. I think they end up being good enough to go into University Stadium and win, though. UNLV 32, New Mexico 24
Nov. 11 at Boise State
Is Boise State back to being…Boise State? All signs mostly point to yes. Running backs George Holani and Ashton Jeanty set up for one of the best ground attacks in the league while quarterback Taylen Green has all the tools to lead the Broncos back to their glory days of the mid to late-2000s.
Prediction: New Mexico’s defense actually makes life quite tough for Green (one touchdown, two interceptions) but Boise’s backs and an opportunistic defense prove to be the difference. Boise State 28, New Mexico 17
Nov. 18 at Fresno State
Fresno State lost a lot of what fueled last season’s Mountain West title run, namely quarterback Jake Haener and running back Jordan Mims. Their defense, however, should still be close to that championship quality, with seven starters returning.
Prediction: I don’t think the Bulldogs will be cellar-dwelling bad this season. But I think it’s possible to lose too much and I think New Mexico gets up for this one in a big way. New Mexico 31, Fresno State 20
Nov. 24 vs Utah State
The third group of Aggies New Mexico will play this season, Utah State has been flying under-the-radar throughout the preseason. Head coach Blake Anderson is calling plays once more for quarterback Cooper Legas and while the defense has room for improvement up front, they remain strong in the secondary. Will that be enough for a bounce back season?
Prediction: Key seniors Hopkins and cornerback Donte Martin go off on a high note on a beautiful late November followingnoon at University Stadium. New Mexico 24, Utah State 17
Final prediction
As you can probably tell, this is a brutal team to try and predict. Because there is a world where things do go well: a defense regarded to be more talented than last year’s comes together and fulfills that potential on the field. A completely new offense that’s upgraded at every position plays worlds better than the last two seasons. Complementary football returns to Albuquerque and meaningful steps are taken forward in the Gonzales era.
And as Lobo fans know well, there is a world where things go wrong. Terribly wrong. What happens if Hopkins is out for a significant amount of time? Or if the defense does take that forecasted step back? The optimism in and around the program is warranted right now. Will it be in November?
Like most things, I think it’s somewhere in the middle. This is a team that ought to compete for New Mexico’s first postseason appearance since 2016 and I think they come tantalizingly close to getting there. A stop here, an inch there away from notching the first bowl of the Gonzales’ era.
Without seeing them in a real, live game environment, I’ll take the over and peg them at five wins — no bowl. And at the end of the day, that probably doesn’t mean much, either.
See you on Saturday.
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