2023-09-14 07:00:00
With over 100 FCS-vs-FBS matchups this fall, there are bound to be upsets. 2022 saw eight FCS-over-FBS upsets, but what teams might be next to pull off an upset in 2023? Here’s a look at 25 games that should be on high upset alert.
Week 1
Rhode Island at Georgia State
Rhode Island battles Georgia State in one of Week 1’s first games on a Thursday night. A motivated Rhode Island team that still feels the pain of an FCS playoff snub will battle a Georgia State team that finished 4-8 in 2022. The Rams have returning starters across the board and might kick off the 2023 season with an upset.
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Northern Iowa at Iowa State
Northern Iowa vs. an in-state FBS program always has a chance at an upset. In 2023, the Panthers head to Iowa State to battle a Cyclone team that finished 4-8 a year ago. This matchup might bring déjà vu from 2016 when UNI beat Iowa State 25-20.
Bryant at UNLV
UNLV finished 5-7 last year and opens the season with Bryant. Quarterback Zevi Eckhaus and the Bulldogs only lost by one point to its season-opening FBS opponent Florida International in 2022, showing Bryant can keep up with FBS competition.
Monmouth at Florida Atlantic
Monmouth running back Jaden Shirden finished third in Walter Payton voting last fall following averaging 8.4 yards per carry. FAU ranked in the bottom third of the FBS in run defense in 2022. A big day from Shirden might lead to an upset.
ETSU at Jacksonville State
A few years ago, ETSU vs. Jacksonville State would’ve been a premier FCS matchup. In 2023, Jacksonville State will be in its first year as a full FBS member, giving ETSU a chance at an FBS upset. Could the Buccaneers knock off one of the FBS’s newest rookies?
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Week 2
Idaho at Nevada
Idaho has become one of the preseason FCS darlings around the country, led by the reigning Jerry Rice Award winner Gevani McCoy and his top target Hayden Hatten. The Vandals begin Week 1 on the road at a Nevada team that finished 2-10 last year, with one of the losses coming to an FCS opponent. Idaho has the talent to make it two consecutive years of FCS losses for Nevada.
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Albany at Hawaii
Reese Poffenbarger dazzled as a freshman for Albany last year. When he and the Great Danes head to Hawaii in Week 2, they’ll have a chance at an upset once morest an FBS team that went 3-10 last year. If Poffenbarger takes the next step at quarterback, he might stun Hawaii.
Southern Illinois at Northern Illinois
Southern Illinois is coming off of a down year, but the Salukis get to play an in-state FBS opponent in Week 2 that finished 3-9, Northern Illinois. Some of the closest FCS-FBS games are between in-state foes. Watch out for a Southern Illinois team that’s flown under the radar this offseason.
Morgan State at Akron
Damon Wilson enters year two at Morgan State and he has plenty of talent, especially defensively. Having a strong defense is pivotal to pulling off an FBS upset and Morgan State might have a shot once morest Akron, who went 2-10 last year with the 25th-worst scoring offense in the FBS.
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Holy Cross at Boston College
Holy Cross stunned Buffalo to land an FBS upset with a Hail Mary in 2022. The Bulls finished 4-8 the year before that Week 2 defeat. Boston College finished 3-9 last year — worse than Buffalo — and also plays Holy Cross in Week 2 of 2023. This matchup has the makings of a second FBS upset in as many years for Holy Cross.
New Hampshire at Central Michigan
New Hampshire won a share of the CAA last year while Central Michigan finished 4-8. This is a classic matchup between a good FCS team and a middling FBS team that might be primed for an upset.
Florida A&M at South Florida
South Florida finished 1-11 last year and will play SWAC East favorite Florida A&M in its second game in 2023. When the Bulls and Rattlers played in 2021, the teams tied 14-14 in second-half scoring. While South Florida won that game 38-17, 2023 might be a different story once morest an improved Florida A&M team.
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Week 3
Idaho at Cal
Idaho’s second shot at an FBS upset will come in Week 3. The Vandals will play a Cal team that finished 4-8 last year and has dealt with the turmoil of conference realignment during the offseason. Idaho might have a shot at pulling off two FBS upsets in one year.
Sacramento State at Stanford
This Week 3 FCS-FBS matchup is interesting because Stanford’s new head coach, Troy Taylor, coached at Sacramento State last year. Could Sacramento State beat its former head coach early in his FBS career?
Samford at Auburn
Samford has the best quarterback in the FCS in Michael Hiers and a loaded team that was the No. 6 seed in the FCS playoffs in 2022. Meanwhile, in-state foe Auburn is coming off a 5-7 season and bringing in a new head coach and quarterback this fall. This matchup between a good FCS team and a bad SEC team has all the makings of an upset.
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Week 5
Utah Tech at Colorado State
Colorado State has lost to FCS opponents in each of the last two seasons. In 2022, the Rams finished 3-9. Utah Tech didn’t finish any better last year at 4-7, but given Colorado State’s recent history, there’s a chance of an upset here.
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Week 6
William & Mary at Virginia
William & Mary is projected to be one of the best teams in the FCS in 2023 following winning the CAA and advancing to the FCS quarterfinals last year. When they play a 3-7 Virginia team in Week 6, the Tribe should have shaken off any early season rust with a chance at an in-state FBS win.
Howard at Northwestern
Northwestern has had a lot of turmoil this offseason following finishing 1-11 a year ago. They’ll play a rising Howard team that finished as MEAC co-champs last year. The Bison will have the benefit of this Week 6 matchup being their second FBS game giving them experience once morest an opponent from a higher level. Before the Bison play Northwestern, they’ll play a Robert Morris team that won ZERO games in 2022. That’s a combined one win between Howard’s Week 5 and 6 opponents. That might have the Bison primed for an FBS upset for the first time since 2017.
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Week 10
Merrimack at UMass
UMass didn’t lose to an FCS opponent in last year’s 1-11 season, but it lost two FCS games in 2021. Merrimack finished one game away from a conference title in 2022 and should be functioning at a high level late in the season entering this Week 10 FBS game.
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Week 11
Holy Cross at Army
Holy Cross will have a second shot at an FBS win in Week 11 once morest Army. Army finished 6-6 in 2022 and will face the Crusaders following what figures to be a highly emotional game once morest Air Force. This might be a trap game where Holy Cross pulls off the upset.
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Potential ranked upsets
There have been six FCS upsets over ranked FBS teams all-time. Here’s a look at some potential ranked upsets in 2023. Of course, the AP poll hasn’t been released yet, so the rankings listed are using the FBS Coaches’ Poll, or projecting a potential ranked team.
Mercer at No. 22 Ole Miss | Week 1
Southeast Missouri State at No. 17 Kansas State | Week 1
Austin Peay at No. 10 Tennessee | Week 2
UC Davis at No. 18 Oregon State | Week 2
Furman at South Carolina | Week 2
MAKING AN UPSET: The 7-step FCS blueprint to beating a ranked FBS team
All five FCS teams listed as potential ranked FBS upset threats have one thing in common: they’ll be in the FCS playoff hunt late into the season. That means these teams will be very good FCS teams, possibly being ranked themselves entering these FBS matchups.
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