2023-09-26 07:32:40
Only four months following the previous soap opera, the American government must once once more face the threat of a paralysis of its administration.
Will the United States be able to pay its civil servants next week? The world’s largest economy once once more faces the threat of a paralysis of his administration due to a political blockagefour months following coming close to defaulting on payment.
The 2024 budget must be adopted by Congress before 1is october. But without agreement between Democrats and Republicans, the federal administration will have to stop certain payments. The first victims would be the approximately two million federal civil servants, who would see their salary suspended for the duration of the “shutdown”.
Three questions to understand this new blockage.
What are the tension points?
A few months ago, it was a blockage around raising the debt ceiling that almost pushed the United States into default. This time it is le budget 2024 which turns into a standoff.
Tensions crystallize around a additional aid for Ukrainefollowing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Washington last Thursday.
Democratic and Republican senators are in favor. But, in the House of Representatives, a handful of elected officials from the Trumpist right refuse to cast their votes.
“I will not vote to spend a single cent on the war in Ukraine. I am for America first,” said Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene, someone close to Donald TrumpFriday in a video shot in front of a weight machine and published on the social network X (formerly Twitter).
The country has experienced four major “shutdowns” since 1976. The last, the longest, lasted more than a month at the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2019.
Are these tensions common?
The necessary vote on the budget in Congress is often subject to turbulence: the specter of the shutdown of federal services is regularly agitated by the Republican camp to obtain concessions.
But these recurring tensions are exacerbated This year by polarization in Congress. Failing to agree, a draft provisional budget might be adopted, which would offer a few months of respite to elected officials to find common ground.
The country has experienced four major shutdowns since 1976.. The last, the longest, lasted more than a month at the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2019, reducing the GDP of the United States by $3 billion, according to the Congressional Budget Services (CBO).
According to the Moody’s agency, the absence of an agreement would “underline the weakness of governance and institutions in the United States in terms of fiscal policy”.
What are the consequences?
Very often, an agreement is reached on the line. If this does not intervene in time, the consequences are nevertheless significant, to start for civil servants: considered “non-essential”, they will be asked to stay at home and will only receive their salary once the problem has been resolved.
Other inconveniences to expect: some food aid checks may not be sent, air traffic may be disrupted and national parks may not be maintained.
In a note published Monday, l’agence Moody’s stressed that the absence of an agreement would further “underline the weakness of governance and institutions in the United States in terms of fiscal policy” and would have “a negative effect on sovereign debt” American, while it is the last agency to give it the maximum rating, AAA.
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