2023-09-19 20:59:48
Falling inflation, labor shortage which is starting to disappear, consumption which is easing: the ingredients are there for the Federal Reserve to leave its rates at 5.25/5.50%. Verdict this Wednesday at 8 p.m.
The Fed might announce that it is maintaining its rates at their current level on Wednesday at the end of its meeting, however leaving the door open to possible additional increases, the dilemma still being to slow down inflation without causing it to wobble too much. strong economy.
Falling inflation, labor shortage which is starting to disappear, consumption which is easing: the ingredients are there for the American central bank to maintain its rates in the current range, from 5.25 to 5.50%.
The decision will be announced on Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. (6:00 p.m. GMT) in a press release, which will be published at the end of the meeting of the monetary policy committee (FOMC) which began Tuesday morning.
A surprise is unlikely, according to market participants who, almost all, expect to see rates remain stable, according to the CME Group assessment.
Does this mean that the cycle of rate increases, which began in March 2022 in the face of very high inflation, is over? Or are additional increases expected in the coming months?
The Fed should be careful not to be assertive on this issue, and seems more inclined to be cautious. Indeed, if markets take the end of rates for granted, financial conditions might become less restrictive, and prices might start to rise once more.
Ready to take on more if necessary
“The message from the Fed will be that higher key rates will remain on the table until the economy visibly slows and inflation approaches 2%,” comments Steve Englander, head of macroeconomics. American for Standard Chartered and former economist at the Fed, in a note.
“The FOMC will be ready” to raise rates further in the future “if necessary,” he believes.
The press conference that Fed President Jerome Powell will hold, just following the publication of the press release, at 2:30 p.m. (6:30 p.m. GMT) will therefore be particularly scrutinized.
As well as updated economic forecasts, in terms of GDP growth, inflation, employment, and changes in rates.
Since March 2022, the Fed’s main key rate has been raised 11 times, a very rapid pace, intended to curb inflation which was at its highest in more than 40 years.
This has since slowed down significantly, despite further acceleration this summer. It stood at 3.7% over one year in August, according to the CPI index.
The Fed favors the PCE index, which it wants to bring back to around 2%, and in July was 3.3% over one year. August data will be released on September 29.
Student loans, strike and shutdown
The situation also seems to be gradually rebalancing on the job market, following two years of labor shortage, which caused wages to soar. The unemployment rate rose to 3.8% in August, due to an influx of new workers, which should help calm inflation.
As for consumption, the engine of American economic growth, it has been vigorous since the start of the Covid crisis, fueling high inflation but it seems to be showing first signs of weakness.
And from October, millions of Americans will see their purchasing power further reduced, because they will have to start repaying their student loans once more, following a two and a half year break linked to Covid.
Furthermore, several clouds hang over the world’s largest economy.
Starting with the unprecedented strike started on Friday by the powerful automobile union, the UAW, among the “Big Three” American manufacturers, GM, Ford and Stellantis (resulting from the merger of the French PSA and the American Chrysler) .
Another threat is that of “shutdown”, a paralysis of the federal administration, if Republicans and Democrats in Congress do not agree on the government budget by the end of the month.
The Fed is meeting in full this week for the first time since February, following the departure of former Vice-President Lael Brainard, who left to lead the White House team of economic advisers.
She is replaced by Philip Jefferson, one of the Fed’s governors, while Adriana Kugler, previously the US representative to the World Bank, takes the vacant governor’s seat, becoming the first head of the original Fed Hispanic.
1695180187
#rate #hike #planned #Fed #door #remains #open