2023-09-18 05:30:05
PPolitically, the question of Brexit seems increasingly clear-cut in the United Kingdom, with a clear majority of Britons now believing that leaving the European Union (EU) was a failure. Around 60% of them think that the decision “was a mistake” ; only 10% think Brexit is going well ” for the moment “and just 30% think it will be positive ” long-term “.
In these circumstances, all the country’s ills end up being attributed to it: soaring inflation, collapsing schools, lengthening waiting lists in hospitals, stagnating economy, political instability… But is this really the case? case ?
The 1is September, the Office for National Statistics, the British equivalent of INSEE, published a major statistical revision. This covers the years 2020 and 2021, during the pandemic. She concluded that the British economy was significantly stronger than initially estimated. In the fourth quarter of 2021, gross domestic product (GDP) was finally 0.6% above its level in the fourth quarter of 2019, before the pandemic, instead of being 1.2% below, as previously calculated. Suddenly, with almost two points of GDP regained, the United Kingdom does not seem to be doing so bad.
If this new calculation is correct, and if the 2022 and 2023 statistics themselves are not completely changed, this means that the economy is now 1.5% above its pre-pandemic level. It is similar to France, significantly better than Germany (0%), but worse than Italy (2.1%), Japan (3.5%), Canada (3.5%) or the United States (6.1%). Obviously, the British government is jubilant. “These figures show that we have bounced back better than many other G7 economies”, praises Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor of the Exchequer. Would Brexit therefore have had no impact?
The waltz of numbers
To try to see clearly, we must understand the reason for the revision of the statistics. First of all, recalls John Springford, economist at the Center for European Reform think tank, this is a second revision: “The previous one, a year earlier, had been a downward correction of 1.7 points of GDP. This new estimate ultimately only cancels this first revision. » Furthermore, he warns, most other statistical institutes around the world are also working on a revision of their figures for the period of the pandemic, which risks leading to further changes in international comparisons.
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