2023-09-15 12:36:00
We can never repeat it enough, the worst of the energy crisis is behind us, but the situation remains tense. This “new normal” remains very volatile, and very influenced by the slightest climatic or geopolitical event. We saw this in August with a sharp rise in gas prices which was not completely absorbed. In recent hours, several elements have added up and do not bode well, as Damien Ernst, professor at the University of Liège and energy specialist, warns. “What is happening at the moment is very worrying,” he sighs. The three major energy commodities globally – gas, oil and coal – are on the rise once more. For oil, we are facing higher demand than supply, which is putting enormous stress on the markets. We have risen to 93 dollars per barrel, and we are clearly heading towards 100 or 120 dollars if nothing changes. Furthermore, the euro is losing value once morest the dollar; That doesn’t help anything.”
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This is not going to bring down the price of a liter of diesel, set at €2.02/l this Thursday. “This situation will impact the consumer, especially since the Russian market – which still ships a lot to Europe – is facing a delicate situation for its domestic supply, and risks reducing its exports.”
Regarding gas, it is a potential attack on a Russian gas pipeline. “This is the kind of scenario that I have feared for months,” continues Damien Ernst. The risk is that this will multiply and that there will be a Russian response in Ukraine or elsewhere. This can cause a new crisis of enormous magnitude!”
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He also mentions the coal market, although it is less followed by the general public. “It’s a mistake to put it aside,” he assures. Asian industry mainly runs on coal, and an increase in its market value can increase prices through a rebound effect.”
In the coming weeks, he therefore fears “a structural increase in prices”. “We should not fear an explosion in prices like in 2022, but maintaining very high prices can weigh just as much on households,” he concludes.
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