2023-09-11 15:46:00
Gen. Milley warns of winter’s impact on Ukraine counteroffensive, as Kyiv suggests longer combat period
America’s top general warned that Ukraine has only six weeks left before cold weather hampers its counteroffensive, even as Kyiv is signaling it might continue fighting well into winter.
“There is still a reasonable amount of time left, between 30 and 45 days of fighting,” the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, told the BBC this Sunday. From then on, mud and rain will likely affect maneuverability on the battlefield.
In keeping with the “glass half full” message from recent Biden administration officials, Milley said the counteroffensive had made “very steady progress” since it began in early June.
“The Ukrainians aren’t done, this battle isn’t over, and they haven’t finished the combat part of what they’re trying to accomplish. It’s too early to say how this is going to end.”
Reports on Sunday suggested only gradual progress around one of Ukraine’s main attack zones, near the village of Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region, which is on the way to the strategic city of Tokmak.
An unofficial Telegram channel belonging to the 46th Brigade, which has proven to be a reliable source of information, said troops had advanced east of a neighboring village, but warned that Russian forces still held higher ground nearby. , which gave them an advantage.
Meanwhile, an online update from the southern “Tavria” command said: “We continue to make small progress in the Robotyne area. About 1.5 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory have been liberated,” although it did not specify how long it was referring to. .
Asked Friday regarding the pace of his forces’ advance, President Volodymyr Zelensky insisted that Ukraine still had the initiative, but urged attendees at a conference in Kyiv not to view the counteroffensive as a feature film made in 90 minutes.
One of Zelensky’s senior security officials, who spoke at the same event the next day, indicated that Ukrainian forces might continue attacking well into next winter.
Kyrylo Budanov, head of military intelligence, acknowledged that the counteroffensive was moving more slowly than he would like. Russian defensive lines were well planned, he said, and heavily mined, making the situation on the battlefield “complicated.”
But although the cold was a reality that the military might not ignore, “hostilities will continue, the counteroffensive will continue.”
Earlier in the week, retired US general David Petraeus appeared to offer a similar forecast at another conference in Kyiv, saying “this will last all winter.”
Comparisons with Ukraine’s first major counteroffensive, in 2022, also suggest a longer timeframe might be possible.
Russian forces were pushed east out of the Kharkiv region exactly one year ago, culminating in the recapture of the town of Lyman by Ukrainian forces around September 30.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south continued for another six weeks and did not end until November 10 with the liberation of Kherson.
Analysts and policymakers continue to debate whether Ukraine should have maintained the momentum or whether Western allies had not supplied enough weapons and ammunition to make it possible.
Kyiv’s supporters also fear that any halt in offensive operations over the coming winter will only serve to give Russia the opportunity to further strengthen its defenses.
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