2023-09-05 08:30:00
(Washington) – One Washington The holiday period is coming to an end and the streets return to their usual rhythm, with intense traffic and constant lobbying in the political and international centers of the US capital. However, to the Argentine case he didn’t care regarding him stop and go of the summer agenda and He remained active throughout the summer at the negotiating tables of the main world organizations and of the Joe Biden government itself, because it is a fact that can become a paradigm in the Latin American region, which will revive or bury the Western strategy in world geopolitics. Although the Russian invasion of the Ukraine gained center stage, The “uncertain” Argentine electoral future generates special interest from the North American giant regarding the next steps of the acquaintance Sergio Massathe complete strategy of a Patricia Bullrich that seeks to make footing, and the plan of the unknown Javier Mileywith antecedents in the ’90s.
“After months of negotiation, we thought we would have a vacation from the Argentina case. But we still cannot disconnect in the face of the continuous news that occurs in the country”confesses a source who participated in the approval of the fifth and sixth revision of the foreign debt repayment targets with the International Monetary Fund. There was not only staff technical, but interests from different countries were involved, although carved into the go-ahead by the United States government. He aim was to release the disbursements, from a blind eye to the numbers of the economy, to leave the electoral scene; but the surprise, with the winning figure of Milei and her dollarization planforced the US to closely follow local fluctuations. “It is one thing to campaign and another, very different, is to govern”they repeat in different diplomatic spheres.
“We are going to continue governing,” said Massa at a fundraising dinner with contributions of up to $5,000,000
There is a coincidence that crossed the public sector, as well as the private: the future of the country is crossed by the benefits that the exploitation of natural resources can generate. “There are many companies that have invested in energy and mining and others that want to be there. We are very interested”, admits a US official. At a time of rising demand in these sectors, the central countries are waiting for a stable scenario for business. For that, US companies call for “clear rules” and “predictability” for investments in Argentina. The Biden government repeats that same axiom. And, despite the uncertainty generated by the three-thirds scheme in the PASO elections, the owners of world finance, including the powerful New York investment fund Blackrock, celebrate that “80% of the electorate voted market friendly”.
Looking forward to future plans
“It is more difficult to imagine what the management of Javier Milei will be like than in the cases of Sergio Massa or Patricia Bullrich”, they maintain in the White House, from where they see “too many unknowns of the vote” that have arisen in the primary elections. It is clear that Massa has the advantage of the link he maintains with some sectors of US power: “We know him for the relevant positions he held in his public life and the fact that he is a minister is something positive, because he takes responsibility for what comes from now on.” But they do not close the door on the representative of Together for Change: “De Bullrich we understand your proposals very well, but the plan needs more details”, indicate other sources more linked to the economic areas. All voices, however, agree that “Neither Massa, nor Bullrich, nor Milei presented a concrete plan for the future”.
Until exhaustion, in Washington they clarified that neither the United States nor international organizations “will get involved in the sovereign decisions of Argentina”, for which reason they avoided supporting or reversing an eventual dollarization plan, raised by Milei. “He told us that it will not be done immediately,” they clarify in the North American offices. Howeveras a kind of warning remember that the creator of convertibility, Domingo Cavallo, tried to resort to a basket of currencies in his plan to escape the parity of the peso with the dollar that he knew how to implement in the 1990s, and that imploded in 2001. “Milei presented advisers related to this process”, they stand out in the US, where they also ask to avoid repeating the last great Argentine crisis of 22 years ago .
For Milei’s teacher, the question is whether his plan is “socially viable”
Carlos Melconian passed through the IMF offices, who would be Minister of Economy if JxC reaches the Casa Rosada. Before, Minister Massa had been there to close the goal review agreement. With Milei, the meetings were virtual. “The opposition spaces are putting together their plans and their teams; while the ruling party is focused on going through the crisis, but did not reveal if it has a plan for following December 10 ”, they highlight in Washington. For now, there is a central concern in the Fund: “The necessary recommendations were made, but the Government is free to make its decisions. Then you will have to argue your measures in the November review. What is not clear is the plan, because following the devaluation the gap fell, but then it rose rapidly. And the pass through (the transfer prices) was high. If there are no accompanying measures, what is the devaluation for?”, they asked themselves in the multilateral credit organization.
The Macri effect
“To say that the market solves everything is a mistake”asserts Alejandro Wernera former director of the IMF for the western hemisphere, in a talk with journalists in which he participated PROFILEwithin the framework of the 14th edition of the program Key Opinion Leaders who organizes the American Chamber of Commerce in Argentina, AMCHAM. With the same concept that he has of the dollarization plan and the opening of a capital account in the form of shockensures that Massa’s agreement with the Fund was “symbolic”. “The Fund is going to get as far away from Argentina as possible, and Massa from the IMF,” says the current analyst at Georgetown Americas Institutewhile acknowledging that the main problem that the managing director had to take on, Kristalina Georgievaat the beginning of his administration, was the exit from the conflict that had generated the loan to the government of Mauricio Macri. The arrival of the pandemic solved part of that problem for him, or, in any case, he postponed it.
In the White House, they believe that the presence of the former president has two meanings. On the one hand, they consider that it may be the key to providing governance to Milei, in the event that it reaches the Casa Rosada, but does not have a legislative structure to implement the promised measures. “Also can be the one who puts limits to the follies” that the libertarian wants to do, they assure. But, on the other, the figure of Macri represents “frustration” that generated the lack of answers to the hope of a change of era that the voters had chosen in 2015. “Everyone was convinced of the change, but the fundamental reforms never came. That’s part of the skepticism that poured into the vote for Milei. If she sticks to it, there may be a loss of prestige, ”said an analyst linked to the Democratic party in the United States.
Patricia Bullrich presented 6 members of her government team: Peronists, radicals and PRO cadres
Yet in The United States awaits an “inevitable change of era” in Argentinawhere the next president should “inevitably” make “difficult” decisions. For this, they demand “political consensus” to be able to “quickly” overcome the effects of a state adjustment. “The new government must assume the loss of political capital at the beginning of his tenure implement the necessary reforms”, they warn from Washington. The role played by the Biden administration in favor of disbursing dollars from the IMF to Argentina demonstrated the interest that exists in North America in the country, without neglecting a prudent distance to avoid being tied to a new social crisis, similar to 2001.
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