2023-08-30 12:35:41
The US Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revision for April-June (second quarter) has been revised downward from the preliminary figures. Although private consumption was revised upward, the downward revision of capital investment affected the overall figures.
Key point U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) revised at an annual rate of 2.1% quarter-on-quarter Revised downward from preliminary estimate of 2.4% Economists’ median forecast of 2.4% growth in private consumption last quarter: 2% growth revised up 1.7% from preliminary estimate of 1.6%, median economist estimate was up 1.8%
Bar graph: U.S. GDP, Line graph: Private consumption (both quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Gross Domestic Income (GDI), another key indicator, increased by 0.5% in April-June following declining for the past two quarters. GDP and GDI averaged 1.3%, the fastest growth in almost a year. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the committee that dates business cycles, is watching the average closely.
The U.S. economy continues to move forward, supported by continued strength in the labor market and robust consumption. The July-September quarter (third quarter) is also widely expected to accelerate growth driven by consumer spending.
These strong trends have led many economists to scale back or even cancel recession forecasts altogether. On the other hand, a sustained pick-up in economic activity might force the Fed to put more brakes on the economy to ensure inflation stays low.
April-June corporate profits (adjusted, before tax) fell 0.4%. This reflects the decline in profits of financial institutions.
Inflation indicators that the US Fed pays attention to have been revised downward from preliminary figures. The core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.7% annualized from the previous quarter, the slowest increase in more than two years.
See table for detailed statistics.
Original title:US Economy Expands at Revised 2.1% Pace in Second Quarter(excerpt)
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