2023-08-29 15:24:15
Global Markets Group Bank of Ayudhya Ltd. (public) have a view on the direction of the baht this week that The baht this week tends to move in a range. 34.85-35.50 baht/dollar compared to last week The baht appreciated at 35.10 baht/dollar following trading during 34.84-35.42 baht/dollar The baht returned to the strongest level of the cycle. 2 week as the political picture became clearer. While the dollar strengthened once morest all major currencies last week. The dollar index hit its highest point since the beginning of the month. Mi.Y. The euro tumbled following weak eurozone economic data prompted market expectations of the European Central Bank.(ECB)to stop raising interest rates The president of the US Federal Reserve(Fed)emphasis on work Jackson Hole Symposium that inflation is still too high however He sees policy decisions to be made cautiously. The pound traded at the lowest in the cycle. 10 week While the market lowered the Bank of England’s interest rate target.(BOE)After poor economic activity numbers however Foreign investors buy Thai stocks and bonds net 1,204 million baht and 4,706 million baht respectively
for an overview this week. Global Markets Group Krungsri indicate that
Investors will follow inflation data. PCE and US employment While the Fed emphasized that policy action will depend mainly on economic numbers. We expect the dollar to tremble in a slightly stronger zone at this stage. however The interest rate futures market indicates that there is a probability of 80.5% that the Fed will keep interest rates at 5.25-5.50% and have a chance 19.5% that the Fed will raise interest rates 25bp in the meetingdate 19-20 g.Y. in addition Weakness in the Chinese and European economies is likely to limit the recovery in risky asset prices. such as Stocks and Commodities
for domestic issues Krungsri assesses that concerns regarding prolonged high interest rates in the US and a weak Chinese economy have made investors hesitant to significantly increase their positions in developing markets, including Thai baht assets. while the quarterly GDP 2/66 of Thailand only grew 1.8% compared to the same period last year which is much lower than expected reflect the export Reduced investment and government spending The NESDB lowered its economic growth forecast this year to 2.5-3.0% The Ministry of Commerce reports that monthly exports g.c. reduce 6.2% contracted for the tenth consecutive month due to the economic slowdown of trading partner countries While the total imports in Feb..c.shrink 11.1% As a result, Thailand has a trade deficit. 1.98 billion dollars
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