2023-08-28 18:55:00
Exxon Mobil Corp. considers that the world will fail to cut emissions fast enough to limit global warming to 2°C above the pre-industrial standards by 2050 due to the increasing economic growthparticularly in developing countries.
Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will be 25 billion metric tons in 2050, more than double the 11 billion tons needed to meet the 2 degree scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, as indicated Exxon on Monday in its annual Energy Outlook report. Although this represents a decrease of more than 25% compared to the peak of 34,000 million tons predicted for this decadeis far from what is necessary to meet the goals of the 2016 Paris Agreement.
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In 2050, there will be 2 billion more people on the planet, an increase of 25%and the increase in the standard of living it will boost consumption of all types of energy, according to Exxon. Global per capita gross domestic product, a measure of purchasing power, is projected to increase by 85% between now and 2050, which will increase the demand for manufacturing, commercial transport and other industrial activities, especially in Asia. The highest fuel efficiency will lower energy consumption in the developed world.
“The capacity of the world to reduce these emissions by 25%Even as the world economy grows by more than 100%, is a testament to the significant progress that is expected to be made”Exxon stated. “Even so, more is needed to achieve the required emission reduction levels to keep the global temperature rise below 2°C”.
the use of oil “it will decrease significantly” in personal transport, but will remain “essential” for shipping, long-haul trucking, and aviation, for which demand is expected to rise, Exxon said. If all new cars sold in 2035 were electric, Oil consumption in 2050 would be 85 million barrels per day, 17% less than today, and more or less the same as in 2010.
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Exxon presents its perspectives as a realistic “projection”, rather than other scenarios that “start from a hypothetical result to identify the factors necessary to achieve it”, explains the company. While this approach can be beneficial to a company that has committed its future to oil and gasit is also a reality check and a warning that governments and industry must accelerate emissions reductions if the world wants to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
Exxon Climate Studies have proven to be very accurate in the past. A review of the company’s projections from 1977 to 2014 by University of Miami academics, including Geoffrey Supran, concluded that Exxon scientists correctly predicted rising global temperatures due to CO2 emissions, with a 1985 study being 99% accurate.
Supran criticized Exxon for publicizing uncertainties associated with climate science for decades to protect its fossil fuel business., a conclusion that Exxon has consistently rejected. CEO Darren Woods testified to Congress in 2021 that the company had long recognized the risks of climate change and that its publicity materials were in line with the science of the time.
Translated by Paola Torre.
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