2023-08-27 13:50:02
This week the market will get several important data on US inflation, employment and housing prices, as well as Pinduoduo (PDD-US), HP (HPQ-US),Best Buy (BBY-US), Broadcom (AVGO-US) and other stocks, the European Central Bank will release the minutes of its July meeting on Thursday.
This week’s trading notes (0827-0902)
1. The latest U.S. employment data
The week begins on Tuesday with more U.S. employment data, starting with the July Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which tracks the number of job vacancies, hiring, resignations and departures for the month. The number of job vacancies is expected to have fallen to 9.57 million last month, down slightly from 9.58 million in June.
On Wednesday, payroll provider ADP will release its national employment report for August, tracking growth in private sector payrolls. Private employers likely added 280,000 jobs this month, down from 324,000 in July.
That will set the stage for Friday’s August nonfarm payrolls report. U.S. employers likely added 180,000 jobs in the past month, down slightly from 187,000 in July, which would be the smallest gain since December 2020, when they lost 268,000 jobs.
2. House price data
House price data will be updated on Tuesday, including the June Case-Shiller National House Price Index and the FHFA House Price Index. Prices tracked by the Case-Shiller index may have edged up in June, marking a fifth straight monthly rebound, the market expects.
Home prices have continued to rise because, despite high mortgage rates, the market remains as competitive as ever thanks to strong demand and tight supply of inventory. But at the same time, lower affordability has put off many would-be homebuyers.
3. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its July personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index this week, which is expected to rise by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year, an acceleration from 3% in June.
In a speech at Jackson Hole, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the preferred measure of inflation remains the core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy. This index peaked at 5.4% in February 2022 and gradually declined to 4.3% in July. “Core commodity inflation fell sharply, especially durable goods, as tighter monetary policy and the slow unwinding of supply-demand imbalances are leading to a decline in inflation,” Powell said.
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