2023-08-25 22:24:17
Laughing, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen sat in the cockpit of a two-seater F-16. The two heads of government were in a good mood when they announced the delivery of a total of 19 Danish fighter jets to Ukraine a week ago. Selenskyj spoke of a “historic step”.
The Netherlands also wants to hand over F-16 fighter jets to Kiev soon, and 42 of them. This allows Ukraine to significantly upgrade its air force. So far, this consists of only 100 old Mig and Sukhoi machines of Soviet design, which are already 40 and 50 years old. Nevertheless, one can hardly speak of “historical”. Because the use of the F-16 fighter jets is not a game changer and will not bring any groundbreaking changes in the Ukraine war.
Harmonious: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selenkskyj and Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen in an F-16
Which: picture alliance / abaca
“There is no doubt that this will strengthen Ukraine’s defense readiness,” says Italian military expert Thomas C. Theiner. “But the F-16 alone will not contribute to a radical change.” Especially since it is not yet clear when the aircraft will be delivered. According to Denmark, the first F-16 should be handed over “at the end of the year”. Their use depends on the training of the pilots, which can last up to a year, depending on the level of training.
In the course of the Ukraine war, there have already been discussions regarding so-called game changers several times. The reason for this was in particular the Himar precision missile system from the USA and the recently deployed British cruise missiles of the Storm Shadow type. These weapon systems undoubtedly play an important role, as do the upcoming F-16 fighter jets. But it is not individual elements, but rather the interaction of branches of arms and troops that can bring regarding a change.
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“The war in Ukraine in particular, with a front line over 1,000 kilometers long, large geographical and sometimes climatic differences, is a highly complex system that depends on numerous factors,” says weapons specialist Theiner. So monocausal explanations won’t get you very far.
This was particularly evident in the recent often harsh criticism of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. It ran too slowly and had failed, according to more or less expert users of relevant Internet platforms.
Even reputable US media peddled the narrative of Ukraine’s failed attack. They quoted anonymous sources in American government circles and published figures on Ukraine’s losses, some of which were poorly researched. The “New York Times” spoke of 20 percent losses in western weapon systems. Anyone who took the trouble to do the math quickly found out that it was less than half of that.
“This idea is primitive and false”
“Either these sources have no idea how war works, or they have deliberately obfuscated something to justify themselves,” said Phillips P. O’Brien, historian and professor of strategic studies at St Andrews University in Scotland. In one of his weekly analyzes of the Ukraine war, O’Brien also cleared up one of the most stubborn clichés regarding modern war, which is often found in criticism of the Ukrainian counter-offensive.
For example, the Ukraine is accused of having achieved “much too little ground gain” with its advances. “This notion that battles are only decided,” writes the historian, “when forces meet on the battlefield is so primitive and false that I cannot believe people seem to take it at face value.”
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Ukraine’s offensive operations, non-linear and surprising, cannot be measured solely by territorial gains. Rather, it is regarding wear and tear, as the Institute for the Study of War in Washington has repeatedly emphasized. “Defending Russian forces are expected to be significantly weakened, and current counter-offensive operations are likely to create more favorable conditions for larger, significant operations.”
What is meant is a large-scale war of movement, which many had already expected in the first days of the counter-offensive, but were disappointed. Only, war is not a Hollywood film and works according to more complex mechanisms.
Advances in small formations
An important focus of Ukrainian combat operations is also taking place far behind the actual line of contact. Drones destroy Russian command posts hundreds of kilometers behind the front lines. The major bridges leading to the occupied Crimea peninsula are all believed to be damaged or destroyed.
A Russian S-400 air defense system exploded in Crimea on Wednesday. Just one day later, a Ukrainian special commando blew up more Russian military installations. Ukraine is fighting the invasion of Russia at all levels, and it seems quite effectively.
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“We should be very cautious regarding giving advice on Ukraine’s strategy and tactics,” agrees German security expert and political advisor Nico Lange. “No one here has military experience with such framework conditions as in southern Ukraine.”
After failed attempts to break through, Kiev has switched to very slow progress with small formations, Lange explains. “This is not a combined arms battle from our textbooks.”
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