2023-08-23 02:31:19
According to official figures from the National Electoral Council (CNE), González, from the Citizen Revolution, obtained 33.31% of the vote, once morest 23.66% for Noboa, from Acción Democrática Nacional (ADN). Both will meet in the second round on October 15.
LOOK: Luisa González and Daniel Noboa will play the second round in Ecuador on October 15
The analyzes in the local media are focused on the Noboa phenomenon and on the reduced possibilities of correísmo to return to power. Who is it? Why did it go to the second round? What do you propose? What alliances can you forge to win the Presidency? they wonder. In this note we will give the answers:
Luisa González and Daniel Noboa will meet in the second round on October 15. (Rodrigo BUENDIA / AFP).
/ RODRIGO BUENDIA
businessman and politician
Daniel Noboa was born in Guayaquil on November 30, 1987. He is the son of millionaire businessman Álvaro Novoa, who ran for the Presidency of Ecuador five times. His mother is Anabella Azín, doctor, assembly member and legislator of the last Constituent Assembly of 2007.
He studied business administration at New York University’s Stern School of Business and received a public administration degree from the Harvard Kennedy School. He also completed a master’s degree in governance and political communication at George Washington University.
Ecuador voted on Sunday to elect
to the replacement of President Guillermo Lasso and a new National Assembly until 2025, following the president appealed to the Death Cross to close the Legislature and cut his mandate.
At the age of 18, he founded his own company, DNA Entertainment Group, dedicated to organizing events. Years later he went on to work at Corporación Noboa, where he became the youngest shipping director in the company’s history.
In the 2021 elections, he won a seat in the National Assembly of Ecuador.
What does Daniel Noboa propose?
Ecuadorian analysts place Daniel Noboa on the center right, something he denies. He assures that his vote is left and center-left.
His campaign proposal is divided into four axes: social, economic, institutional and productive and environmental. He says that a government of his will aim to have the public accounts in order and will appeal to fiscal responsibility.
He believes in free enterprise and social responsibility.
He has assured that he will combat crime and strengthen justice and security institutions. In this sense, he proposes a police reform.
It also proposes holding a popular consultation to introduce reforms to the Constitution in matters of justice.
He has promised a tax reform so that those who have more pay more.
Besides…
Who is Luisa González and what does she propose?
Luisa Gonzalez was born in Quito 45 years ago and is a single mother of two daughters.
Is a lawyer with a master’s degree in International Economics and Development from the Complutense University of Madrid.
During the decade of the Government of Rafael Correa (2007-2017) he held different positions in the ministries of Production, Tourism, Foreign Relations, the Secretariat of Public Administration and the presidency, among others.
He has been an assembly member between May 2021 and May 2023.
During the first round he said that their main challenges are insecurity, hunger, unemployment and health.
His government plan highlights the achievements of Correa’s Citizen Revolution movement when he was in power.
Has promised a strong hand once morest crime and the strengthening of the police, the armed forces and the intelligence systems.
He assures that he will fight once morest corruption, especially in the health system. It will provide “massive” credits to indebted families and the agricultural sector and will subsidize the price of fuel.
He has also said that if he wins the elections, Rafael Correa will be his adviser. But he clarified: “The one who will show his face and make the decisions is Luisa González and the final decision will be mine.”
Rafael Correa cannot return to Ecuador because he is being sentenced to 8 years in prison for the “Bribes 2012-2016” case.
During his tenure in the National Assembly, opposed the legalization of abortion for rapewhich was decriminalized by the Constitutional Court in 2021.
Why did Noboa go to the second round?
Mauricio Salvador-Alarcón, political analyst and executive director of the Citizenship and Development Foundation, told El Comercio that last week’s polls already showed a rise in Noboa’s electoral preference, as a result of his participation in Sunday’s debate. August 13 and a non-confrontational campaign, which was focused on capturing young audiences.
“Several analysts, including myself, saw that there might be options for Noboa to finish well positioned, but not in the second round, it was even said that even losing he would win because he wanted to run for the Presidency in 2025,” he said.
For Professor Santiago Basabe, political scientist and researcher at FLACSO Ecuador, there is no explanation for the Noboa phenomenon, but he tests some hypotheses.
The first, he assures El Comercio, took place following the presidential debate, where he would have captured the vote of the young and many undecided.
Another factor would be the support of his candidacy from the unlimited economic resources of his family, the electoral clientele that might be derived from there and the harvest of information amassed over decades by his father, Basabe indicates.
Ecuadorian presidential candidate Daniel Noboa, of the National Democratic Action party, speaks following learning the first results of the presidential election. (AFP).
/ JIMMY NEGRETE
What will happen in the second round between Noboa and González?
After the first round, Noboa will now have to attract additional support to defeat Luisa González, who in turn has the challenge of increasing the hard vote of Correísmo, which stands at 30%.
In this sense, Mauricio Salvador-Alarcón notes that in his message on Sunday, Daniel Noboa already revealed his position regarding alliances that allow him to reach the Presidency. “He does not want to build them around anticorreism or a negative sentiment, but around issues of sharing principles, positions, seeking alternative solutions to people’s problems.”
“Daniel Noboa has a high chance of capitalizing on the young vote, which was also obtained by Otto Sonnenholzner and Jan Topic. In addition, even if he turns out to be contrary to his statements, the anti-correista vote, the people who vote for anyone except the correísmo candidate, may end up supporting him, ”says Mauricio Salvador-Alarcón.
As for Luisa González, Mauricio Salvador-Alarcón points out that the result obtained by her is very similar to that of Andrés Arauz in the first round of 2021, and anticipates that the second round campaign will be similar to the one that pitted Arauz once morest Guillermo. Lasso.
“I think we will see the same thing as in that second round, a change in message, a change in the way the candidates act to try to capture the vote that eluded them in the first round, and that is a huge challenge for Luisa. González, considering that in the first stage correísmo was in charge of presenting the message and image of her as faithful and loyal to Rafael Correa”, he notes.
Ernesto Anzieta, a lawyer, security specialist and international relations analyst, points out that Correísmo opted for a “one-turn” strategy, the same one that appealed to the past and to a job well done.
“Correa, as a fundamental candidate, summons a tough electorate, but falls short in appealing to the young and closes the doors to coalitions, which takes away the room for maneuver in the face of a second round, where the majority of the voters of other candidates would join Noboa Is it too late to rethink a strategy? Difficult to say in a country where faits accomplis can end up changing, but the feeling in the correistas’ own ranks is that defeat is quite probable”, Anzieta highlights to El Comercio.
Opinion
The possibilities of Noboa and González
By Luis Echeverría, Ecuadorian sociologist and political analyst
Con Daniel Noboa we are facing a form of outsider in the sense that it is a candidate that no one had in the second round, because he had remained outside the scene of the discussions and acute conflicts that had been characterizing the campaign, exacerbated by the assassination of Fernando Villavicencio.
But there was a very important moment, which was the debatewhere the figure of Noboa as someone who, before entering that discussion scenario regarding insecurity, followed an almost lateral line with a certain pragmatism, and trying to respond to demands that are also on the scenebut they were overshadowed.
He proposed what to do to move the country forward, especially addressing young voters, who are one of the most important portions of the entire electorate.
He won the debate. And from there a sustained growth begins, while other candidates began to weaken.
That background and his image of a young man just entering politics can be an advantage when channeling the vote of the other contenders, despite the fact that in Ecuador it is very difficult to endorse of voting because the parties are not solid institutions that can give instructions to their militants.
A Luisa Gonzalez Yes, it will be very difficult for her to get new support, because she obeys a direction that comes from Belgium, from Rafael Correa and therefore, has been flagged as a defender of correísmoraising a position that is more anchored in the supposed success of the management of Correa.
She has not been the bearer of a new discourse. In the debate he did not develop his own position, it is anchored in the nostalgic defense of what correísmo was. I think that in the face of a demand that the country has for solutions to employment, security and economic problems, it does not allow it to accumulate more than what it already has, it will be able to grow a little but not enough to earn.
Finally, in ideological terms we might say that the 2021 Arauz-Lasso duel is reissuedthat confrontation between neopopulism and the center-right.
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