2023-08-21 09:50:11
For Tunisia, a large part of the annual needs is provided by imports and the rate of dependence on imported cereals is 33% for durum wheat, more than 85.3% for soft wheat and 71.3 % for barley, ie an average rate of 63.33% for all cereals. The grain sector therefore remains fragile and very dependent on the world market.
After the 2008 crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, food security today represents one of the most important immediate challenges facing several countries, including Tunisia.
Faced with such a situation, public and private actors in the country and in the Arab and African region in general are called upon to reconsider the choices and policies in relation to these notions of food security and sovereignty with a view to effective implementation of the fundamental right to food. It is with this in mind that the Tunisian Forum for Economic and Social Rights (Ftdes) has just carried out a study which aims to present the concepts of the right to food, food security and sovereignty and their implications and the challenges that Tunisia must take up in these areas and particularly in the current global context.
A chronic deficit of production
The authors of this study — called “Food security and sovereignty and the right to food in Tunisia” —, Dr Azzam Mahjoub and Mr. Mohamed Mondher Belghith, did not fail to recall that following the Covid-19, which had obvious economic, financial and commercial repercussions on a global scale and on Tunisia, the war in Ukraine is aggravate these sometimes disastrous consequences, particularly on the situation of the food systems of the countries most exposed to food dependence.
Considered among the main producers and exporters of cereals, Ukraine and Russia represent 30% of wheat exports in the world, while the ongoing conflict – the duration of which is unknown – has caused disruptions in production and trade in these commodities with the fall in the quantities traded and the rise in prices.
“According to the World Food Program (WFP), the war in Ukraine will bring the world food crisis to levels never seen before… In some countries, the grain stock only lasts a few months while waiting for new local harvests. The risk of an acute food crisis in a number of heavily importing countries is therefore not negligible”, underlines the document.
For Tunisia, which produces only regarding 50% of its wheat needs, the country imports 60% of its wheat consumption from these two countries at war, and in particular from Ukraine since 45 to 50% of its imports come from this country. These figures vary from year to year depending on local harvests. According to the State Cereals Office, out of 1,740,000 t of imported wheat, 984,016 t came from Ukraine. Cereal imports alone represent more than 51% of the country’s food imports, according to an analysis of the cereal sector in Tunisia, carried out by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
Moreover, according to this same source (FAO), each year, a Tunisian consumes 74 kg of bread, while the country, although a cereal producer, suffers from a chronic production deficit.
“Although cereal growing occupies nearly 33% of the usable agricultural area (UAA) and mobilizes 250,000 farms in Tunisia, production remains fluctuating and the country suffers from a chronic deficit of around 50% on average compared to to the needs of a population in continuous growth… As a result, the majority of annual needs are met by imports and the rate of dependence on imported cereals is 33% for durum wheat, more than 85.3% for common wheat and 71.3% for barley, ie an average rate of 63.33% for all cereals. The cereal sector therefore remains, in Tunisia, a fragile sector and very dependent on the world market”, the document further specifies.
Double-digit inflation
In its fifth chapter, the study focused on the problem of food price inflation and the increase in social vulnerabilities, since purchasing power is, without a doubt, one of the essential elements that determine food security and sovereignty.
For Tunisia, several structural and cyclical factors, specific to the country or imported, have led in recent years to a surge in prices and in particular the prices of food products. In addition, INS data indicate that in September 2022, inflation confirms its upward trend by increasing once once more to reach the rate of 9.1% following 8.6% in August 2022. But the he surge in consumer prices has taken on an exponential pace since September 2021. This increase is mainly explained by the acceleration in the pace of increases in the prices of food products and non-alcoholic beverages at a rate of 13% once morest 11.9 % in August 2022. INS data also show that it is food products that record the highest inflation rates, year-on-year.
Let’s talk numbers, on a year-on-year basis, the inflation rate for food products (excluding non-alcoholic beverages), whose weighting represents almost a quarter of the consumer price index, rose from 7.3%, in 2019 , to 5.4% in 2020, before recovering to 7.2% in 2021 and growing sharply in 2022 reaching 13.3%. For food products, whose prices are free, this rate reaches 15.4%.
Moreover, the trend in inflation rates by product group shows that edible oils recorded the highest rate with 20.9% well before the war in Ukraine, which further amplified their price. Meats, following a slight drop in their rate in 2021, resumed their upward trend in 2022, recording a rate of 19.8%. According to INS data, this increase is mainly due to the increase in poultry prices of 27.4%.
If the increase in the prices of vegetable oils comes from the increase in world prices following the war in Ukraine, the surge in the prices of poultry, eggs (25%) and meat (sheep 14% – beef 12, 4%) reflects the difficulties of the poultry and livestock sectors in general due to the surge in the price of animal feed, the weakness or absence of effective intervention by the public authorities in this area. However, and although facing the same difficulties and the disorganization of the sectors, the prices of products derived from cereals and milk experienced a relatively less strong evolution (with 14% and 9.7% respectively), due to the administered prices and commodity compensation.
“Indeed, the inflation rate for food products, whose prices are administered, was 0.5%. However, it is important to note that the alarming situation of public finances has caused the State to find it difficult to honor its commitments to national producers or international suppliers, which affect the entire sector and create shortages which help to promote soaring prices and speculation… The worrying increase in double-digit food inflation constitutes a threat to food security and the consolidation of the effectiveness of the right to food. The strong dependence on food imports and the volatility of the world prices of these products constitute another source of vulnerability for Tunisia and its food sovereignty and weigh heavily on the compensation budget and the already highly weakened financial balance. public”, underline the authors of the study.
Commodity compensation, a point of contention
Regarding compensation expenditure, the document points out that according to the Ministry of Finance, expenditure increased by 51% in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the same period of 2021. However, if the increase in compensation expenditure of the fuel, which accounts for 67% of overall compensation expenditure, was 370% compared to the same period of 2021, the envelope devoted to consumption expenditure on basic products decreased by 53%. It does not exceed 0.4 billion dinars, or 19% of compensation expenditure, which explains the deficiencies recorded in this area and the shortages observed.
“According to a report published by the Ministry of Finance in 2022, the compensation budget reached, at the end of 2021, for a whole year, 6 billion dinars, an increase of 34% compared to 2020 with 4.5 billion dinars. Relegated to second place, commodity compensation cost 2.2 billion, compared to 2.4 billion dinars in 2020, a decrease of 8.9%. Thus, basic products only benefited from 36% of the compensation budget, knowing that its share was 55% in 2015. Fuel compensation has since occupied the first rank, monopolizing 55% of the budget of compensation with 3.3 billion dinars in 2021 once morest 1.5 billion dinars in 2020, an increase of 120%”, explains the document.
But at this level, it is important to underline that for years, the worrying situation of public finances has sparked a great debate on the question of compensation and the reality of prices and calls have been made on the part, in particular, of the authorities global financial institutions from Bretton Woods to replace price compensation with direct cash transfers to be used by vulnerable groups. On the other side, voices oppose the lifting of compensation for fear of seeing the purchasing power of the poor and middle social classes deteriorate further.
“The subject is divisive and requires a societal debate in which all the stakeholders should take part in order to reach a minimum of consensus absolutely necessary to carry out a fundamental reform in this area, as in so many others. But in the current state of the political situation where consultation between the actors is not required, the country lives in total inertia whose outcome is totally unpredictable. On this subject, it is necessary, in particular, to insist, moreover, on the more serious consequences of the flight of the prices for the consumption of foodstuffs, on the most underprivileged categories, because of the dominating part of the heading food in their budget”, underlines the document.
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