2023-08-21 08:42:27
Activity is notably penalized by sluggish consumption in a context of uncertainty on the labor market and the global economic slowdown which is weighing on demand for Chinese goods and therefore the activity of thousands of factories.
The situation in the real estate sector, with its share of developers on the verge of bankruptcy and unfinished housing, is also a major obstacle to growth.
This sector, along with the construction sector, have long contributed a quarter of China’s GDP.
In another sign of a slowdown, loans to households last month fell to their lowest level since 2009.
In an attempt to stimulate activity, the Central Bank once more cut a key rate on Monday, following a similar measure already last week.
The one-year LPR, which is the benchmark for the most advantageous rates that banks can offer to businesses and households, has been reduced from 3.55% to 3.45%. This rate had already been lowered in June.
The five-year benchmark for mortgages is unchanged at 4.2%.
“Hidden Risks”
Highly followed by the markets, these two rates are at their historic lows.
This decision, anticipated by economists, is supposed to encourage commercial banks to grant more credit and at more advantageous rates.
The measure should indirectly support activity in a context of economic slowdown.
It runs counter to the major economies in the world raising rates to curb inflation.
Analysts polled by Bloomberg, however, expected a larger cut in the LPR and for both rates.
“Confidence is the key to recovery,” said analyst Maggie Wei of US investment bank Goldman Sachs.
“This reduction in the LPR is disappointing” and risks being counterproductive if the markets interpret this as Beijing’s “reluctance” to further stimulus measures, said Ms. Wei.
Chinese stock markets were in any case down at midday.
On Friday, the Central Bank and financial regulators had however mentioned the need to “support” the economy further and reduce “hidden risks and dangers”, official media reported on Sunday without specifying their nature.
Real estate in crisis
The long-awaited post-Covid recovery in China following the lifting of health restrictions at the end of 2022 has run out of steam in recent months, while the real estate sector is struggling.
The setbacks of developer Country Garden, long reputed to be financially sound and now ultra-indebted, raises fears of a bankruptcy with immeasurable consequences for the financial system in China, two years following the descent into hell of its competitor Evergrande.
To reinvigorate the economy, the central bank had already reduced the rate for its medium-term loans to financial institutions (MLF) last Tuesday.
The bad series of indicators, which have followed one another in recent weeks in China, are increasing the pressure for a vast recovery plan, which the authorities are reluctant to do in order not to increase the debt.
The government, on the other hand, is multiplying benevolent announcements once morest the private sector, which was particularly hard hit during the health crisis, but also in favor of consumption, in particular with tax deductions.
But these measures are struggling to take effect so far, when one in five young people is unemployed.
– “Difficulties” but…
After a record level in June according to official data (21.3%), China is now suspending the monthly publication of detailed employment figures for 16-24 year olds.
The economic situation threatens the growth target set at around 5% for this year by the government.
This rate would be one of the lowest in decades for the Asian giant outside the Covid period.
China on Wednesday acknowledged economic “difficulties” but castigated the pessimism of those in the West who doubt the Asian giant’s ability to support global growth.
“The facts will prove them wrong,” said Wang Wenbin, a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
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