a “satisfactory quantity” production, but the weather has an effect on the quality

2023-08-16 15:47:00

While the wheat harvest in France is announced satisfactory in quantity “, professionals apprehend a “ saturation » storage capacities. And for good reason, the silos are filling up faster than they are emptying, due to declining exports.

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French production of soft wheat, the bread cereal, should reach 35.6 million tonnes. It turns out to be up by 3.5% compared to the average of the last five years, according to forecasts by the statistical service of the Ministry of Agriculture. The record dates back to 2015, with more than 40 million tonnes.

Lower quality in some areas

The quality of the harvest is essentially ” to ” levels expected by the markets “, reported last week the National Establishment of Agricultural and Seafood Products (FranceAgriMer) and the Technical Institutes for Field Crops (cereals and oilseeds), Arvalis and Terres Inovia.

Barley harvests (estimated at 9.4 million tonnes for winter barley and 2.7 million for spring) meet brewing quality requirements (making beer), for the most part, according to the three organizations. Part of the soft wheat harvest, however, was upset by the summer rains “, they noted. The quality of the harvests in the coastal regions of the Channel must therefore be subject, according to them, to ” special attention ».

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The risk is indeed to have grains that are too moist, not loaded enough in protein to make bread. The wheat is then downgraded to feed animals rather than humans.

Cattle feed, a market soon to be saturated?

As of August 7, the harvest was 89% complete across France (compared to 94% on average from 2018 to 2022), but only 66% in Normandy (compared to 85% on this average). In Brittany, half of the wheat (51%) was harvested, compared to 84% usually at the same time.

Cereal export manager for Sénalia, the first agro-logistician in the port of Rouen, Alain Charvillat observes that ” a campaign with two harvests one before the rains and the other only really started last week.

First grain port in Western Europe, Rouen sees 50% of French exports and a fifth of European exports, with an average of five million tonnes per year. The grains harvested following the rains will be between 50% and 70% in fodder quality “, that is to say good for animal feed, with ” very altered yields “says Alain Charvillat. This livestock feed market is in danger of being saturated, as the whole of northern Europe has experienced rainfall potentially affecting grain quality.

Preferred Russian Wheat

Overall, the start of the 2023-2024 export campaign is marked by a decline in European shipments, particularly in the face of Russian wheat, which is cheaper and ” very present » including in the Maghreb where France is usually the main supplier, observes Damien Vercambre of Inter-Courtage.

« When can we sell? asks the latter, then ” that we know full well that our wheat is not competitive compared to Russian wheat. In the meantime, the new harvests are added to the previous ones.

From farmers to port logisticians and cooperatives, “ no structure has the means to store all the collections », Estimates Pierre Delamare, representative of the Noriap cooperative, which brings together farmers from Le Havre to Dunkirk. So much so that, according to Alain Charvilliat, ” logistical saturation at the end of August, beginning of September ” East ” possible given the modest export forecasts.

The grain market avoids overheating

Cereal prices, although suspended by tensions in the Black Sea, remain weighed down by good harvest forecasts in the northern hemisphere associated with weak demand from China. On the European market, the prices of soft wheat, the cereal for bread, were around 230 euros per tonne in the short term on Wednesday around 2:30 p.m. GMT, a level comparable to the days preceding the break-up of the cereal agreement, a month ago. .

Moscow ended this agreement which allowed Ukrainian cereals, since the summer of 2022, to leave the ports of the south of the country despite the blockade put in place by Russia. Since the expiry of the agreement, the number of attacks in the Black Sea has increased on both sides and the Russian army has repeatedly struck Odessa, but also the river ports of Izmail and Reni. An important source of income for kyiv, cereals take other routes out of the country: rivers, rail and road, but the volumes transported in this way are smaller.

(With AFP)