2023-08-14 18:43:00
After the surprise result in the primary elections, the Central Bank raised the official exchange rate to $365.50, validating a devaluation of the 22%. Although the monetary policy rate increased up to the 118% to contain inflation, specialists say that the measures will have an impact on prices.
The blue dollar, for its part, reached a new record and traded at $690. Thus, the exchange rate gap remains stable around the 100%.
Regarding financial dollars, the MEP advanced to the $619 and the CCL increased to $655.
What do the specialists say?
In relation to the impact that the devaluation will have, the economist Pablo Tigani assured: “I think there will be an important remarking of prices in supermarkets, in food and to a lesser extent, in clothing”.
Regarding food, it is worth mentioning that so far this month, the food and beverage index of the consultancy LCG averaged 3,3% and in the last four weeks (last two of July and first two of August) the accumulated increase reaches 8,7%.
However, “although cost prices would generate inflation, the level of decoupling that exists between the level of income and the cost of the products will set a certain limit to the increase”, said the specialist.
“There will be a drop in consumption of clothing and footwear, household appliances and automobiles,” he said.
On the other hand, “the devaluation will generate an enormous sectoral dispersion between price correction rate levels”said.
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Likewise, despite the strong rise in the blue dollar, he assured that without any doubt, the greatest impact will be generated by the rise in the official since most international import and export transactions are carried out through the official exchange market.
Along the same lines, from GMA Capital, the economist Nery Persichini Indian: “We expect a direct impact on the entire CPI in the second half of August. Unlike widenings of the exchange rate gap, which affected only imported goods, the discrete jump in 22% in the official price it will hit basic products, such as food and drinks ”.
“At the same time, the 15% increase in parallel prices will also have an effect on items linked to foreign trade such as clothing and household equipment,” he said.
Camilo Tiscornia of C&T Asesores Económicos said that lhe devaluation of the official exchange rate affects everything but mainly to the electronic products, cars, medicines and food.
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For his part, Aldo AbramExecutive Director of the Fundación Libertad y Progreso indicated: “With the issue of the rise in exchange rates, what the Central Bank is looking for is clearly to discourage the demand for official dollars, which it will have its cost in the gondolas. All the goods and services that can be exported or imported will go up these days, because they are bought with official dollars.”
“Where there is going to be a higher price increase, it is still in those that were recently hit with the country tax. So there’s going to be a price hike in the next few weeks,” she said.
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