2023-08-14 08:06:43
The crisis is certainly not over yet, according to energy expert Hans van Cleef of the Public Affairs consultancy. This week, gas prices in the Netherlands rose sharply, because a strike was threatening in Australia. “And the liquefied gas (LNG) that we use does not come from Australia at all,” emphasizes Van Cleef. “That indicates how nervous the market is. If things go wrong, prices can rise sharply.”
How prices will develop in the coming winter depends on various factors. For example, if it gets very cold in Asia, Asian countries will also need a lot of LNG. “Then competition on the energy market will increase and it will also become more expensive for us,” explains Van Cleef. “There is not enough for everyone. We have to pay the top price if we want to get it here.”
We are therefore far from being back to the situation as it was before 2022, says Jilles van den Beukel, energy expert at The Hague Center for Strategic Studies (HCSS). “The energy market is now tight, which is reflected in the prices. But we are no longer in the crisis situation of last year.”
According to Van den Beukel, the energy market is expected to remain this way for a few more years. “A lot more capacity will come onto the market around 2026, because the LNG plants that are currently being built will then be finished. Then the market will also cool down a bit.”
But we do not yet know exactly what the price of energy will do in the future. “I’m not going to predict anything,” says Van den Beukel. “But the chance is small that prices will be as high as in 2022. On the other hand, we will probably not go back to energy prices before the crisis in the coming years.”
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