Analyzing the Canadiens Potential Pick at 2023 NHL Draft: Matvei Michkov or Ryan Leonard?

2023-06-11 07:00:00

BUFFALO, NY – The Canadiens might still choose Matvei Michkov with the fifth pick in the 2023 NHL Draft. It’s possible, but it doesn’t seem very likely.

Four days spent looking for information at the Combine of the NHL gave us this impression, even if no one at the Canadiens wanted to say so, for obvious reasons. A few people suggested that not only would Michkov not be picked by the Habs, but that he might even slip outside the top-10.

Canadian general manager Kent Hughes was asked regarding Michkov a few times Thursday morning, and none of his answers suggested the Russian forward was in his sights. His first response was to say the Canadiens first need to figure out who he is as a player, which is essentially what Hughes said on draft draw night over a month ago. He said no one from the organization had spoken to Michkov, although the CH intended to do so. He added that his staff should study his contractual situation and the impact of the war in Ukraine on his status.

These are all things the Canadiens might have done in the last month if Michkov really interested them. And frankly, the truth is that the Canadian probably did his research to the point where we are, and Hughes still chose to answer that way regardless. He then added this.

“Michkov has a three-year contract at the moment, and it’s not like it’s not allowed for him to re-sign in Russia either,” he said. We see that from time to time. I think there are other players who have been drafted who have re-signed contract extensions. It is unknown.

“I wouldn’t say it scares us, but these are all factors that we will weigh before making a decision. »

So, yes, it is possible that the Canadian will end up choosing Michkov. But if he doesn’t, it’s worth considering who the organization might turn to at No. 5. Again, following several days of gleaning information, we have the impression that the decision will include American Development Program (USNTDP) winger Ryan Leonard as well as Austrian right-hander David Reinbacher among others.

They are two completely different players who play in different positions, but they have two things in common. First of all, they each possess a characteristic that is difficult to acquire outside of draft frames; teams generally do not trade players who have these qualities. Second, they’re both players who might perform well in the playoffs because they have the traits, unique attributes, and attitude to stand out in the playoffs.

We’re not saying the Canadiens’ scope is limited to these two players – their amateur scout meetings, where their roster will be finalized, won’t take place until later this week. – but whatever list the Canadian puts together, we strongly believe that these two players will be at or near the top of the list.

(Arpon Basu/The Athletic)

Ryan Leonard, the train that does not stop

The qualities NHL teams look for in prospects are constantly changing, depending on the ups and downs of what is considered a recipe for playoff success. There’s a reason the NHL is described as a “league of copycats” because all teams aim for the ultimate honor at the end of the season, and when a formula for that honor emerges , the teams naturally follow it.

Rightly or wrongly, that’s how teams think, and priorities are constantly changing, as Canadian general manager Kent Hughes knows very well.

“The only thing to be wary of is putting too much emphasis on a particular playoff series,” Hughes said Thursday during his press briefing on the sidelines of the NHL Prospects Combine.

“When Pittsburgh was winning, everyone said you had to be fast. When Tampa won, there it was necessary to be skilful. And now you have two teams playing physical hockey and you have to be physical. One thing is certain, you have to be competitive. But does that change what we do in the draft? No. All the qualities we look for in a player are not going to change from one year to the next. »

One thing is certain.

There’s not much that’s certain regarding the recruiting process for prospects, but elite-level competition is something all teams are looking for. In the same way as it is very difficult to acquire great power forwards unless they are drafted, unearthing players whose level of competition is exceptionally high and who also have a high level of skill is a characteristic that teams have been looking for a long time, but that can be difficult to identify and project into the future. It’s much easier to watch Connor Bedard shoot a puck and recognize that he has a special skill. Or Connor McDavid’s skating. But that set of competitiveness and skill can be elusive and less easy to project into the lower levels of hockey.

The NHL, especially once in the playoffs, is so tough and physical that it’s hard to know how an 18-year-old will react in that environment.

Except that once in a while, he passes a player who facilitates this kind of projection.

Ryan Leonard seems to be that player.

Leonard is not particularly tall, he who at the Combine was measured a bit under 6 feet, with a weight of 190 pounds. He’s a good skater, but that doesn’t necessarily distinguish him from the others. His shooting is excellent, and USNTDP starting goaltender Trey Augustine said he had one of the best shots on a really good team.

But it’s Leonard’s competitiveness that’s out of the ordinary.

This characteristic – elite-level competitiveness – is something the Canadian sees as diminishing as the game at the lower levels becomes less physical. This kind of player can still emerge from this environment and shine at the NHL level, but it becomes more difficult to identify them in the amateur ranks. When Hughes compares Leonard to Matthew and Brady Tkachuk, you immediately understand how he feels regarding Leonard’s physicality and competitiveness.

Oliver Moore, Leonard’s USNTDP teammate but his most frequent opponent in training, knows him well. They faced each other every day as if it were a championship final.

“He rubbed off on me a lot, and I think a lot of guys on our team can attest to the kind of person he is off the ice and the approach he had in practice and that he brought into games,” Moore said. He did everything for our team. It is not for nothing that he is a leader. »

It is not a coincidence. For one thing, Leonard doesn’t have an off button. But he also tries to make his team better by using the trainings as he does.

“I try to be a leader,” Leonard explained. I try to help the young people around me to improve. I feel like a guy who pushes in training, and in games too. I try to set the tone as much as possible. I try to be a tough guy to face in training, so in games everything comes naturally for everyone. »

Leonard is a goalscorer, as evidenced by his 51 goals in 57 games for the USNTDP this season, with the only caveat being that his production rate has dropped drastically in his USHL games, with 11 goals and 20 points in 17 matches. Linemates Will Smith and Gabriel Perreault finished first two in the USHL in points per game, while Leonard finished 12th overall.

Leonard scored eight goals and had 17 points in seven games at the World Under-18 Championship, finishing third in the tournament and on his own line with Smith and Perreault. But in some ways, it’s Leonard’s physical game and ability to create space that serves as the catalyst for this unity.

“With everything he does, says Perreault, for guys like us, it makes our job quite easy. »

In the gold medal game, with the United States shorthanded in the first minute of overtime, Leonard was running out of penalty when Swedish defender Theo Lindstein fired a shot from above of the enclave. Leonard got down on one knee, blocked the shot with his left foot or leg, and immediately went following the puck, getting a great game-ending opportunity.

When he returned to the bench, his leg was in bad shape. He thought he had to sit down a bit to let the pain subside. He returned to the ice the next time around. And he scored the golden goal.

“I told them I was ready to go,” Leonard said. They called my name and then, well, yeah, that was the game. »

Watching the Stanley Cup playoffs, Leonard himself found his game more like that of Sam Bennett than that of his Florida Panthers teammate Matthew Tkachuk.

“He doesn’t like it just dipping his toes in the water,” Leonard said of Bennett. He’s the kind of guy you rely on in a team and also represents a great offensive threat. »

Bennett is known for raising his game in the playoffs. Leonard likes to think he has the same profile.

“I think that’s where I shine,” he said. That’s what makes the game fun. It is in these moments that you distinguish yourself from the rest of the group and that you impose your authority. »

The Canadiens take a keen interest in a player’s ability to handle Montreal’s pressure environment. The team considers this to be of vital importance. Talking to Leonard for a few minutes, it’s clear that wouldn’t be a problem.

On Saturday, he was asked a rather innocuous question that almost all prospects are asked, which is what aspects of their game they need to improve. But Leonard’s response was not trivial.

“I like where I am, honestly,” he replied. Just keep moving in all the right directions. Become bigger, faster, stronger, draw as quickly as possible. Become a good leader. It’s kind of who I am.

“And I don’t think I’ll ever lose my competitiveness, so I don’t think you have to worry regarding that. »

(Arpon Basu/The Athletic)

What if David Reinbacher became another Moritz Seider?

We have to go back to the famous draft of 2003 for a defender not to be chosen among the first five. And in the past 20 years, there have been three occasions when a team used the fifth pick to get what they thought was the first available defenseman.

Noah Hanifin, Olli Juolevi and Jake Sanderson weren’t all lucky picks — the Vancouver Canucks paid dearly for their mistake in picking Juolevi — but the Ottawa Senators aren’t going to regret Sanderson’s selection. a 6’2 mobile defenseman, very mature defensively and who is believed capable of producing points at the National League level, even if it will not be at the pace of Makar, Josi and company.

Unless there is a surprise, it is the Canadian who will be in position in fifth place to draft the first defender, and David Reinbacher has precisely something of Sanderson.

One of the big differences is that the 18-year-old fullback is right-handed, which is a rare commodity among top-tier defenders in the National League. If the Canadian wants to combine business with pleasure, if he wants to add top talent while filling an organizational need, Reinbacher is a candidate of choice.

We were talking regarding Sanderson, but the most frequent comparisons regarding Reinbacher are with Moritz Seider, not only because they are two right-handed backs of similar size who are both capable of giving good shoulders, but also because the lack of comparables to other defensemen who played where they played in their draft year makes projections more difficult.

Seider hadn’t played much with the Mannheim club in the DEL before the Detroit Red Wings picked him sixth overall in 2019. He charmed everyone at the 2019 Combine with his standout personality, but at the In terms of hockey, doubts remained regarding his true offensive potential. Externally, the majority of observers were projecting him as a first-round midfielder, if not a late first-round pick.

A similar doubt exists regarding Reinbacher, not so much because of the same lack of visibility that Seider suffered – he had plenty of it – but because even a year ago he was a fairly unrecognized prospect. Public assessments of him often put him in the same place Seider was expected to go, but NHL teams have learned their lesson. Some teams at the top of the table are so interested in him that it would be very surprising if Reinbacher were chosen later than sixth.

But why these hesitations?

The Austrian defender has been affiliated with Swiss club Kloten for several years. Two years ago, for example, he played 25 games in Kloten’s U20 squad alongside players who were mostly three years older than him. His older brother Tobias was one of them. However, Kloten is also a club whose main team was relegated in 2018 from the National League A to the Swiss second division, which is simply called the Swiss League (SL). No player gets drafted by an NHL team while playing in the SL.

When he joined the team at the age of 16, he was already given a lot of responsibility and he was able to stand out once morest adults. But it was the Swiss League.

This year, however, Kloten has managed to move up to Ligue A at a time when Switzerland’s top circuit has raised its caliber of play. Import players are in high demand, and the migration of several non-Russian players who left the KHL in the past year has expanded the pool of talent available for League A. The fact that the number of imported players per team has increased from four to six this year has raised the competition, and young players have often given way to foreigners. League A has never been recognized as a development league. This situation might have been unfavorable for Reinbacher who, even if he is Austrian, has a Swiss player’s license.

However, the 18-year-old defender has earned a very important role at Kloten from the outset, where he has played around 19 minutes per game throughout the season.

“I would say that at the beginning of the year, it was a little difficult to come back from the World Juniors and to fight for a position in a professional team, entrusted to us Reinbacher. But they told me that I would have a role, but that I had to deserve it. I thought to myself, they’re going to send me back downstairs to play more minutes, but it didn’t happen that way. They believed in me. They gave me a chance. I think I approached it the right way. I got more and more minutes from game to game, I got a bigger role, and I really liked that. »

Humbler and more composed than Leonard, Reinbacher was one of only two defenders under 20 to play more than ten games in League A, and he was by far the most productive. His 22 points for 46 points is the best points-per-game average by any NLA defenseman in his draft year, including Roman Josi.

However, we continue to ask questions regarding his offensive potential.

Reinbacher’s responsible play, his ability to kill plays on defense, provide some toughness, and excel in transition make him a very low-risk pick. If he becomes the equivalent of Brett Pesce, despite his effectiveness, he may not have justified being chosen so early in the draft. But if his offensive qualities continue to take off and he becomes as productive as Seider, there will be no more questions.

“There’s a reason he’s the highest-ranked defenseman in this draft,” Hughes said. He’s tall, he defends very well and he has a very mature defensive game. We often see the opposite, don’t we? I think that’s the last part of the game that comes to a player. It is an efficient puck dispenser. In short, he is a talented prospect. »

Reinbacher believes his attacking skills will easily transfer to North American ice and his game will stay the same.

“I’m calm with the puck. I try to feed the offensive players, I can skate with the puck. I have a good, long stick. I try to play the same way as in Kloten. I think I showed at the World Junior Championships in December that the way I play in Kloten is the way I’m going to play on the smaller rinks.

“I try to do my best every shift to create something up front, but I have work to do. I have to improve how I move down the blue line, make sure my shots get through traffic and those things. I think there are still a lot of improvements to be made there so that I really see where my offensive assets are. But I think there is potential. »

That’s what Canadian scouts will continue to assess by June 28.

In Switzerland, Reinbacher must complete a final year of study at a school specializing in business studies. That’s why his personal preference would be to stay in Europe for another year before making the jump to America. Among other things, he must pursue an internship where he learns on the ground how to recruit in a company. He learns to be a headhunter.

But the tables were turned this week in Buffalo because it was his head that the National League teams were chasing. And there is more than one company interested.

(Photo by David Reinbacher: Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images)

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