2020-09-11 09:28:12
Bild: Donald Trump: Swing States will decide the 2020 US election in 2020 – for or once morest “The Donald”? (© MANDEL NGAN / AFP / picturedesk.com)
The Big Swing States Prediction for the US Election 2020
Trump knows that his re-election chances in the presidential election on November 3rd – although all US election polls & forecasts predict something very different – are fully intact.
Why?
Because of the complex electoral system in the United States, the following applies: whoever gets the majority in a state owns all the votes from there.
This is where the swing states come into play. Neither Trump nor Biden can expect a secure majority in these “swing voting states” – and that is why the presidential election will be decided there!
Swing States 2020: Predictions, Polls and Opportunities
Betting on the US election 2020
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These swing states will decide the US election 2020
In many US states, Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Joe Biden is sure to win.
Of the fifty American states, almost forty are “fixed”: California, for example, is a stronghold of the Democrats, while Texas, for example, usually goes to the Republicans.
However, the swing states are open. This time they are special: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin – and perhaps a little surprisingly Texas.
Swing State 2020 polls on Trump & Biden
Donald TrumpJoe BidenFlorida47,1 %48,3 %Michigan43,0 %50,3 %North Carolina46,8 %48,9 %Ohio46,2 %46,2 %Pennsylvania45,4 %49,5 %Wisconsin44,8 %50,5 %Stand: November 3, 2020. Source: The Politics Special Realclearpolitics in which the poll values are updated in real time.
The five most competitive states are:
● Florida (29 electors) and Ohio (18) are classic swing states. In the past six presidential elections, the Democratic candidate has won 3 times and the Republican candidate has won 3 times.
Swing State forecasts also point to a close race in 2020.
● In the three industrial states of Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16) and Wisconsin (10), Trump won the first Republican victory since the 1980s and with it the decisive electorate.
This time, however, the US election swing state forecasts put the Democrats ahead with Biden.
FLORIDA
Trump 50% (+3)
Biden 47%
.
PENNSYLVANIA
Trump 49% (+2)
Biden 47%
.
OHIO
Trump 49% (+2)
Biden 47%
.
GEORGIA
Trump 49% (+2)
Biden 47%
.
NORTH CAROLINA
Trump 49% (+2)
Biden 47%
.
MICHIGAN
Trump 48%
Biden 48%— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 3, 2020
Swing States Forecast by Political Pundits
According to polls and forecasts, Trump was behind in almost all swing states in both mid-September and mid-October – but he absolutely needs success in these “swing zone regions” to win the US election in 2020.
For Biden, a win in Florida (29 electors) would be a big step toward the presidency. Here, in 2016, Trump narrowly (1.6 percent) prevailed over Clinton.
Pennsylvania, which narrowly won Trump in 2016 but was Democratic before that, is likely to tip the scales this time.
According to a Swing States forecast by FiveThirtyEighta political statistics portal geared specifically to elections, Pennsylvania is the state that is likely to give either Trump or Biden the decisive votes to win the election.
Pennsylvania is so important that according to this model, if Trump wins the state, there is an 84 percent chance of winning the presidency.
For Biden, there is even a 96 percent chance of becoming president if he is victorious in Pennsylvania.
Trump: His two re-election chances
Ohio, Pennsylvania & Florida decide the choice
But not all swing states have the same importance.
Like all other states, these contested swing voter regions also have a different number of electors who decide on victory and defeat → This is how the US election works
The more populous swing states are a bit more important because they have a few more electors – such as Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20) or Ohio (18).
Wettfreunde tip: If you want to have fun and create a swing states forecast yourself, this is for you FiveThirtyEight made an interactive model:
States can be assigned alternately to the candidates and you can see how quickly the tide can turn in the 2020 US election.
Swing State Ohio – the microcosm decides
With a population of around 11.5 million and a mix of urban and rural areas, the state of Ohio is considered a kind of microcosm of the United States – and tips the scales in elections.
Ohio is of enormous statistical importance for the 2020 US election and for a possible Trump re-election: It is said that the candidate who wins the swing state Ohio will move into the White House.
John F. Kennedy was the last American president who, despite his defeat in Ohio, was ultimately able to win the election.
According to some swing state forecasts, Ohio will go to Trump this year. An indication that Trump will become president once more? Or does Biden do it like JFK once did?
OHIO
Trump 50% (+3)
Biden 47%@atlas_intelLV, 10/29-30— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 2, 2020
Swing State Forida – wer lacht im Sunshine State?
Florida is probably the most important Trump swing state in the US election 2020 – here alone 29 electors can be conceded in one fell swoop.
Trump did that in 2016.
In 2020, Florida might even become the sector that decides the US election once more. As was the case in 2000…
As a reminder: The Republican George W. Bush was so narrowly ahead of his opponent Al Gore in the first count of the votes in Florida that the votes were recounted for weeks.
Ultimately, Bush had only 537 (!) votes more but all 29 electors on his side – and thus in the end 271 electoral votes (one vote more than the necessary 270).
FLORIDA
Trump 48% (+1)
Biden 47%
Jorgensen 2%InsiderAdvantage/@fox35orlandoLV, 11/1-2
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 3, 2020
Swing State Pennsylvania – who will get the focal point?
According to many US election 2020 forecasts, the duel between Trump and Biden can also be decided in Pennsylvania.
Trump polls are already turning their attention to this region in the Northeast of the United States.
It should depend on Swing State Pennsylvania whether Trump can repeat his 2016 victory or whether the Democrats can recapture their former bastion with Joe Biden, who was born in Scranton in eastern Pennsylvania.
“Pennsylvania is the focal point of every election. Anyone who wins here has a very good chance of winning. Whoever loses here has a problem,” says strategist Joe Trippi, who has been organizing campaigns for the Democrats for 40 years.
In 2016, Trump won the swing state of Pannsylvania by just 44,000 votes—and ultimately the election. And 2020?
According to some Swing States forecasts for the 2020 US election, Trump is the favorite in Pennsylvania. Another indication of his re-election?
Who wins which swing state!
For example, you can bet on who will win in the largest swing state, Florida, or who will secure Pennsylvania, which is also very important.
Straight to the US election bets
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Swing State Prediction for Trump vs Biden in USA Election 2020
Die Trump re-election chances are still fully intact, although general polls and one or the other swing state forecast have claimed otherwise – mainly due to the unclear conditions in most “swing state” states.
Nationwide surveys, some of which have seen Biden clearly ahead for months, should therefore be treated with caution. “The presidential election is really a race in a few states,” it says.
How important the swing states are for winning the presidential elections was shown in 2016 when Trump swept the swing states in particular, defeating the real favorite Hillary Clinton.
Swing State Presidential Election Prediction & Polls
Bild: These swing states will matter in the 2020 US election (© Statista)
According to current surveys of swing voter states, things will be very tricky for Trump this time. This also predicts one or the other Swing States forecast.
It currently looks as if he will soon have to clear his desk for Joe Biden.
In October, 50 percent of Pennsylvania respondents said they were pro-Biden — just 46 percent pro-Trump. In Michigan, just 43 percent of respondents supported the Republican incumbent, but a whopping 51 percent supported Biden.
In the Swing States forecast for Florida, Trump was also behind Biden at this point in the Swing State polls – 46:50 to be precise.
Trump vs Biden: Polls & Forecast
Trump and the swing states – is he doing what he did once morest Clinton in 2016?
Die current survey values for the “Battleground States” or some Swing States forecasts don’t (yet) have to mean anything – that’s shown in 2016.
In almost all August polls, Trump was just as clearly behind Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton as he is currently behind Joe Biden. The end is known – Trump became US President.
The reason: Trump had won mainly in the swing states.
Trump & Swing States: So war es 2016
Swing StatesElectors for TrumpElectors for ClintonColorado9Florida29Iowa6Michigan16Nevada6New Hampshire4North Carolina15Ohio18Pennsylvania20Virginia13Wisconsin1011433
Example Wisconsin: According to the Politik-Website RealClearPolitics At that time, Clinton even had a lead of more than 5 percentage points over Trump in one or the other swing state forecast.
But when the elections were held in November, Trump had won by a measly 0.7 points in Wisconsin – and in one fell swoop he had all 10 electors.
It was similar in other swing states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan. In August 2016, Clinton even had a 7 and 6 percent lead in the polls there, and in the end both swing voter regions went to Trump.
In addition, he also grabbed the most important and largest swing state – namely Florida.
Out of eleven swing states, only four went to Hillary in 2016 – and only one with a double-digit number of voters.
Bild: Donald Trump won the US election in 2016, mainly with the help of the swing states. (© Statista)
And that is exactly what Trump is building on for the 2020 US election. He wants to win over the most important and largest swing states in order to be able to stay in the White House for another four years.
The chances are intact, as the comparison to 2016 shows…
According to polls in August in Wisconsin, Biden has a lead of regarding 4.4 percent – which is significantly lower than Clinton’s at the time. And that despite the corona pandemic, including the economic collapse and nationwide anti-racism demos.
In other embattled states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida, Biden has a significantly smaller lead over Trump in the August swing state polls than Clinton did in 2016.
Trump re-election: pros & cons
Swing States 2020: Trump bets on the US election
Odds as of November 3rd, 2020, 7:30 a.m. Information provided without guarantee. The quotas are subject to ongoing adjustments and may have changed in the meantime. 18+ | Note terms and conditions!
Current note:
For legal reasons – keyword: new state gambling treaty – betting on political events in Germany is currently a “grey area” for legal reasons.
The betting providers have therefore removed political bets from their program.
Due to the great public interest in the US election 2020, we still show the current betting odds for Donald Trump and Joe Biden from other bookmakers.
The swing state issue will be THE big topic until the November 3rd election date – who is ahead in Florida, is Michigan still available, who owns Ohio?
If you are sure regarding these questions and also want to bet on who will win which swing state in the US elections in 2020 – you can already bet on it!
The betting providers cannot escape the dramatic race for the White House either a variety of different US election bets offer.
With the Trump bets, not only the few swing states can be tipped, but the outcome of all (!) 50 states.
In addition, the political betting providers have a few other special bets in their range – such as who wins more states overall, who wins the “Popular Vote” and how big the electoral advantage of the winner will be.
Straight to the US election bets
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Electoral College – how the US election 2020 works
On November 3rd, the day of the US elections 2020, the presidential candidates Donald Trump and Joe Biden will NOT be directly elected by the US citizens, but they will elect an electoral college (“Electoral College”), which will then be elected 41 days later elects the President and his Vice President.
How many electors a state has depends on its population. → All electors per state at a glance
One thing is certain: in order to win, a candidate must unite at least 270 of the 538 electors.
The peculiarities of the US electoral system mean that all electoral votes from a state go to the candidate with the most electoral votes (principle: “The winner takes it all”).
The votes for the counter-candidate have thus expired.
This can sometimes mean that a candidate who has received the most votes nationwide still does not become president. Namely, when the other candidate wins many populous states and can thus claim ALL the electors of that state.
Or vice versa: Someone becomes president even though he was not elected by the majority of the population. This has happened five times in US history, including in 2016 with Donald Trump himself.
Trump received 2.8 million votes (2.09%) FEWER than his Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton at the time, but he led the electoral college by 306 to 232.
This was because he was able to lay claim to some populous states – including many of the embattled swing states.
And this is where the Swing States 2020 come in for Trump…
Why are the swing states so important and crucial?
The swing states or “battleground states” are particularly hotly contested because neither the Republicans nor the Democrats have a secure majority here.
Unlike in other states such as California or Texas, it is not just Democrats or Republicans who regularly win the race here, but the majorities can switch from one party to the other.
Allocation of the electors to the US states
BundesstaatWahlleuteAlabama9Alaska3Arizona11Arkansas6Colorado9Connecticut7Delaware3Florida29Georgia16Hawaii4Idaho4Illinois20Indiana11Iowa6Kalifornien55Kansas6Kentucky8Louisiana8Maine4Maryland10Massachusetts11Michigan16Minnesota10Mississippi6Missouri10Montana3Nebraska5Nevada6New Hampshire4New Jersey14New Mexico5New York29North Carolina15North Dakota3Ohio18Oklahoma7Oregon7Pennsylvania20Rhode Island4South Carolina9South Dakota3Tennessee11Texas38Utah6Vermont3Virginia13Washington12Washington D.C.3*West Virginia5Wisconsin10Wyoming3538Although Washington DC is not a state, it has three electors by virtue of the 23rd Amendment to the United States Constitution.
The current number of 538 electors is therefore as follows:
► The House of Representatives has had a fixed size of 435 members since 1911. Each state is entitled to at least one representative.
► In addition, each state, regardless of population, has two senators in the Senate, currently 100.
► In addition, the federal capital of Washington, DC, which is not otherwise counted in federal elections, receives three electors.
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