Humanitarian Crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh: Supply Shortages and Health Risks

2023-08-06 20:43:16

The supply situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, with its approximately 120,000 inhabitants, has been tense for months and has recently deteriorated further. Armenian and international media showed footage of empty shelves in supermarkets, drugstores and pharmacies. The head of the pediatric and maternity hospital in the capital, Stepanakert, told a local news outlet that the number of miscarriages had tripled in the past month. The reasons he gave were malnutrition and the psychological stress that pregnant women are exposed to due to the current situation.

Nagorno-Karabakh has also been cut off from aid supplies. According to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), despite persistent efforts, it is currently not possible to provide the civilian population with humanitarian aid. The ICRC announced at the end of July that the organization was able “several weeks ago” to bring medical supplies and essential food to the area.

Lifeline following war 2020

The roots of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict go back a long way. More than 100 years ago, the Soviet leadership closed the Armenian-majority area to Azerbaijan. In 1991, the “Republic of Karabakh”, which lies entirely on Azerbaijani territory, declared itself independent. It is not internationally recognized to this day.

APA/AFP/Karen Minasyan According to the ICRC, the import of relief supplies into Nagorno-Karabakh is currently not possible

War broke out in the 1990s. With the help of the Armenian army, the troops of the self-proclaimed republic managed to occupy areas around Nagorno-Karabakh and establish a land connection with Armenia. Up to 50,000 people were killed at the time and hundreds of thousands were displaced.

War broke out once more in autumn 2020. Azerbaijani forces recaptured large parts of the territories. The corridor, which is several kilometers wide and named following the city of Lachin, has since been the connection between Armenia and the “Republic of Artsakh”, to which Nagorno-Karabakh was renamed in 2017. As part of a ceasefire brokered by Moscow at the end of 2020, Russian peacekeepers were assigned to monitor the corridor.

“Create a precarious situation in a targeted manner”

The blockade of the Lachin corridor started around seven months ago as a protest once morest “environmental destruction” in Nagorno-Karabakh. According to Baku, the activists were members of civil society. Yerevan, on the other hand, saw the Azerbaijani government behind the protests. Even then there were bottlenecks in supplying the civilian population.

APA/AFP/Davit Ghahramanyan Food such as fruit and vegetables are becoming scarce in Nagorno-Karabakh

At the end of April, the Azerbaijani military set up a checkpoint on the Lachin corridor. Since then, freight and passenger traffic has been almost completely interrupted. According to the think tank International Crisis Group, Baku has recently justified the establishment of the army post with text passages from the ceasefire agreement. Accordingly, Azerbaijan is responsible for the safety of people, vehicles and goods along the route. Yerevan and Moscow, which also signed the agreement, reject this interpretation.

Due to Russia’s “inability or unwillingness” to keep the road open, Baku might use the Lachin corridor as a “lever”, says Meißner, who is one of the heads of risk and strategy consultancy LM Prisk, which specializes in the post-Soviet space. “This aims to isolate the territory and create a precarious situation – and thus show Armenia and the authorities of Nagorno-Karabakh that there is no way out and that a solution should be bowed to in the interests of Azerbaijan,” Meissner continued.

difficult negotiations

In addition to Russia, the EU and the USA have now also come into play as mediators. The European Union sent an observation mission to the South Caucasus. Brussels and Washington called on the parties to the conflict to renounce violence and to end the harsh rhetoric.

APA/AFP/Kenzo Tribouillard Alijew, EU Council President Michel, Pashinyan (from left): The EU has intervened as a mediator in the conflict

Azerbaijan’s ruler Ilham Aliyev and Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan recently emphasized their interest in constructive talks in interviews with the TV channel EuroNews. If the Armenian side gives up all attempts to challenge Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, “then maybe we can find a peaceful solution very soon, even by the end of the year,” Aliyev told EuroNews. According to Pashinyan, “calmness, flexibility and skill” are needed to find a peaceful solution.

In the spring, Pashinyan drew attention to himself by announcing that he wanted to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as Azerbaijani territory – a breach of taboo that caused protests in Armenia. In return, he demanded a mechanism to safeguard the rights of the Armenian population.

Mass exodus from Nagorno-Karabakh feared

What this mechanism might look like and who controls it is unclear. Azerbaijan’s authoritarian President Aliyev wants to present his country as a “strong, stable and modern state”. “One alludes to being a democracy, despite massive violations of democracy and the rule of law,” says Meißner.

Graphics: APA/ORF; Quelle: WHAT

It would not fit with this “image” to expel the Armenian population. “However, there is a risk that the population will flee because they do not trust that Azerbaijan is willing to enforce minority rights.”

Baku’s “rocking policy”

The EU has a great interest in good relations with Azerbaijan. Since Moscow’s attack on Ukraine, Brussels has wanted to reduce its dependence on Russian raw materials, with oil and natural gas from the Caucasus country playing an important role.

Last year, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen signed an agreement in Baku to double the supply of Azerbaijani natural gas to the Union. Yerevan has serious doubts that the EU might punish violations of the minority rights of the Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh in this situation, says Meissner.

According to Meißner, the wealth of resources forms the basis for the successful “seesaw policy” that Baku has been pursuing for almost two decades. The raw materials made the small country on the Caspian Sea interesting for international players such as the EU and Turkey.

“Baku has, to a certain extent, rocked itself free from Moscow’s influence,” says Meißner. In addition, in the years leading up to the 2020 war, the Azerbaijani leadership had succeeded in winning Russia over to its side. “Armenia had the sole support of Russia for many years,” says Meißner, “since the 1990s, that was the key security policy pillar for the continued existence of the Republic of Artsakh.”

Russia’s interest in frozen conflicts

Meissner does not believe in an early transformation solution. One factor is Russia’s interest in keeping the conflict going. Moscow’s policy in the post-Soviet space has always been “to create and freeze territorial conflicts in order to retain control in terms of security policy and geopolitics”.

Scenes of such conflicts are, for example, Transnistria (in Moldova), South Ossetia and Abkhazia (both in Georgia). By stationing Russian “peacekeeping troops” in these states, Moscow gains a “domestic and security policy lever” that is activated, for example, when a government turns too much to the West.

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