2023-08-05 16:05:19
During the Russian-Ukrainian war, the question of what would happen if the leader of one of the countries was the victim of an assassination was often discussed. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was recently asked if he was concerned that the Russians had tried to kill him several times and would not stop doing so in the future. The leader of the war-torn country answered the question that he might not afford to think regarding it all the time. “If I were to think regarding it all the time, I would just shut myself down, very much like Putin, who won’t leave his bunker. Of course, my bodyguards take care to prevent this, as this is their job. That’s why I don’t think regarding it.” Zelensky answered CNN. Struggle for survival Although the Ukrainian president is understandably reluctant to think regarding this issue, his supporters cannot afford to ignore it. A few weeks following the start of the war, Mikhail Podolyak, one of Zelensky’s top advisers, disclosed that at least a dozen assassination attempts had already been attempted by Russian assassins, including Chechens and Wagner mercenaries, who tried to break into the heavily guarded government quarter of Kiev. Shortly following the invasion, Zelensky himself reportedly opened his online meeting with US senators by saying that this might be the last time they see him alive. It is clear that the risks are lower now than in the first chaotic weeks of the war, when Russian tanks were headed for the Ukrainian capital and few thought the attacked country would make it this far. However, no one among the president’s supporters thinks that the danger is over. Due to the threat to his life, Zelensky plans his overseas visits in the utmost secrecy. In February of last year, Ukrainian officials stirred up a lot of dust when the news of a planned visit to Brussels leaked three days before his expected arrival. Obviously, this put his journey in danger, and at the same time his life. Similarly, the Bulgarian government feared that his planned trip to the country last month might be canceled following some details regarding it appeared in the press. To what extent would the course of the war change? History can also provide some answers to examine this more closely. Just read the data-backed study written by scientists Benjamin Jones and Benjamin Olken. It is regarding the impact of the 59 assassinations of national leaders between 1875 and 2004 on institutions and wars, in which we can read interesting conclusions. “Assassinations once morest autocrats result in significant changes in the country’s institutions, while assassinations once morest democrats do not.” they stated. Let us now turn to British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli’s statement that assassinations have never changed the history of the world. He said this following US President Abraham Lincoln was assassinated in 1865. Disraeli was right that the event did not really have much effect in reversing the reforms the government had already begun. Continuing in this line of thought, the killers of Julius Caesar did not achieve their goal of saving the doomed Roman Republic from the dictatorship. Instead, they only contributed to the civil wars that accelerated the seemingly inevitable transition to imperialism. Ukraine’s situation is of course special. With its democratic institutions, it is far from the Roman Republic, whose days were almost certainly numbered. Some believe that the invasion inadvertently contributed to the emergence of a new, strong sense of Ukrainian nationhood. And the assassination of the country’s president would not change this, they would continue the fight as they are now. The impact of Zelensky’s death on Western leaders The weakest link is not to be found in Ukraine, but among the country’s allies. Ukrainians are objective towards their president, praising him for his good war leadership and criticizing him for his mistakes. For example, because he was not better prepared for an invasion that he himself considered unlikely. However, his brusque manner towards constructive criticism and his tendency to blame others for mistakes had already developed before the war. The international media, on the other hand, were enchanted by Zelensky’s charismatic appeal and the idea that he would confront Russia like David did with Goliath. His death would likely leave many Western leaders stunned and uncertain. For their part, the occurrence of this event would make them think more regarding peace negotiations with Russia or compromise. At the same time, few people in Ukraine doubt that another, equally worthy leader might rise to the gigantic task, as Zelensky did.
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