2023-08-04 14:12:07
The beginning of the landing? In the second quarter, salaried employment in the private sector continued to grow, but only slightly, gaining only 19,700 jobs. This represents an increase of 0.1%, bringing the workforce of companies in this field of the economy to 21.16 million, according to provisional figures published this Friday by INSEE.
The slowdown, if confirmed, is very clear compared to the first three months of the year, which had recorded an increase of 86,800 (+0.4%), even though there are 1.2 million more jobs than before the health crisis. For the record, the Institute of Statistics anticipated in its last economic report, published in June, 175,000 additional jobs (private or not) in 2023, once morest 445,000 last year.
Rise in the industry
For most economists, this is undoubtedly the signal of a realignment of employment on activity, following two years of euphoria since the end of the Covid. The pace of learning – which explains a third of the jobs created – will also slow down. All in all, “this might be the start of a catch-up in productivity, but it is still much lower than its level before the health crisis”, confirms Yves Jauneau, head of the synthesis and economic situation division. of the INSEE labor market, quoted by AFP.
In detail, employment fell once more in the interim, but less markedly than in the first quarter. Excluding temporary work, it retreated into agriculture and construction, but continued to progress in industry, gaining 6,400 jobs. In the commercial tertiary sector, the main provider of jobs, the slowdown is clear: +25,900 in the second quarter following +85,900 jobs in the first.
Drop 11 billion
Please note that these figures may change, especially since the growth recorded in the second quarter is much higher than expected. We remember that the provisional estimate of employment in the first quarter had been significantly revised a few weeks later when the final figures, more than twice as high in the end, were published. What’s more, at nearly 7 million, declarations of hiring have not weakened from April to June, according to Urssaf statistics.
The publication of INSEE comes in the wake of the sending by Matignon to the social partners of the framework document relating to the negotiation of the next Unédic agreement. As written, it is clearly in line with what the government of Edouard Philippe and that of Elisabeth Borne have established in terms of compensation for the unemployed since 2018.
Unions and employers will have even less room for maneuver as they will have to agree to let go of more than 11 billion of Unédic’s surpluses planned by 2026 to finance France travail, the new public employment service and integration, and learning. The government is maintaining its objective of full employment by 2027, ie an unemployment rate of around 5% of the active population, once morest 7.1% currently.
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