2023-08-03 17:01:58
Migrant rescue operations in the central Mediterranean have no influence on attempted crossings, mainly motivated by conflicts and economic conditions in countries of origin, according to a study published Thursday.
The central Mediterranean connecting the coasts of North Africa to Italy is the most dangerous migratory route in the world. Since 2014, more than 20,000 migrants have drowned or gone missing while trying to reach Europe illegally, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM).
Search and rescue operations at sea are the subject of ‘strong controversy within the European Union’, with some saying that migrants are encouraged to undertake the crossing if they believe they will be rescued in the event of shipwreck, notes a study published in Scientific Reports.
Several factors considered
Social science researchers have therefore wanted to know whether or not rescues, carried out by NGOs or States, constitute a ‘pull factor’ for migrants.
Over a period from 2011 to 2020, they collected data from the EU’s European border agency (Frontex), the Tunisian and Libyan coast guards, IOM and the Dutch NGO United for intercultural action – which compiles the identity of the victims.
They then performed simulations with a model to identify the factors that best predicted passage variations. These factors included the number of rescues, exchange rates, commodity prices, unemployment rate, conflicts, air flows, weather.
Conflicts, disasters, food prices
Conclusion: the number of sea crossings does not vary according to the rescues. “There is no link between saving lives at sea and migration flows,” said Julian Wucherpfenning of the Hertie School in Berlin, co-author of the study, at a press conference.
This causal link has not been established even during the largest rescues, such as the Italian Navy’s ‘Mare Nostrum’ operation – which rescued more than 100,000 people in the Mediterranean between 2013 and 2014 -, added Alejandra Rodriguez Sanchez from the University of Potsdam (Germany), lead author.
On the other hand, conflicts, natural disasters or the prices of basic products in the countries of origin have played on the crossings, note the researchers. The weather on the day of embarkation too. Separately, crossings have declined since 2017, when coast guards began intercepting and returning migrant boats to Libya, with support from the EU, according to the study.
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