2023-07-31 12:59:00
(Original title: The market received heavy volume and the turnover of A-shares returned to one trillion yuan. Focus on low-level sectors during the hot spot rotation)
On Monday, the broader market showed a trend of strong shocks following opening higher. On the 31st, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.46% to close at 3291.04 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.75% to close at 11183.91 points; the ChiNext Index rose 0.77% to close at 2236.67 points; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.55% to close at 4014.63 points. On the 31st, the two cities had a total turnover of 1,105.2 billion yuan, and the turnover returned to more than one trillion yuan following nearly a month. For the short-term market, industry insiders believe that the trading volume of the two cities was significantly enlarged on Monday, but the index growth rate has converged. Investors should pay attention to the sector rotation in short-term operations and pay due attention to the opportunities for supplementary gains in low-level sectors.
Large market volume hits record high
On Monday, Shanghai and Shenzhen A-shares both opened higher in early trading. In terms of the Shanghai stock market, the Shanghai Composite Index opened 0.34% higher in early trading, reaching a peak of 3322.13 points in the intraday session. Affected by some heavyweight stocks rushing higher and falling back, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated and fell back in the followingnoon; as of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.46% to close at 3291.04 points points, the day’s turnover was 511.5 billion yuan. In the Shenzhen market, the Shenzhen Component Index opened 0.53% higher in early trading, reached a peak of 11,289.16 points in the session, and closed at 11,183.91 points, an increase of 0.75%, with a turnover of 593.7 billion yuan on the day. The reporter noticed that on the 31st, the two cities had a total turnover of 1,105.2 billion yuan, returning to the trillion yuan level following nearly a month.
In terms of sectors, the hotel and catering, shipbuilding, Internet, tourism, and construction sectors led the gains; the pharmaceutical, healthcare, telecommunications operations, coal, and oil sectors were weaker. The hotel and catering sector rose 4% on the 31st. In terms of individual stocks, Xi’an Catering and Jinling Hotel rose by the limit, Quanjude rose 6.67%, and SSAW rose 4.69%. The shipbuilding sector rose 3.10%. In terms of individual stocks, China Heavy Industry rose 5.02%, Jianglong Shipbuilding rose 4.44%, and China Shipbuilding rose 3.02%. The Internet sector rose 2.87% on the 31st. Among individual stocks, Xinghui Entertainment rose 11.21%, Guolian shares rose 10%, Tom Cat rose 6.98%, and Gigabit rose 6.23%. The pharmaceutical sector fell by 2.01% on the 31st. The top gainers in the sector were Bid Pharmaceutical, Saito Bio, Nanjing Cenbest, Sailun Bio fell by 11.53%, Jiudian Pharmaceutical fell by 10.12%, and Nhua Pharmaceutical fell by 9.99%.
For the decline in the pharmaceutical sector, industry insiders believe that it was mainly affected by bad news. Taking Sailun Biotech as an example, the stock fell by more than 10% on the 31st. According to the company’s latest announcement, Fan Zhihe, one of the actual controllers, chairman, and legal representative of Sailun Biology, was detained and investigated for alleged job crimes. In addition, on the news side, according to the website of the National Commission for Discipline Inspection of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, on July 28, a video conference on mobilization and deployment of discipline inspection and supervision agencies to cooperate with the centralized rectification of corruption in the pharmaceutical field was held in Beijing. It is an inevitable requirement to promote the implementation of the Healthy China strategy, purify the ecology of the pharmaceutical industry, and safeguard the vital interests of the masses. Previously, according to a report on the official website of the National Health and Medical Commission on July 21, the National Health and Medical Commission and relevant departments jointly held a video conference to deploy a one-year centralized rectification of corruption in the national pharmaceutical field.
Heavyweight shares have been differentiated
Judging from the performance of heavyweight stocks, the brokerage sector opened higher on the 31st and then fell back, rising 0.48% on the day. In terms of individual stocks, Southwest Securities, Pacific Ocean, daily limit, Huachuang Yunxin rose 8.78%, Tianfeng Securities rose 5.31%, and Cinda Securities rose 5.14%. The reporter noticed that on the 31st, the leading stock of the brokerage firm Pacific Ocean opened with a daily limit of “one word”, and the buy orders on the daily limit board exceeded 3 billion yuan. As of the close, the buy orders on the daily limit board of the stock were still close to 400 million shares. Stimulated by the daily limit of leading stocks, Tianfeng Securities and Huachuang Yunxin once had a daily limit, but near the end of the day, selling increased significantly, and some stocks’ daily limit plates were opened.
The insurance sector rose 0.31% on the 31st, and the overall trend was weaker than that of the broader market. In terms of individual stocks, Ping An of China rose 1.29%, and Tianmao Group rose 1.18%. The banking sector rose by 0.39% on the 31st. Among individual stocks, Zijin Bank once had a daily limit, and closed up 9.66%. The brewing sector fell 0.30% on the 31st, mainly due to the decline in Kweichow Moutai, but there were still 10 brewing stocks that rose by more than 2%. Among them, Shuijingfang rose by 9.51%, Jiugui Liquor rose by 3.75%, and Jinhui Liquor rose by 3.41%.
The reporter noticed that Shuijingfang disclosed its 2023 semi-annual report on the evening of July 28. In the first half of this year, the company achieved revenue of 1.527 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.38%; net profit was 203 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.15%. Among them, in the second quarter, the company achieved revenue of 673 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%; net profit was 43 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 509%. The company said that in the first quarter of 2023, due to the lower-than-expected sales during the Spring Festival, the company’s main task is to reduce social inventory and stabilize the value chain, so it decided to reduce shipments, which led to a significant year-on-year decline in first-quarter performance; Since then, dealer inventory has returned to a healthy level, and store inventory has also decreased significantly, returning to normal levels. In the second half of the year, the company expects to resume double-digit growth in operating income starting from the third quarter.
Everbright Securities believes that following entering the middle and late August, all wine companies will enter the fundamental market-driven period of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, and some unreleased demand for banquets will still be met in this time window. Driven by the demand policy, it is expected to contribute marginal increments, and there will be a time window suitable for long positions in the liquor sector. Zheshang Securities said that liquor, as a sector with strong economic correlation, is optimistic regarding the allocation opportunities of the liquor sector under the pro-cyclical rebound.
Pay attention to the rhythm of the plate rotation
For the short-term market, industry institutions believe that the trading volume of the two cities was significantly enlarged on Monday, but the index growth rate has converged. Investors should pay attention to the sector rotation in short-term operations and pay due attention to the opportunities for supplementary gains in low-level sectors.
CITIC Construction Investment believes that consumption scenarios such as annual meetings, business banquets, and dinners with old friends this year will continue to drive the recovery of the catering banquet market, and the replenishment of banquets may exceed expectations. The hot sales of liquor, beer, dairy products, and casual snacks have led to a recovery in channel confidence, and the industry chain will return to the booming stage. We continue to be strongly optimistic regarding investment opportunities in liquor, beer, and catering chains.
China Merchants Securities said that at present, the PB valuation of the banking sector and the proportion of institutional holdings are at historically low levels, and the dividend rate is relatively high, making the margin of safety relatively high. Since the beginning of 2023, the stock price performance of banks has diverged greatly. The stock price performance of China Merchants Bank, Bank of Ningbo, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang High-quality Banks has been relatively sluggish, and their valuations have been at low levels in recent years.
Zheshang Securities believes that in this round of market, the mainline leaders have risen in an orderly manner since June. In late July, with the steady growth and continuous force, the risk appetite has heated up. Next, the technology sector will also launch an offensive. In the future market, you can pay attention to sectors such as computing power, data, and large-scale models; with the steady growth and global risk appetite, the A-share procyclical sector is ushering in restoration; focus on national defense equipment, humanoid robots, autonomous driving and other themed opportunities.
CITIC Securities said that in the short term, the domestic consumer market is still in the recovery channel. Looking forward to the second half of the year, consumption itself has a certain endogenous recovery momentum. At the same time, the potential pull from the policy side will also enter expectations. It is recommended to actively allocate the consumption sector.
Reporter Tang Xiaofei
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