2023-07-24 11:45:24
In the sluggish state of the real estate situation, the meetings on real estate, especially the high-level meetings, have attracted the attention of the market. Previously, the market expected positive policies to further boost the property market. Now, a new round of policies may be coming.
On July 24, the Politburo meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China pointed out that in terms of real estate, it is necessary to effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas, adapt to the new situation of major changes in the relationship between supply and demand in my country’s real estate market, adjust and optimize real estate policies in a timely manner, and make good use of the policy toolbox for city-specific policies to better meet residents’ rigid and improved housing needs and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
The meeting also pointed out that it is necessary to increase the construction and supply of affordable housing, actively promote the transformation of urban villages and the construction of “common emergency dual-use” public infrastructure, and revitalize and transform various types of idle real estate.
In addition, the meeting proposed to effectively prevent and resolve local debt risks, and formulate and implement a package of debt reduction plans. It is necessary to strengthen financial supervision and steadily promote the reform of high-risk small and medium-sized financial institutions to eliminate risks.
Compared with previous statements regarding the real estate industry, this policy bureau meeting did not mention housing for housing and not speculation, but focused on timely adjustment and optimization of real estate policies, which is more concerned by the market.
Zhang Bo, director of the branch of 58 Anju Guest House Industry Research Institute, told the Jiemian News reporter that the direction of optimizing real estate policies has been highlighted from the Central Political Bureau meeting. Combined with the background of the property market downturn since the second quarter of this year, it is expected that in the second half of the year, moderately relaxed market control policies will be introduced one following another. The probability of the release of policies related to the relaxation of purchase restrictions in first- and second-tier hot cities is also increasing. At the same time, the housing loan policy is expected to point to improving demand.
Zhang Bo also said that this meeting maintained the emphasis on real estate financial risks. It not only focused on the financial risks involved in real estate development companies, but also further emphasized the related local debt risks. It is expected that the follow-up will emphasize the introduction of implementation plans. For the real estate industry, there are looseness and tightness. The looseness is reflected in the financing level of real estate companies, and the tightness reflects the level of land acquisition by local platforms. Through financial stability, the healthy development of the real estate market can be better guaranteed.
Song Hongwei, chief researcher of the Tongce Research Institute, told Jiemian News reporters that there are two major points of interest in the Politburo meeting: first, the change in the regulatory model. At present, real estate regulation has transformed from an incremental market regulation model to a stock market regulation approach. Second, risk prevention is the core task of the real estate market in the second half of this year, that is to say, risk is the first issue, and “prevention” is still a strategic strategy. Therefore, the possibility of flooding is not high.
Song Hongwei believes that several core issues in the current real estate market are mainly reflected in the stock market. First, the core problem in the real estate market is still the stock risk problem, which includes the existing debt problems of real estate companies and issues such as guaranteed delivery of buildings and guaranteed delivery. Second, under the situation that the total housing stock has been saturated, how to revitalize the stock assets should be considered in the future.
In view of the current market risks, Song Hongwei said that there are five expected policy adjustments in the second half of the year. First, the financing policy of real estate companies will be moderately relaxed in the second half of the year. Beware of liquidity problems leading to defaults of some real estate companies that are not in danger, and the occurrence of secondary defaults following the extension of the risky real estate companies. It is also necessary to avoid large-scale transmission of debt risks.
Second, in cities with large inventories, the impulse of local governments to sell land should be controlled, and the local urban investment backing will be strictly restricted.
Third, demand-side policies will encourage rigid-need and improvement groups to enter the market. Therefore, the mortgage rate and eligibility for home purchases will be rationally optimized, and some cities with greater downward pressure will adjust the down payment ratio.
Fourth, the core cities are facing two types of “tightening” policies, and the problem of excessive popularity of “upside down” Internet celebrities will come out of policy control. The capital supervision of core cities will be further tightened to prevent developers from diverting cash from core cities to low-level cities.
Fifth, urban renewal and the leasing market will become a new engine driving the real estate economy and will become an important contributor to the added value of GDP.
Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the Middle Finger Research Institute, said that this meeting emphasized the need to effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas, and preventing and resolving real estate-related risks is still the top priority. At the same time, it emphasized timely adjustment and optimization of real estate policies.
First, the draft of this meeting did not mention “housing and housing, not speculation”, and the overall tone is more positive. The current real estate market is under great pressure to adjust. Prices of new and second-hand housing in many places are on a downward path, and investment demand has decreased significantly. Under the current market background, better supporting rigid demand and improving demand is still the policy direction.
Second, the meeting clarified that the current supply and demand relationship in my country’s real estate market has undergone major changes. In 2022, my country’s total population will decline for the first time, the urbanization process will slow down, the per capita housing area will increase significantly, and the average household will be close to 1.1 houses. Residents’ basic housing needs have been met.
Third, in the new stage of development, this meeting emphasized “adjusting and optimizing real estate policies in a timely manner, making good use of the policy toolbox for city-specific policies.” The optimization of real estate policies will still be promoted in the way of city-specific policies, and the overall efforts are expected to increase.
Chen Wenjing believes that in the past year or so, the restrictive real estate policies in ordinary second-tier and third-tier and fourth-tier cities have been basically released. At present, the policy space of core first- and second-tier cities is still relatively large. In the short term, real estate policies in these cities are expected to be further optimized. Optimizing housing credit policies, relaxing suburban purchase restrictions, and reducing transaction taxes are still policy directions.
Fourth, increase the construction and supply of indemnificatory housing, actively promote the transformation of urban villages and the construction of public infrastructure for both emergency and emergency use, and revitalize and transform various types of idle properties. The transformation of urban villages and the revitalization of idle assets will be important measures and methods to increase the construction and supply of affordable housing.
Recently, the “Guiding Opinions on Actively and Steadily Promoting the Transformation of Urban Villages in Megacities” has been reviewed and approved, and more details are expected to be followed up and implemented to better improve people’s livelihood, expand domestic demand, and promote high-quality urban development.
Before the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development also issued the “Notice on Promoting Urban Renewal Work in a Solid and Orderly Way” last week, which put forward requirements for urban renewal such as urban physical examination first, planning overall planning, urban design guidance, sustainable implementation, and simultaneous implementation of “retention, modification and demolition”.
This document is the top-level document on urban renewal proposed by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development two years following the notice of “Urban Renewal to Prevent Large-scale Demolition and Construction”.
From July 1 to 20 this year, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 50 key cities across the country was 8.16 million square meters, a decrease of 33% from June 1 to 20, and a decrease of 37% from July 1 to 20, 2022. The report believes that the data in July is at a rare low level, and there is a risk of further decline and cooling in the future.
At present, the overall property market is still under pressure. After the policy bureau meeting expressed its position on the real estate industry, with the introduction of subsequent effective policies, it may continue to boost market confidence.
(Article source: Jiemian News)
Article source: Interface News
Original title: The Politburo meeting adjusts and optimizes the real estate policy at an appropriate time. What benefits will the real estate market usher in?
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