2023-07-24 06:52:00
U.S. crude oil trading strategy: multiple positive support from the fundamentals, oil prices are expected to overcome the key position of the 200-day moving average
On Monday (July 24) during the Asia-Europe session, U.S. crude oil fluctuated within a narrow range and is currently trading around $76.71 per ounce. The supply is expected to tighten following OPEC+ cut production. After Russia withdrew from the grain export agreement mediated by the United Nations last week, the war in Ukraine has also escalated, further increasing the expectation of tightening supply. In addition, the market is also expecting that major Asian countries will implement targeted stimulus measures to support the weak economy, which may boost oil demand.
In addition, data released by Baker Hughes Oil Services Company on the 21st showed that as of July 21, the number of oil rigs drilled in the United States decreased by 7 to 530, the lowest level since April 2022, and the largest decrease in a week since early June. This means that U.S. production will continue to decline, which is also biased towards bullish oil prices, which are expected to stand above the 200-day moving average of 76.70.
In the short term, fundamentals are expected to support oil prices to continue to rise. However, before the Fed’s interest rate decision this week, there may be some wait-and-see sentiment in the market. In addition, the U.S. dollar index continued to rebound last week, which made the bulls still have scruples.
Daily line level: shocks rise; MACD golden cross runs, KDJ re-forms golden cross, short-term moving average is close to the long-term arrangement, short-term long-term opportunities have increased, pay attention to the resistance near last week’s high of 77.31, if it can break through this resistance, it is expected to open a new upward channel, the conservative target is expected to look at the 80 integer mark, and the aggressive target can even be seen near the April 12 high of 83.51.
In the short term, there are still some resistances around the April 26 high of 77.90 and the April 24 high of 79.15.
The lower 10-day moving average support is currently around 75.75, and the July 20 low is around 74.50. Since oil prices have not yet effectively broken through the key position of the 200-day moving average of 76.70, if oil prices fall back below 74.50, it will add short-term bearish signals. For further support, refer to the position near the 100-day moving average of 73.51, and the support of the 55-day moving average is currently around 71.43.
Resistance: 77.31; 77.90; 79.15; 80.00; 81.46;
Support: 75.75; 74.50; 73.51; 71.94; 71.18;
Suggestions for short-term operation: Conservatives wait and see; radicals do more cautiously on dips.
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