2023-07-23 14:25:42
The former Minister of National Transportation and spokesperson for Sergio Massa’s campaign, Alexis Guerra, considered that renegotiating with the IMF “will give the Government room to take relief measures.”
In dialogue with the journalist Ezequiel Alippe for Vía País, he said that the Government “is not going to be so demanding with the tax collection goals.”
“All this will allow him to inject more money into the family economy, through the Universal Child Allowance (AUH), through social plans, retirements, etc. With increase and with bonuses. And this keeps national production alive. And let’s understand that the internal economy represents 75% of GDP, ”he said.
He also clarified: “Thinking of a Sergio Massa government as a Kirchnerist one is not knowing it.”
the full interview
What will be the priorities of the campaign in the final stretch towards PASO?
AG: Fundamentally it will continue to show and making known the order that was imposed in the Argentine economy from the appearance of Sergio Massa in the Ministry of Economy. How he articulated and requested the merger of strategic areas of the Cabinet (such as Agribusiness and Commerce), as well as the articulation with AFIP, DGI and Customs, to have an order as a whole, with the Ministry of Energy also inside. This allows us as a floor, to begin with, to explain what was done, what we prevented from happening, and also to make it clear where we came from. It is not that we always want to blame the previous government, but The biggest problem that Argentina has today is the conditions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of a debt that was obtained during the government of Mauricio Macri. Even, by the statute of the IMF, what the organization is allowed to lend according to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of each country, in the case of Argentina the loan far exceeded the maximum figure. This has repercussions today, conditioning the economic activities of our country. In addition, why this loan was requested during Macri’s presidency, it is important for us to continue explaining it. We did not see the growth results that were expected and to start paying the first disbursements at that time there was a very strong adjustment in the economy. They were the first major jumps in foreign currency, 26,000 SMEs closed, and more than 200,000 genuine jobs were lost. That is why we explain how the national industry is recovering today, where there is a growth of 1.7% year-on-year. Registered employment growth has already accumulated 32 months of consecutive rise. The automotive industry had the best semester (the first of 2023) since 2014. Until May, the mining and energy industries grew 7.8% year-on-year. How Vaca Muerta has record gas production. How lithium exports grow, having a year-on-year growth of 17%. How receptive tourism has grown that the discussion regarding Aerolíneas Argentinas also filters there. Our campaign at this stage is linked to showing what was done and although today the results seem minor, they begin to be seen with these numbers, with a bit of a drop in inflation, with government measures injecting wages with greater purchasing power. The results are timid, but they are increasing. The Argentina that we are forging is the Argentina of industrialization. We are going to a model country that manufactures its raw material. Because the added value of the raw material is jobs. We understand that, in contrast, there is a proposal that we might see during the macrismo and in the proposals of (Javier) Milei, which have to do with primarized Argentina.
Is that the biggest point of differentiation with the opposition?
AG: In economics, yes. But then we have social aspects. A speech by Together for Change (JPC) that has to do with a heavy hand, with the removal of social plans. And we already saw the results four years ago. And what they actually did was multiply the number of social plans, because there were more and more people outside the labor market. And not to mention Milei’s proposals, which go to the extreme of dollarization, which have no technical support to be able to raise it. And with measures bordering on the delusionalthe organ trade, the sale of children, the privatization of the streets. Even Patricia Bullrich talking regarding lifting the stocks immediately, and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta saying that she is delirious. We want to demonstrate, through Massa, that this path is not the painful one proposed by Bullrrich or the illusory one proposed by Milei.
Without definitions with the IMF and with a rate of inflation still high, what margin do you think there is to improve the social spirit and generate expectations in the people?
AG: The fact of renegotiating with the IMF will give the Government a greater margin to make decisions that have to do with tax relief for SMEs and improve their income. In this sense, the Government is not going to be so demanding with the tax collection goals. All this is going to allow injecting more money into the family economy, through the Universal Child Allowance (AUH), through social plans, retirements, etc. With increase and with bonuses. And this keeps national production alive. And let’s understand that the internal economy represents 75% of GDP. And in that sense, there is an ad for Bullrich where she says that if she is elected president, “this is a painful road”, at least they warn us now. And why would this be, because they are going to be governed by the IMF proposals, which indicate a zero fiscal deficit, something that implies not doing public works, leaving more participation to the private sector. What excites me a lot regarding Massa is that he is the only guy in the world who dared to pay the IMF with yuan. This is the true Massa, the one who has the audacity, courage, bravery and cunning not to default, but to pay with a currency that is not the one the IMF is used to using, but which does belong to one of the member countries.
The results of the last provincial elections exposed favorable surprises for JPC, as happened in San Juan. What reading do you do?
AG: I believe that the provinces have historically had disparate behaviors. There were times when Peronism was rampaging and in other provinces there was still radicalism. It is not easy to linearly analyze the provincial results. Because unlike the suburbs and Buenos Aires, the rest of the provinces behave in provincial elections very isolated from national realities. But then a new campaign begins, and it depends on our campaigns and our governors, and what we offer each of them. For something the great majority of the governors separate the elections. I don’t know if it’s such a surprise regarding San Juan. When Peronism was divided in two, with two great figures. One, the ex-governor Gioja, with so many years of success, and the other with the current governor who, prevented by Justice, was his brother’s candidate at the last moment. It is true that if we add the two, the JPC still wins, but in reality, this internal conflict and this division of Peronism surely generated leaks towards the party that seemed more orderly in the provinces. Which I think is also what is happening at this moment in the campaign, where we see a JPC that is killing each other (among themselves), a Milei never had an idea of what he wants for Argentina, they are simply preformed recipes, which he imagined at some point. And we are showing an orderly STEP, without grievances, with proposals and showing everything that was done, despite the great difficulties that Argentina and the entire world had, despite the pandemic, with a year and a half, almost two, unemployed. The 100,000 homes delivered are not compared to the 22,000 delivered by the macrismo following four years of national and international normality. More than 3 thousand kilometers of recovered tracks, 70 localities reconnected with the train, more than 30 level crossings in the suburbs. They are all works that are being executed.
Are you still seeing that photo that Cristina Kirchner described of a three-part scenario?
AG: I think so. Although Milei had a fall, which I think in recent weeks she has recovered once more. But if, there continues to be a discussion of thirds, with a predominant part that is ours.
And the expectation is still entering the second round?
AG: We are going to work to win in the first round.
What will be the message for Mendoza or Córdoba, provinces that historically have always been more alien to the slogans of Kirchnerism?
AG: The one we propose is not a Kirchnerist government. Yes, there is a preponderance of this party, but Sergio Massa has his own space, the Renovation Front, which has shown that it has a presence throughout the country. Obviously, we are strategic partners of Kirchnerism. But looking at Sergio Massa’s government as a Kirchnerist one is not knowing it. Because he is going to give you his own particularities. If it is a matter of not voting for Kirchnerism, with Sergio there will be a Justicialist, Peronist government. Regarding Mendoza and Córdoba, regardless of whether they like it or not, it is necessary to highlight the presence that Sergio Massa has had since he is minister in Mendoza with the regional economies, as well as in Córdoba with the auto parts industry or metal mechanics. From the area of (José) De Mendiguren and (Juan José) Bahillo, he has had a presence regardless of who governs, regardless of the electoral trend of those two provinces.
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