Ukraine’s Optimism and Use of Cluster Munitions to Shift the Battlefield: Expert Analysis

2023-07-15 01:08:12

Optimism prevails in Ukraine following confirming that it has received a shipment of cluster munitions, in addition to NATO’s pledge to “support it in the long term.” Ukrainian experts predicted that their country was preparing for a “comprehensive operation” that would achieve what the Ukrainian “counterattack” failed to achieve once morest the Russian army.

It has not been more than a week since Washington announced its intention to supply Kiev with cluster munitions, which are banned in 100 countries, until the commander of the Ukrainian army, Oleksandr Tarnavsky, confirmed, Thursday, that the army had obtained them, expecting that this would radically change the field situation in a way that would make his country “superior” over Moscow.

The first strike with the forbidden weapon

The Ukrainian academic and political analyst, Khalil Azima, believes that following the pledge of the G7 leaders at the “NATO” summit in Lithuania, on Wednesday, to provide long-term support to Ukraine, and France’s decision to provide it with long-range “Scalp” missiles, Kiev will “prepare a comprehensive operation.”

He clarifies the determination of the features of this operation, and the areas that it will target as follows:

Ukraine will use cluster munitions on the Bakhmut axis, especially following the Ukrainian army imposed a semi-siege on the city. The siege of Bakhmut will continue with either the withdrawal of the Russian forces, their surrender, or the use of cluster bombs to eliminate them. Russian forces’ staging areas and supply lines will be hit to complete the Ukrainian counterattack. The use of these munitions will open the way for the Ukrainian army to adjust the conditions of the battles, and facilitate offensive operations to regain territory, especially following the Russian army has shifted from an offensive state to a state of defense of the occupied lands.

The goal of “liberation”

Regarding the ceiling of his country’s ambition following receiving the cluster bombs, and gaining new support from its allies, Ukrainian MP Svetislav Yurch says that Kiev “will try to liberate the areas controlled by Moscow, and will remove all Russian traps.”

Ukraine had stated that the counterattack, which it announced on June 10, aimed at “liberating” the regions that Russia controlled from Ukraine, namely Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia, but following the failure of the attack so far in the mission, it was likely that One of the reasons is that Russia flooded the regions with mines, which hindered the progress of the Ukrainians.

But the Ukrainian deputy confirms that the matter is now “going excellently, and we are making significant progress in it significantly.”

“A narrow range”

In his reaction to providing Ukraine with cluster bombs or munitions, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said earlier that his country possesses cluster munitions, but “refrained from using them during the special operation.”

However, he vowed that “if the United States provides Ukraine with cluster munitions, the Russian armed forces will be forced to use similar weapons once morest Ukrainian forces.”

On Tuesday, official Russian media reported that Ukrainian forces used cluster munitions in the city of Tokmak in Zaporizhia, for which Kiev did not claim responsibility.

Ukraine has so far pledged to use these munitions “in a narrow range,” according to Archyde.com.

And the Ukrainian military spokesman, Valery Chershin, said on Thursday evening that these munitions will be used only to “expel enemy soldiers’ concentrations.”

Cluster munitions or bombs consist of a container that opens in the air, dispersing large numbers of explosive bombs or submunitions over a wide area.

The number of submunitions ranges from several dozen to more than 600 pieces, and is aimed at destroying military targets spread over a wide area, such as formations of tanks and infantry.

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