2023-07-12 02:00:53
JPYThe U.S. dollar rebounded for five consecutive days, and on Wednesday (12th) it rose above 140 in early trading in Tokyo JPYThe integer level once morest the US dollar is the highest in a month.The Nikkei News reported that the market expects the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to adjust its ultra-loose monetary policy as soon as this month.JPYThe main reason for the strong rise, Bloomberg pointed out that investors are betting that the global economic recession will make theJPYBenefited from.
JPYIt performed at the bottom of the G10 in the first half of the year, but climbed regarding 3% this month, surpassing almost all G10 currencies. In futures markets, investors also appear to be pre-positioning for decisions by the Bank of Japan and the U.S. Federal Reserve later this month.
Nikkei reported that market observers predicted that the Bank of Japan may announce adjustments to the yield curve control (YCC) policy on July 28.
The market bets that the Bank of Japan will adjust the YCC as soon as this month. (Photo: REUTERS/TPG)
Compared with the United States and Europe, Japan’s monetary policy is much looser, which leads toJPYThe main reason for the sell-off is that if the Bank of Japan promotes policy adjustments and narrows interest rate spreads, it may bring buying. This has also been reflected in the recent rise in 10-year Japanese government bond yields.
Japan’s recent data provide room for central bank policy adjustments. Japan announced on Friday that workers’ cash income rose 2.5 percent year-on-year in May, an acceleration from April, largely thanks to the results of spring wage negotiations. In addition, from April 2022 to the present, Japan’s consumer price index (CPI) excluding fresh food has been increasing more than the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, which means that the Bank of Japan is close to reaching its goals of price stability and wage growth.
Bank of Japan officials have recently released the possibility of policy adjustments. Bank of Japan President Kazuo Ueda said at a forum hosted by the European Central Bank at the end of last month that if the Bank of Japan is convinced that inflation will continue until 2024, there are reasons to adjust policy. Vice President Uchida Shinichi also said in a recent interview with Nikkei that companies are gradually getting rid of the wage and pricing habits developed in the “deflationary era”.
global recession
indicationsJPYIt has indeed come to a turning point. Even if some international investors have not yet adjusted and changed positions, they have begun to disperse their layout, expecting that the global economic recession will driveJPYrising.
Vanda Research strategist Viraj Patel predicted that if the global recession,JPY“We are getting closer to the risk of an eventual recession in the global economy, and as time goes on towards the end of the year, that probability only increases. It’s just a matter of time,” he said.
UBS Global Wealth Management believes when the U.S. economy enters a recession will beJPYkey to future trends. Dominic Schnider, the firm’s global head of foreign exchange and commodities, predicted,JPYIt might rise to 128 by the end of the year.
Economic recession in advanced countries may also lead to a strong rise in the safe-haven yen. (Image: Shutterstock)
If U.S. economic data starts to slow, he said,JPYwill start to rise.he simultaneouslyJPYAs an example of strong growth during the banking crisis in March, when financial market pressures resurfaced, holdingJPYLong positions can be used as a hedging strategy.
Capital Economics is also bullishJPYAppreciation, the target price at the end of the year is 130, the reason is that the economies of advanced countries are entering recession, which reduces the demand for risky assets of investors, and safe assets will regain favor in the second half of the year.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict thatJPYAgainst the dollar will rise to 135 in six months, while the forward contract trading market forecastJPYThe rise was more modest.
Bank of America sees it differently, with strategist Athanasios Vamvakidis saying,JPYBy the end of this year, it will fall to 145, regarding 3%, but next year because of the economic downturn will be more widespread,JPYThere is room for improvement.But the bank predicts that as the Fed will be forced to cut interest rates in mid-2024, by then theJPYwill start to rebound, that is,JPYAppreciation is only a matter of time.
1689141681
#Betting #global #recession #Bank #Japans #policy #adjustment #yen #broken #rebounded #month #Anue #tycoonForex