2023-07-10 18:41:09
The centre-right parties have had more disappointments in voting in the current legislature than in the previous one. At the same time, the PS/Green duo and the UDC unite more at the polls when they go it alone on a voting object. With the approach of the federal elections in October, numerical analysis of the success of the parties during the votes.
Sunday, February 13, 2022. It is noon. The projection falls: the “no” to the abolition of stamp duty wins. Explosion of joy on the side of the Greens and the Socialist Party, parties alone once morest all to oppose this reform.
While federal elections are the high point of Swiss politics every four years, voting Sundays are also a source of undisguised emotion. Every three months, the parties savor, or not, the fact of seeing their voting instructions followed by a majority of voters.
>> Review the images of the 7:30 p.m. of the jubilation of the representatives of the left following the “NO” to the abolition of stamp duty in 2022:
The Swiss refused to abolish the stamp duty by 62.7% of the vote. / 7:30 p.m. / 1 min. / February 13, 2022
The disavowed centre-right
Four years ago, the liberal-radical party was accustomed to victories. But today, at the end of the federal legislature, the PLR has lost the title of the party with the most votes.
By comparing the number of times a party formulated the winning vote during the last four federal legislatures, we observe that the Liberal-Radical Party and the Center (formerly PBD and PDC) were only very rarely voted down. between 2016 and 2019. The PLR had lost only twice out of 33 voted objects: the RIE III and the law on gambling.
In the current legislature, on the other hand, the center-right’s instructions were not followed by the majority of voters in a third of votes (12 objects out of 36). The PLR has even recently been disavowed twice on its backyard: fiscal and economic issues. The abolition of withholding tax and stamp duty did not pass the ramp.
For Line Rennwald, political scientist and researcher at the Swiss Competence Center for Social Sciences (FORS), this vulnerability of the right on tax issues is relatively new.
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We suffered failures during this legislature, but it allows us to learn lessons and profile the PLR for the next one.
Olivier Feller, Vaud National Councilor PLR
Vaudois PLR deputy Olivier Feller, national councilor for 12 years, is used to political defeats. “It would be inhuman not to have a feeling of disappointment, but in votes, as in Parliament, one learns to suffer setbacks.” On the other hand, the MP warns that the popular defeats of the PLR on tax issues should not become a habit. “Twenty years ago, when there was a vote on a tax or economic subject, we assumed that it would be accepted. Today, this is no longer the case. We have suffered failures during this legislature, but it allows us to learn lessons and profile the PLR for the next one.
If the PLR has received more slaps at the ballot box in recent years, its influence has not lost its luster, believes Georg Lutz, political scientist and director of the FORS research center. “The liberal-radical party is still followed in two votes out of three. It is not because the PLR also fell in the last elections that the party is losing its majority strength.”
>> Review the subject of 7:30 p.m.: “The left wins another victory in taxation. It’s no to the abolition of withholding tax.”
The left wins another tax victory. It’s no to the abolition of withholding tax. / 7:30 p.m. / 2 mins. / September 25, 2022
This force of majority of the PLR is explained by a dominant position within the federal Bern. “It is the historically governmental party, founder of modern Switzerland”, explains Sean Müller, assistant professor of political science at the University of Lausanne. “The foundations of Swiss politics were built by the bourgeois parties, ancestors of the PLR, which today advocates the status quo.” Consequently, the PLR very rarely launches initiatives and rarely gets into difficulty in voting, unlike the UDC and the left (PS and Vert-es). Two sides that often find themselves alone in defending new projects.
An increasingly convincing duo
The average of the results in votes for the Socialist Party and the Greens has progressed during the current legislature. Objects carried only by the left, or opposed only by the left, have never gathered so many voters. And this observation is true for all of the French-speaking cantons.
Everyone can see that the Greens are making progress in votes and elections over the past five years. It is a deep impulse and not just passing.
Céline Vara, Neuchâtel Green States Councilor
Figures that bode well for the Greens in the next elections, according to Céline Vara. “Everyone can see that the Greens are progressing in votes as in elections, over the past five years. It’s a deep momentum and not just a passing one.” For the Neuchâtel green States Councilor, the results of the left during the votes show a growing interest in ecological issues. “We know that the identity of the Greens is the environment, and environmental issues have never been more important in the eyes of the population.”
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Despite this new force of opposition, political scientist Sean Müller observes that the left still does not succeed in convincing people to have its own fiscal or environmental reforms adopted. This was the case two years ago for the initiative “Reducing taxes on wages”, rejected by 65%, or the initiative on intensive farming in 2022, also largely rejected.
In addition, Céline Vara is aware that the latest polls are not favorable for environmentalists. This is why she wishes to remain cautious regarding a possible electoral success of her party in October. “The link between votes and elections is not obvious. For example, the SVP is the party least followed on the objects of voting, but it is the one which has the most seats in Bern. One can wonder how it is possible to elect people whose political values we do not share.”
A rediscovered influence
The opinion of the UDC was followed in voting one time out of two, that is to say the weakest rate of follow-up of the current legislature for a party. However, the UDC often finds itself alone once morest all to defend or oppose an object. A position which nevertheless succeeds him more and more. When the nationalist right goes it alone, there too, the follow-up of its instruction progresses. The agrarian party is regaining the level of influence it enjoyed between 2008 and 2011, when three UDC initiatives were adopted, in particular the one banning the construction of minarets.
During the current legislature, the party managed to gather a majority of voters on one of its proposals: the so-called “anti-burqa” initiative. And the SVP was the only one to call for a vote “no” to the CO2 law, swept away by the people. Same configuration on June 18, when the agrarian party was the only one opposed to the referendum on the climate law and on the third vote on the Covid-19 law. However, the “no” received regarding 40% for each of the two objects.
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For political scientist Georg Lutz, this result does not represent a potential pool of voters. “People close to a party do not systematically trust its proposal.” This is demonstrated by the studies of the VOX institute which collects, following each vote, the partisan identification of its respondents. For example, the SVP’s face-covering ban initiative attracted 55% of centrist voters.
Another example with an initiative launched and supported only by the left for “More affordable housing”. Also according to the VOX Institute, 37% of the electorate in the center voted in favor, even if the PDC called for a no vote.
A free and pragmatic voter
These figures reveal a Swiss democratic peculiarity, deciphered by Sean Müller. “Swiss voters take the liberty of deviating from their partisan identification thanks to the opportunity to be consulted on specific questions. There is great pragmatism in Swiss political culture.” And contrary to an election, it is not only the parties that are in the front line during a vote”, recalls Line Rennwald. “There are interest groups and civil society movements which also campaign. “For example, the Mass-Voll movement opposed with the SVP on the Covid law.
If the centrist parties enjoy the ability to ally themselves with the right or the left in voting, these parties find themselves alone in the face of an election. Sean Müller indicates that it is easy to identify the general vision of the SVP and the left parties. “The UDC is sovereignty, nationalism and anti-Wokism, while the PS and the Greens are equality and ecology, radical lines. The lines of the PLR and of the Center become difficult to identify.” A difficulty that can weigh in the balance for voters next October.
Thibaut Clemence
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