2023-07-09 01:03:00
Money market guru assesses political factors affecting the direction of the baht While the Bank of Ayudhya expects the baht to move next week within a range of 34.90-35.70 baht per US dollar. stick to US inflation This is important information before the Fed raises interest rates.
Mr. Poon Panichphiboon, Analyst at Trading Room Krung Thai Bank revealed to Nation Online that the factorsThai politicswill be a factor that affects the directionThai bahtenough during this July
We estimate that ifChoosing a Prime Minister and forming a governmenthavesmoothand did not cause political turmoil may help support foreign investorsbegan to have confidence in the political situation in Thailand and the prospects for recoveryThai economymore
which will be followed by returning to buyThai stockscontinually Especially during this time that The Thai stock market has adjusted to a reasonable level until the price level (Valuation) has dropped to an affordable level.
In addition, assess that In such cases thatVote for Prime Minister and forming a protracted government
– The baht has a chance to gradually appreciate, testing the support zone of 35.00 baht per dollar. and may appreciate beyond the support zone to reach the level of 34.75 baht per dollar
However, the vote for the Prime Minister and the establishment of the government may not be smooth at first due toProgressive PartyThere is still a lack of support from the House of Representatives. especially the support from the Senate moderately which made the second-ranked partyPheu Thai Partymay present asLeader of the establishment of the government Ready to offer a candidate for Prime Minister
by evaluating that If the Pheu Thai Party chooses to join hands with the current ruling party, it may gain support fromsenatethat is sufficient to establishcoalition governmentYes, but in the short term Chaos in Thai politics from the issue of voting for the Prime Minister and forming a government may pressure Foreign investors are not rushing back to buy Thai assets or may gradually sell some Thai assets.
As a result, the baht has a chance to fluctuate.Depreciation, risk testing resistance zone 35.75-36.00 baht per dollar In the short term, we still think that if in the end, no matter which party can successfully form a majority government The baht tends to gradually come back to appreciate. following the return of investment in Thai assets by foreign investors
Ms. Rung Sanguanruang, Director of Global Markets Business Promotion and Regulatory Department Bank of Ayudhya revealed to Nation Online that baht next weekmoves within the range of 34.90-35.70 baht per US dollar
The factors that must be monitored are US inflation numbers This will be the last important piece of economic data before the Federal Reserve meeting on July 25-26, at which time the market is expected to raise interest rates by 0.25% to 5.25-5.50% and may be the last one.
In addition, the islandpolitics Investors want to seevote prime minister Accomplish more than individual results Therefore, if there is a protracted and unclear signal, This is even more negative to confidence and investment sentiment, while the baht may depreciate from this factor as well.
As for the movement of regional currencies during July 1-July 7, it was found that the won-South Korea appreciated the most by 0.96%, followed by the baht-Thailand 0.66%, the yuan-China 0.13% the ringgit. -Malaysia 0.00%, except soft Indonesian rupiah 0.94%, Indian rupee 0.83%, Philippine peso 0.61%, Taiwan dollar 0.60%, Dong-Vietnamese 0.34% and Singapore dollar 0.00%.
However, from July 1 to July 6, foreigners sell Thai stocks for 6.5 billion baht, buy bonds for 10 billion baht.
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