2023-07-08 09:24:16
Heavy rain at the end of the rainy season peak tonight ~ 9th Expected to last until 11th Heavy rain disaster fear of further expansion
July 08, 2023 at 18:24
Due to the active seasonal rain front, the peak of heavy rain will continue until the 9th (Sunday), and very heavy and heavy rain accompanied by thunder will fall mainly from Kyushu to the Sea of Japan side of Tohoku. After that, there will be intermittent active rain clouds until the 11th (Tuesday), and there is a risk of even more rainfall. Strict vigilance is required for heavy rain disasters.
Heavy rain will continue until the 11th (Tuesday) until the 9th (Sunday)
Today, the 8th, a seasonal rain front passes through the Sea of Japan and extends from eastern Japan to the east of Japan. The front is expected to stagnate from western Japan to the Tohoku region through Tuesday 11th. Warm and moist air is flowing towards the front, which will keep the front active.
In the Chugoku region, there are places where it rains very heavily accompanied by thunder. The peak of the heavy rain will continue until the 9th (Sunday), and it will be heavy rain with thunder and heavy rain mainly from Kyushu to the Tohoku region on the Sea of Japan side. From the northern part of Kyushu to the Hokuriku region, intermittent rain clouds are expected to continue until the 11th (Tuesday), and the amount of rain is expected to increase further.
Expected precipitation
The amount of rain expected for 24 hours until 18:00 on the 9th (Sunday) is heavy.
Northern Kyushu region: 250mm
Hokuriku region, Tokai region: 180mm
Kanto Koshin region, Chugoku region: 150 mm
Tohoku region, Kinki region: 120mm
The amount of rain expected in the 24 hours until 18:00 on the 10th (Monday) is high.
Northern Kyushu: 100 to 200 mm.
Kanto Koshin region, Hokuriku region, Tokai region, Kinki region, Chugoku region: 50 to 100 mm
11th (Tue) 24 hours until 18:00
Hokuriku region, northern Kyushu region: 50 to 100 mm
Heavy rains have loosened the ground in northern Kyushu and the Chugoku region, raising the risk of landslide disasters. In Tottori and Shimane prefectures, some roads and rivers are flooded. Further rains may cause further damage. Be on the lookout for landslides, watch out for flooding of low-lying lands, rising water levels and flooding of rivers.
Watch out for heavy rain comparable to the largest ever
This figure shows the maximum 24-hour precipitation expected within the target period and the ratio of that precipitation to the historical maximum precipitation at each location.
Research has shown that when this reaches around 100%, the likelihood of serious damage occurring increases, and when it exceeds 150%, the number of casualties may increase rapidly.
The record high ratio is around 100% in Yamaguchi Prefecture and Shimane Prefecture, and there are some areas that greatly exceed it. It is necessary to be vigilant as the possibility of serious damage is increasing.
*1 The historical maximum ratio is the ratio to the maximum rainfall observed since May 2006, when the analyzed rainfall was 1km meshed.
*2 Motohiro Homma, Motoyuki Ushiyama: A study on methods for estimating the number of victims in heavy rain disasters, Natural Disaster Science, Vol. 40, Special Issue, pp. 157-174, 2021.
When to evacuate? What is the timing?
Disasters such as landslides and flooding of rivers occur suddenly and spread quickly, so delaying evacuation can be life-threatening.
Therefore, the timing of evacuation is important. In the case of alert level 3, the elderly and people with disabilities should evacuate to a safe place. At alert level 4, all people in the target area should evacuate immediately. At alert level 5, safe evacuation is no longer possible and lives are in danger. For this reason, do not wait for the announcement of alert level 5 emergency security. Be sure to evacuate by alert level 4.
When the weather gets rough, the road conditions get worse, and the danger of evacuating increases. Even if no evacuation order has been issued, evacuate yourself if you feel even the slightest danger. If you feel uneasy, that time is the time to evacuate. When evacuating, please be aware of disaster prevention and ask your neighbors to evacuate to a safe place as soon as possible.
Points to note when evacuating on foot
I would like you to try to evacuate as soon as possible without thinking, “I’m fine at home” or “I’m fine yet.” However, when walking to a nearby evacuation center in heavy rain, you need to be careful of the following points.
First, watch your step. When flooded, the water becomes cloudy, making it difficult to see even if the manhole cover is removed. It also makes it difficult to see the boundaries between gutters, rivers, and roads (sidewalks). Especially at night, it is dark and difficult to see. Do not force yourself into the water as you may fall or be swept away. If you have no choice but to walk in the water, check your feet with a stick or the like.
Also, watch out for flying objects. Strong winds can blow off tree branches and smash broken umbrellas. It is safe to have something to protect your head, such as a helmet.
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