2023-07-03 16:16:14
It seems a long time ago when when the USSR released a new fighter like the Mikoyan-Gurevitch MiG-23 Flogger or later the Sukhoi Su-27 Flanker, partner countries rushed to acquire it. Today Russia must face the realities of a now ultra-competitive market where, in addition to facing high-quality American and European production, its aircraft must also overcome Chinese competition.. The one that is increasingly paying the price is the announced stealth Sukhoi Su-57 Felon for which export markets are currently simply non-existent.. Even the usual customers of Moscow like Algeria or Syria seem to shun this aircraft.
No sooner has MAKS 2023 been canceled than the clouds begin to gather over Sukhoi and its announced 5th generation fighter. It must be said that the Su-57 Felon has accumulated more development and entry into service delays than its two main competitors combined: the French Dassault Aviation Rafale F4 and the American Lockheed-Martin F-35A Lightning II. Because it is these two top-level aircraft that today are giving nightmares to the decision-makers of UAC, the parent company of Sukhoi.
Of course there is no question that Algeria, Syria, or even Venezuela will place orders for the French plane or its American competitor. However Dassault Aviation is in the process of winning a contract on which Sukhoi was counting to launch the international career of its Su-57: Iraq. Baghdad no longer hides its ambitions to acquire the Rafale F4, probably even this year or early next year. Above all, the tricolor aircraft would allow the Iraqis to remain in American good graces, which would not be the case if the Su-57 Felon were selected. At the same time the Rafale is combat proven while the allegedly stealthy Russian fighter isn’t even in active service yet. His adventures over Syria or more recently in Ukraine have discredited him much more than really served him. They were each time pre-series devices.
In addition to Iraq, Sukhoi believed for a long time in the chances of the Su-57 Felon in the United Arab Emirates before Dassault Aviation once once more came to play spoilsport and won the market hands down. There will be eighty Rafale F4 flying there and zero Su-57!
However, according to Russian propagandists, the Sukhoi Su-57 Felon is the best combat aircraft in the world. So good that in July 2023 only twelve pre-production copies are in service with the famous 23rd Guards Aviation Regiment, in charge in particular of the air defense of Moscow. The first operational aircraft should not arrive in units before Christmas 2023 at the earliest. We still have to be a little patient.
So the Rafale F4 is a serious competitor for the Su-57 Felon. So much so that he snatched two clients from him who might have opened doors for him in the Middle East and eventually the whole world. Except his other itchy hair is called the Lockheed-Martin F-35A Lightning II. The American plane that Russian propaganda portrays, sometimes rightly and often wrongly, as an iron sells much better than the Sukhoi fighter. In fact, unlike the latter, it sells. Which suddenly makes by ricochet effect that he sells much better than him. CQFD.
And more and more countries formerly under the yoke of Moscow, such as Poland or the Czech Republic, are choosing this American plane. What must have there once more the merit to irritate in the corridors of the Kremlin showing a little more the total loss of influence of Russia and its aeronautical industry in Europe.
The American federal law known as CAATSA, which provides for sanctions for countries buying Chinese or Russian defense materials, cannot explain everything when it comes to the commercial failures of the Su-57 Felon. Moreover, countries like Algeria, Syria, or even Venezuela have never feared them. So why are these three ultra-loyal customers still not buying this announced stealth aircraft? In the case of Syria the reason seems much more economic than anything else, the Su-57 Felon being currently the most expensive combat aircraft made-in Russia. And the finances of Damascus are no longer in the red but in the black!
As for Algeria and Venezuela, it seems to be disillusionment with an aircraft that has never been able to prove itself. These two countries also prefer the Sukhoi Su-30 Flanker-C, which is older and more rustic but much more suited to their needs than this Su-57 Felon. And they’re right because it’s still a great multi-role platformer. Algerian pilots in particular know how to get the best out of the Su-30.
We also talked for a while regarding Turkey, which is also a founding member of NATO. Her exclusion by Donald Trump from the JSF program, confirmed by Joe Biden, made her a privileged client of Moscow and UAC. Except that in Ankara Reccep Tayip Erdogan chose to decline the offer, preferring to focus on his indigenous program TAI TF-X. At the same time, the Turkish authorities are negotiating the modernization of their General Dynamics F-16C/D Fighting Falcons.
Erdogan has no interest in offending the Atlantic alliance a little more and the use of this Su-57 Felon would harm the TF-X.
Especially for a few months now the Russian aircraft manufacturer has had to deal with surprising competition: Chengdu and Shenyang. Chinese aircraft manufacturers have become hyper-competitive, and they are flying a 5th generation fighter operationally: the J-20 Firefang. Their J-35 for its part is in the final phase of international development. A device that might sooner or later interest the usual customers of Russia who do not fear American repercussions and sanctions.
You will no doubt have understood that the potential customers of the Sukhoi Su-57 Felon are now dwindling. Especially since the operational reality of the aircraft in Russia is still a source of many questions.
Case to follow.
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