2023-07-01 20:04:00
A week ago, heavily armed Wagner troops marched towards Moscow. What follows from this event? Gwendolyn Sasse, Director of the Center for East European and International Studies in Berlin, classifies the events.
Gwendolyn Sasse
political scientist
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Gwendolyn Sasse is the academic director of the Center for East European and International Studies in Berlin and Einstein Professor for Comparative Research on Democracy and Authoritarianism at the Humboldt University in Berlin.
SRF News: When you think back to last weekend, what was the big open question for you?
Gwendolyn Sasse: The main question was whether and to what extent elites from the Russian army and the security apparatus would join the Wagner troops and whether this movement towards Moscow might have turned into something more. That was certainly the main question for Wagner boss Prigoschin. He then decided to call off the advance when it became clear that there was not enough support. But the fact that it has gotten this far shows that at least important elites have not opposed it.
But did the allegiances work? Did the security and military apparatus stand by Putin?
In large parts. But the mere fact of being able to take over the military command in Rostov means that the people in Rostov knew that this was happening and did not oppose it. Then getting as far as Moscow shows how the military and the security apparatus tended to look on. Many have not positioned themselves clearly.
The first cracks in the system have become publicly apparent. But overall the system is still holding up.
The loyalties will probably not all last in the long run. The first cracks in the system have become publicly apparent, but by and large the system is still holding up. We can assume that Putin will make every effort to ensure that this scenario with private armies and violent actors turning once morest the system cannot repeat itself.
Is Putin now becoming more repressive?
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“I expect more repression,” says Sasse. “I also expect a forced implementation of the decisions that have already been made, for example that today is the deadline on which private armies have to be officially integrated into the Russian army.”
“Some have done that, with the Wagner troops it is currently unclear exactly where they are and who will obey the order. But that will be encouraged. There will probably no longer be private armies that are not under state control. We shall see whether this will succeed in its entirety. Then I also expect repressions, both in our own apparatus and in the whole country, further focused on any opposition. »
Can Putin take action once morest his own people when there are perhaps a relatively large number of them?
We don’t know how many there are. We also don’t know what, for example, the Russian soldiers at the front even noticed regarding what happened. In addition, it is not possible to assess the level of support for Putin within the Russian army.
What we saw last weekend is a sense of instability. That is a risk for an authoritarian ruler like Putin.
However, we have seen pictures showing Prigozhin and his troops being worshiped as war heroes. Conversely, this means that Putin cannot bet on the support of everyone involved in the war. But beyond that, we don’t currently see any real liberal opposition left to make itself heard. In society, too, we tend to see a desire for stability.
What we saw last weekend is a sense of instability. That is a risk for an authoritarian ruler like Putin. Society, even in an authoritarian society, perceives it as a danger.
Neither the elites nor society see any clear political alternative to Putin at the moment, for which one would then really switch allegiances. In my opinion, some form of change must also begin at the elite level. Society itself has been so shaped for so long that momentum will not come from there. But this feeling of instability alone leaves a rift and perhaps a shaky trust in the current leadership.
Could that be a problem in an authoritarian system?
In any case. An authoritarian ruler must fear that. Because everything depends on stability. Putin needs to present himself as the person in control of events.
How should the West deal with the situation?
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“You have to get ready,” says Sasse. “The question is, however, that it is not clear how. You have to think of different scenarios. But we also saw last weekend that the West and various actors in the West then actually become observers. At this stage it will not be possible to intervene from outside in the internal power struggle. But the focus of the West continues to be on supporting Ukraine, because the course of the war will be very decisive for Putin’s strength or weakness and the preservation of his system, the West can continue to do a lot and continue to focus on that and closely monitor what is happening in Russia. And to keep different scenarios in mind and prepare for them as best you can.”
“Because authoritarian systems seem very stable over a long period of time, but something can also happen all of a sudden and I think that’s speculation, of course, but I don’t think we’ve got to that point yet. But it might come and then it can happen very quickly and then it can also be a violent change. And it may be that a person similar to Putin comes to power. There might also be another spiral of violence in Russia. That means thinking regarding different scenarios as much as possible. But at the moment you will not be able to influence them from the outside in my opinion. »
The conversation was conducted by Simone Hulliger.
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