2023-06-30 17:04:56
The financial markets have shown their positive side. Almost all investment categories were able to progress during the first six months.
A solid semester: the financial markets showed their positive side. Almost all investment categories were able to progress during the first six months. The losses of the previous year have thus already been partially compensated. This resulted in a performance of between 3.5% and 4.5% in our balanced wealth management mandates.
A restrictive monetary policy: although inflationary pressure is gradually easing, inflation remains above central bank targets. The Swiss National Bank (SNB), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) once once more raised their key rates in June. Global monetary policy remains tight until further notice.
A recession in perspective: the leading economic indicators (PMI) continue to point downwards, in particular those of industry, which have been in the contraction zone for months. In the Eurozone, economic performance declined in the last quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, which corresponds to a technical recession. The slowdown is expected to accelerate globally over the next half year.
A volatile second half: the rise in interest rates and the economic slowdown will be felt on company results. Looking ahead to the upcoming earnings season, expect some disappointments. We therefore expect an increase in volatility. After a strong first half, there should be less price increases.
Cautious positioning: at the tactical level of placement, we recommend defensive positioning. After the sharp rise in interest rates, we mainly see opportunities in quality Investment Grade bonds. On the equity side, we focus on stock picking. We favor companies with strong balance sheets in non-cyclical sectors, which speaks in favor of the Swiss equity market in terms. Gold and real estate funds remain attractive for reasons of diversification.
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