2023-06-30 15:41:53
The United States is rushing to expel the Russian private armed group Wagner from Africa through 4 tracks, taking advantage of the shock that Russia was subjected to by the group’s one-and-a-half-day rebellion on June 24.
These paths are monitored by a political analyst specializing in African political affairs, for “Sky News Arabia”, and another analyst points out the reasons that push Russia, in return, to keep the group in the “brown continent”, within the Russian-American struggle for influence within it.
Russia: We will cut Wagner’s funding if it does not sign contracts with the “ministry”
The statements of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, last Monday, indicate that Wagner will continue its operations in Mali and the Central African Republic, despite the rift that occurred between its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and Moscow.
4 American tracks to move
According to Chadian political analyst Jibreen Issa, who specializes in African affairs, even if the rebellion leads to a change in the group’s leadership, the goal and strategy of Russian interests related to its work will not change. Accordingly, the strategy adopted by Washington since last January aims to get rid of Wagner’s influence in Africa through 4 tracks:
The first track is to provide political support to countries in Africa following the continent’s leaders met with US President Joe Biden last December, and Washington confirmed that Wagner’s presence was not desirable. The second track is Washington’s provision of financial inducements to the countries where the Russian group is located, and the US administration has allocated $57 billion to support development in Africa, and part of the provision of financial support is linked to ending Wagner there. For example, Washington asked the President of Central Africa, Faustin Archange Touadera, to get rid of Wagner and his relationship with Russia in exchange for providing economic aid, and gave him 6 months to end this relationship, but Touadera rejected the tempting offer. The third path is to impose sanctions on companies and governments that cooperate with Wagner, in the event that they do not cut off their relationship with them. Last Wednesday, the US Treasury imposed sanctions on organizations in the Central African Republic because of their links to Wagner, in addition to including a Russian citizen who was working as a manager on the Wagner side in Mali on the sanctions list. The fourth track is the military targeting of this group, but this targeting will be through a third party.
Pentagon: Some Wagner elements are still in Ukraine
Why does Wagner persist in Africa?
It is unclear whether Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, who moved from Russia to Belarus, will still run his group from there to enable it to continue its missions in the Central African Republic, Libya, Mali and Cameroon “undisclosed,” according to Jibrin.
Wagner’s withdrawal from Africa does not seem to be an option today on the table of the Russian government, as the Togolese political analyst Mohamed Madi Gabakti believes, and this is due to:
Wagner’s operational strategy over the past two or three years is to expand its military and economic footprint in Africa, for several goals, including its continued access to financing through the gateway to control the wealth of the countries operating in it. Wagner is an entity promoting the agenda of the Russian state, and the two are closely related; Therefore, Moscow will not end the group’s work in Africa, but we may witness more of its presence there. A restructuring of Wagner’s activities seems inevitable in order to continue the Russian strategy in Africa.
As part of a deal to end the insurgency, Russian President Vladimir Putin offered the Wagner fighters three options: join the Russian army, go to Belarus like Prigozhin, or return home.
Putin: I never doubted the support of Russian citizens during the Wagner Rebellion
It is not yet clear whether these options also apply to Wagner fighters in Africa.
Wagner, which became famous initially in Ukraine in 2014 for supporting Russia in the annexation of Crimea, has increased its role in the Ukraine war that has been raging since February 2022, and also operates in regarding 30 countries in the interest of Moscow, which indicates the importance of the group in Moscow’s foreign policy.
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