2023-06-23 11:49:08
Visiting Berlin on Monday, NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg demanded that the German government fulfill its commitment to spend 2% of its GDP on defence. A promise lying in fact black on white in the news national security strategy from the country. On Thursday, Chancellor Olaf Scholz took a further step by announcing that this level would be reached next year.
“It’s a good thing that the coalition takes the subject of defense seriously”, welcomes Reinhard Brandl, elected member of the social-Christian opposition and member of the Defense Committee at the Bundestag. “The whole question is how she is going to do to meet this very ambitious objective”, he warns, impatiently awaiting the 2024 draft budget, scheduled for July 5.
31 billion euros are missing
The 2% represent 84 billion euros, while the government would provide only 53 billion for the morocco of Defense. It would therefore be missing… 31 billion. The government has two levers: it can dip into the defense modernization fund of 100 billion, or increase the budgetary envelope of the ministry led by the social democrat Boris Pistorius.
However, these two levers are constrained. According to our information, the Ministry of Finance plans to draw only 11 billion euros from the modernization fund in 2024, so 20 billion would be missing. This pocket of money can only be requested to finance available products. However, most arms contracts will not be realized until following 2027, indicates a source familiar with the matter.
A little sleight of hand might expand the use of this fund: direct purchases between States, such as the F-35 or heavy transport helicopters, can be counted immediately and authorize a draw. The spokesperson for the security policy of the environmental group in the Bundestag, Sara Nanni, is confident and assures that the fund will cover most of the needs until 2025.
The budget debate promises to be heated
But Henning Otte, vice-president (CDU, opposition) of the defense committee at the Bundestag, is all the more skeptical as inflation, VAT and initial expenditure have already cut the fund by a third. In addition, CDU leader Friedrich Merz reminded Olaf Scholz outside the Bundestag on Thursday that his party had only gave the green light to the 100 billion fund on the condition that it not be used for achieve the 2% target, but add to it.
“A more sustainable approach would be to increase the defense budget,” adds Henning Otte. A significant increase in a period of budgetary scarcity, as also claimed by Boris Pistorius, however, comes up once morest opposition from the Greens, members of the government coalition. They demand structural reforms to better control the use and effectiveness of funds, within a ministry where the realization of orders can take more than ten years.
“Security does not only depend on military spending, we must keep resources for diplomacy or development aid,” adds Sara Nanni. The budgetary solution without debt or tax increases, which must be presented by the Minister of Finance, Christian Lindner, in two weeks, therefore promises a lively debate, including within the coalition. “We are no longer in peacetime, and the Chancellor has no vision for sustainably financing the country in wartime. It is up to him to set tax policy,” tackles Sara Nanni.
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