2023-06-20 06:03:17
Set of chips on microcircuit board for contemporary TFT displays in cardboard box in plant assembling workshop extreme closeup
【Memories of most investors】
In the tutoring class this week, when everyone was reviewing the stock selection competition last week, the students all said that the recent stock selection has become more and more difficult. That’s right, the market has indeed reached a high level, and the trading volume is a bit behind, and there is a possibility of correction at any time. But I must say, the bulls still have pawns available! This available soldier is “Double D”.
Investors who are less experienced may not know what “Double D” is, because it is not a new technology, nor is it the predecessor of 3D. Double D refers to two groups: DRAM and TFT-LCD.
When it comes to double D, it must bring back the memories of many investment friends, because they can be said to be a popular group in the past. However, following several industrial cycles, the industry that was originally optimistic regarding the 2 trillion double star by the government has turned into a “miserable business”. There are still many who hold.
【Double D index stock search】
The double D shares currently eliminated by the market are:Nanya Branch (2408), Winbond Electronics (2344), AU Optronics (2409), Innolux (3481), Caijing (6116). The first 2 files are memory groups, and the last 3 files are panel groups. Recently, the double-D stocks have coincidentally risen in turn. Let’s take this opportunity to check the double-D stocks and see if there is any chance to intervene!
TFT-LCD: According to research institutes, TV panel quotations this month have exceeded cash costs. It is estimated that panel makers may turn losses into profits in the fourth quarter of this year, and the supply may even fall short of demand next year. The latest quotation for LCD TV panels in June is that the average price of 32-inch LCD TV panels in June increased by US$1, 43-inch by US$2, 50-inch by US$7, and 55-inch flat. The quotations of medium and large-sized panels rose significantly. At present, AU Optronics (2409) and Innolux (3481) have a large proportion of medium and large-sized panels in China. AUO posted a loss in the first quarter of this year, with a loss of 1.42 yuan per share. Innolux also showed a loss in the first quarter, with a loss of 0.82 yuan per share. AUO’s revenue in the first quarter declined by 37.21% from the same period of the previous year, and Innolux’s first-quarter revenue declined by 34.76% from the same period of the previous year. However, judging from the revenue performance in April and May, although AUO is in decline, the decline is only In the single digits, Innolux even showed a positive growth of 3.9% in May. Currently, AUO’s share price-to-book value ratio is 0.91, and Innolux’s share price-to-book value ratio is 0.62. If it can turn from loss to profit in the third quarter, the current share price of Innolux seems to be relatively undervalued. As for Caijing (6116), the revenue in the second quarter may still maintain a decline of regarding 30%, and it will be ranked later in the order of operations.
DRAM: memory is an indispensable and important component in the PC architecture. In the past, the quotation of memory mostly followed the supply and demand of PC/NB. However, the rise of automotive and AI servers in recent years has allowed memory to find another outlet. Even though the current market share of these two new markets is still not large enough, they are gradually growing, which is a good thing. In the past, I have shared with you that for this type of “hard demand” electronic products, the demand is often not the most important, but the adjustment of the supply side is. At present, Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix have announced production cuts, and the industry generally expects that the room for future price declines will gradually converge. This news boosted the morale of the module factories, and the stock prices of the module factories such as Team Group (4967), ADATA (3260), Shangcheng (8277), Indiscount (5289) and so on rebounded one following another. However, the bottom of the real trend actually depends on Nanya Branch (2408). The reason is that Nanya is currently active in improving the process compared to other Taiwanese manufacturers. The 10nm first-generation (1A) new product 8Gb DDR4 has passed customer verification and will be promoted to consumer set-top boxes and personal computer applications this year. Simultaneously Product verification and mass production preparation for next-generation DDR5. The leading products of the 10nm second-generation (1B) process technology are already in trial production. Nanya Branch’s capital expenditure in 2023 is expected to be 18.5 billion yuan, regarding half of which is the budget for manufacturing equipment, including the construction of new factories and the mass production of 1A/1B process technology. Revenue has shown monthly growth for three consecutive months. The current share price-to-book ratio is 1.4 times, and the June 28 ex-dividend is 2.13 yuan. Winbond (2344) has a share price-to-book value ratio of 1.24.
Is it true that the memory of most investors killed this double D increase?
Is it true that the memory of most investors killed this double D increase?
Is it true that the memory of most investors killed this double D increase?
[Recommended reference to foreign investment chips]
Regarding the operation strategy of the double-D group, domestic capital is more likely to focus on small module factories, while foreign capital focuses on panel Shuanghu and large stocks such as Nanya Branch. Therefore, investors may wish to refer to the dynamics of foreign capital in and out. As long as foreign capital continues to buy, and the short-to-medium-term moving averages of the current stock prices maintain a long-term arrangement, investors may wish to take advantage of the market pullback and take over in batches. I wish all investment friends a smooth operation.
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About the Author:
Engaged in the financial securities industry for more than 15 years, a qualified securities analyst, currently the chief investment officer of Zhongying Fortune, CMoney Quanyao financial consultant, financial chief writer, and a lecturer for the Securities Foundation, Zhongzheng Community University and Star Cloud Academy, Yahoo financial column, business Contributing author of Zhou Fortune Network.
The investment mentality first focuses on the long-short cycle of the overall economy, and combines fundamental stock selection and technical operations; it believes that “choosing the opportunity to enter the market” is the way to make profits in stock market investment. There are currently 2 books: “Trust me, you can’t make enough money”, “Taiwan stock market history”.
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