2023-06-13 19:32:00
This Tuesday the 13th, The “blue” dollar started the wheel with a rise of just $1 and was trading at $485. However, After 3:00 p.m., it was already trading for close to $490. While the dólar MEP opened the round of operations on the Stock Exchange at $478.37 and averaging in the followingnoon trades at $475.89.
However, the other financial dollar is the one that is causing talk because it is already located above $500. It is regarding Cash with Liquidation (CCL) started this Tuesday with a slight fall, but at 3:00 p.m. it was already trading at $502.08.
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It is worth remembering that yesterday this financial dollar climbed $24.10 to settle at $503.37. Thus, the spread with the official was 104%.
When referring to the reason for this price, the financier Gaston Lentini told PROFILE that “the bulk of CCL quotes are above $500, which means that This price is becoming a floor”indicated.
The financial advisor recalled that “The CCL is money placed abroad, With which, As the elections approach, it will rise more than the MEP dollar, the official dollar and the BLUE”, predicted.
And he recalled that as the elections approach, what is going to grow is “uncertainty.” “I think that many investors will choose to take their money out of the countryjust placing itself in cedears o cable, that is, taking the money abroad, and This is going to cause bullish pressure.”he detailed.
And added that the same argument will apply to the blue dollar. “Let’s remember that 50% of the economy is in black. All those pesos that are charged in black are not going to wait to see what happens following the PASO or the general elections,” he said, adding that this situation will imply that “There will also be a strong demand for blue dollars for all those people who have undeclared pesos and want to protect them devaluation or excess inflation that we will continue to see in the coming months”.
For his part, Salvador Vitelli, Head of Research for Romano Group explained to PROFILE. “In terms of the rise, for now it is remaining relatively calm following the intervention that is taking place in the secondary bond market carried out by the government and since the end of April, when all this fuss regarding the dollar began. If one look at it, what has risen in June is in relative harmony with a “similar crawling peg” and even if one looks at the daily closings of the MEP dollar, in the bonds with which the government intervenes (generally on AL30), one notices that they go day by day letting it run a little more so that it does not fall behind in the face of inflation and the official exchange rate, therefore they end up keeping the gap around 95%, taking the role where the government intervenes.
I think that what the government is looking for is to keep pace with the crawling peg and inflation, taking into account the new levels of nominality in which we are inserted.
Thinking a little regarding what may come, Vitelli recalled that the inflation data to be published tomorrow by INDEC may arouse some nervousness if it turns out worse than what the market expects. “We also have payments with the IMF and we have to see what happens if they are not made because they can also generate some instability,” he said. He also made reference to the BCRA and the lack of dollars that are not being settled from the field. “Without another disruptive factor, I think they will continue to bring the dollar to those levels, which ultimately is to bring the gap from 90 to 100%,” said the analyst.
Finally, Vitelli assured that “at levels below that gap, the intervention is very expensive for them because they take all the dollars and at these levels I think they feel relatively comfortable with an economy moving forward and following the Arrive Plan.” In any case, he also assured: “That does not mean that the gap is extremely detrimental to the economy,” he closed.
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