2023-06-13 17:44:00
The May inflation would pierce the floor of 8% that had been installed in April and, if ratified, it will take pressure off June remarks. The data, which will be published this Wednesday the 14th by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC), would support the strategy of Minister Sergio Massa to intervene in the foreign exchange market during to stop the latest financial run and avoid a sharp devaluation that would trigger an uncontrolled acceleration in prices. The confirmation will open two doors for the head of the Palacio de Hacienda: the closing of the agreement with the International Monetary Fund; and his electoral launch as a candidate presidential.
Sources of the economic team consulted by PROFILEthey trusted that the May number would be below 8%, which would make it possible to reduce, at least, 0.5% in relation to the 8.4% in April. The average of the consultants forecast a rise in the CPI above 9%, including the Survey of Market Expectations (REM) published last Friday by the Central Bank. There was a precedent: CABA inflation was 7.5%. “We have one difference of more than 1% in relation to the April measurementwhen INDEC was given higher than the consultants, because the effect of the exchange rate run was entered in that registry, which had not had an impact on private measurements”, clarified an official source, who is part of the economic team.
Inflation in CABA was 7.5% in May and has been over 40% so far this year
In fact, another ministerial source, very close to Massa, announced that rebookings for the first week of June were frozenbecause “the wholesalers behaved well”, by respecting the price agreement negotiated by the Secretary of Commerce, which leads Matias Tombolini. “The increase in supermarket gondolas was 0%”according to the survey made by that official agency, through a system of measurements on line prices in shopping malls. The focus is on essential productswhere the industry, wholesalers and large merchants intervene.
Key data for the new agreement with the IMF
When this Wednesday at 4:00 p.m. the INDEC confirms the advance of PROFILEMassa will have managed to win the Central point in the remodeling of the foreign debt repayment agreement with the IMF. The surprising 7.8% of May is the card for “Demonstrate with numbers the devastating effect of non-intervention”.
Happens that on Friday he will send his technical team to Washington with graphics showing a inflationary peak in the middle of the run April exchange rate, which begins to decline with the decision to sell dollars in the secondary market to curb the sprint.
In virtual meetings, the team Massa, headed by the vice-minister Gabriel Rubinstein, “great progress” in talks with him staff of the Fund under the terms redefined goals and disbursements. In fact, a source very close to the head of the Palacio de Hacienda confirmed that this week there might be a technical agreement. Only the political signature will remain, which will be made by the minister himself on a trip that he will make following June 20, hours following the Government puts into operation the Nestor Kirchner pipeline that, in addition to guaranteeing the gas self-supply for this winterwill allow save dollars from BCRA reserveskey in the negotiation.
With business backing and the agreement with the IMF “almost ready”, Sergio Massa defines his candidacy
The signature of the new guidelines will allow a political solution to the complications of the repayment of the Argentine debt that caused the drought, according to the consensus reached both in the Fund and in the Ministry of Economy. The initial negotiation was focused on bringing forward the full-year disbursements, estimated at USD 10.6 billion, under the Extended Facilities (EFF) agreement. And also another USD 1.8 billion would be added in advance of 2024, according to official sources. But main point is he permission to use reserves to use them in interventions in the face of the dollarization pressures that are triggered in the electoral processes. The result of the CPI will be crucialas they were enthusiastic in Massa’s environment.
The figure of candidate Massa is enlarged
The data at low inflationContrary to private expectations, will give Massa a plus in his electoral assessment. With this letter, the minister has to his accounting credit the managing the economy in the midst of repeated crises, even when the remarks remain at high levels and pierce the purchasing power of the population. This situation would position him in a privileged place for the competition for the Rivadavia seat, which next December will leave Alberto Fernandez. In exchange, the head of the Palacio de Hacienda promises keep calm the end of the presidential administrationfollowing the uncertainties that it went through due to market pressures, which predicted hyperinflation.
With the CPI of June 14, the Renovation Front will seek for Massa to become the most competitive candidate to represent the ruling party in the elections and, in this way, force the resignation of Daniel Scioli and the rest of the presidential candidates for avoid dispersion of votes and position the candidate of the Frente de Todos as the one with the most votes in the PASO and profiled to be part of the party in an eventual runoff next November.
Guido Sandleris: “The IMF has been too generous or permeable with this government”
It happens that the Inflation is the most urgent issue on the population’s agenda, according to opinion polls and the same analysis of the economic team. That is why Massa introduced the issue as part of the debate agenda during his speech at the Frente Renovador congress, his political force within the FdT, to demonstrate management capacity in the price crisis, even when the discontent over remarks is sustained. If the INDEC ratifies the drop in relation to April, with that argument will deepen the claim of single candidateas this medium was able to know.
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