2023-06-10 01:17:02
At this stage of human civilization, along with the progress achieved, serious problems appear, ranging from the desire for dominance and the struggle for hegemony (which is dramatically expressed in the various wars), to the dangers of the autonomization of artificial intelligence. (accompanied by its possible warlike use) and the advance of the climate change with its followingmath of short-term extremes of drought and flooding.
In the ArgentinaIn addition, we have other very urgent unresolved problems, including inflation that, by eroding our income, puts us “in water around our necks” (to relate it to the title of this note) and makes it seriously difficult for us to think regarding other very relevant issues. .
On the question of climate change, and in the not too distant medium term, the impact of the melting of the poles and glaciers appears, with its correlate in the sea level rise, and therefore of the rivers that flow into it. A symptom of this is that NASA has implemented a web page for monitoring.
NASA: in 60 years a climate apocalypse will begin, with indomitable cyclones and hurricanes
In a note by Darío Silva D’Andrea, from February of this year in PROFIL, titled “Buenos Aires under water? Scientists showed the lethal effects of sea level rise in 2050”, he points out that a interactive mapfrom Climate Central, “allows us to see which areas of the world might suffer from the rise in sea level, caused by climate change, a bleak panorama that might make vast areas of the Argentine coast disappear no less than around the year 2050 if the weather situation continues to worsen… This map reveals the coastal towns of the province, as well as parts of the Buenos aires citywhich might have to be abandoned en masse due to sea level rise and coastal erosion.”
The note also states that “this same week, the UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, had warned of the risk of an exodus “of biblical proportions” in coastal cities such as Buenos Aires due to the rise in sea level caused by global warming. . “He danger is particularly acute for nearly 900 million people living in low-lying coastal areasone in 10 people on Earth,” Guterres said.
Different possible scenarios are mentioned there, but there are very worrying data regarding its possible acceleration, such as those found by British and American scientists in Thwaites Glacier, West Antarcticawhat is fracturing in an unprecedented way.
Unfortunately, the advances in stopping the deterioration of climate change are not relevant enough to reverse it and, beyond insisting and doing everything possible to achieve it, we can ask ourselves What to do in the face of an eventual acceleration of the rise in sea level?
They warn that the rise in sea level will generate “exodus of biblical scales” in cities like Buenos Aires
Some will say that -for now- nothing or very little, because the rise in sea level will be very slight for the next few years. The most probable scenario is half a meter of sea level rise for 2050 or one meter in a century and that this is “manageable”, and therefore there is no need to alarm the population.
The rising scenarios 5 metros or -in the worst case- 60 metros sea level (If all the ice in Antarctica collapsed) are very distant in terms of their possible occurrence.
However, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) comes from proposing a 66% probability that the annual temperature of the planet’s surface temporarily exceeds one and a half degrees above pre-industrial levels at some point in the next five years.
Siberia also burns in flames due to the lack of ice in the Arctic
It also estimates a 98% chance of breaking temperature records and foresees that the arctic warming is more than three times higher than the world average. Regarding the latter, recent information indicates that, in the months of September -as of 2020- the North Pole ocean might be free of ice, a decade earlier than expected.
Therefore, if as is currently the case with the Thwaites Glacierthis will accelerate, and even if our generation does not suffer from it: will we not have the intergenerational obligation to begin to propose and face initiatives that tend to alleviate its possible consequences for that eventual moment?
What if the sea level rises faster?
Does the survival instinct only play for us and not to help or be in solidarity with those who come following us as a human species? Will we be so foolish and selfish?
As examples of actions that are in progress, we can cite two in USA. First: the Army Corps of Engineers is raising the construction of a six meter wall for the protection of the vulnerable southern coast of the state of Florida from a storm surge, and we might say -more generally- once morest the rise in sea level due to the collapse of polar ice. Second: the city of New York has already begun to implement the “East Coast Resilience” project (for the Lower Manhattan area) to protect that city from flooding and rising sea levels.
Here in Argentina we have, mainly, the National Plan for Adaptation and Mitigation to Climate Change by 2030 and the National Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction 2024-2030, but we understand that they are insufficient for much more pessimistic scenarios such as those derived from the threat acceleration of sea level rise.
What other things might we do? Here are some ideas to explore:
- Change the Ordering or Urban Planning Codes of all coastal cities with large rivers and the sea to discourage construction on the levels that might be affected, as well as to build walls and embankments (such as ring roads) that are suitable for this purpose.
- summon the Colleges of engineers and architects, as well as the Argentine Army Corps of Engineers, to study and propose alternatives such as those implemented in the US. A historical and very interesting case to evaluate from that country is that of the mid-nineteenth century in the city of Chicago, where -by means of “industrial screw jacks” and in others by hydraulic systems- they were raised and -in other cases- buildings were moved.
- The special case of the elevation of the water treatment plants in coastal areas (for example in the Metropolitan Region of Buenos Aires), the ports (their silos, container yards and accesses) so important for our exports, and other critical infrastructures (as is the case of the Costanera thermoelectric plant in the City of Buenos Aires ), as well as new initiatives such as the so-called liquefied gas (LNG) integral development project in the vicinity of the port of Bahía Blanca.
- promote the territorial development towards the west of our countrywith new towns or cities (or expanding existing ones) with the use of clean energy and solar panels to give energy autonomy to new constructions.
We know that wisdom is not abundant, nor is thinking regarding different medium and long-term scenarios. facing prevention actions -facing the urgencies of the present-but It does not hurt to alert the most sensitive people and the different leaders regarding these issues that may have significant importance in a not so distant time.
* Essayist and economist. Member of the Argentine Political Club
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