2023-06-05 16:10:30
Growth is slowing but remains positive. Inflation is falling but still remains well above central bank targets.
At the macroeconomic level, inflation is slowly decreasing and growth is slowing but remains positive.
The decline in inflation is mainly due to the fall in energy prices, while in the underlying components, prices continue to rise more strongly than before the health crisis. Moreover, even if economic activity is marking time, it is sufficient to maintain the expansion of the labor market.
If the downward trajectory of inflation is likely to reassure central banks, the slowness of the decline and the solidity of economic growth still encourage caution in terms of rates.
On the money market, the consensus is hesitating between two scenarios: a break from the Fed until the end of the year or a final hike of 25 basis points between June and July. Regarding the ECB, the money market anticipates two increases of 25 basis points in June and July, followed by a pause in observation.
These expectations are compatible with a gentle slowdown in the economy and will have to be confirmed in the light of the next inflation and growth statistics.
Currently, China receives little attention; the recovery in activity following the abandonment of the zero-Covid policy is confirmed, without however reproducing the excesses observed in the United States and the euro zone. This is also the case of the war between Russia and Ukraine, whose impact on energy prices has long since diminished.
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