2023-06-05 07:16:00
This election is not only seen as a state process, but as a thermometer on the possible preferences of voters towards the 2024 presidential election.
The State of Mexico is the federal entity with the largest number of inhabitants in the country, 16.9 million, according to figures from 2020 from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). With an electoral roll of 12.6 million, the weight of the vote in the State of Mexico is significant.
To exemplify its dimension, this is approximately equivalent to the total number of inhabitants of El Salvador and Nicaragua together.
“It is 60% of the electoral roll of all of Central America, it is also the electoral roll equivalent to Chile and it is bigger than Uruguay and Paraguay combined. We are talking regarding a very large mass of votes,” explained Bernardo Barranco, a political analyst and Former Electoral Counselor of the State of Mexico.
Due to its electoral size, the State of Mexico is, in turn, a fundamental space to measure the power of the parties. “It is the main barn of votes at the national level, for both the PRI and the PAN here they have the highest number of votes at the national level. For Morena, here she also has the first or second place in the number of votes at the national level”, explains Professor Juan Carlos Villarreal Martínez, from the Autonomous University of the State of Mexico.
For this reason, analysts believe that what happens in the elections in the State of Mexico might be a laboratory for the 2024 presidential elections.
“This percentage (of the State of Mexico) may be a final orientation prior to the elections on the 24th, which are presidential elections,” says Barranco.
“Whoever intends to achieve a good result in next year’s elections has to win the State of Mexico yes or yes. In the case of Morena, he would not only reach 23 governorships but would govern more than 60% of the nominal list, ”says the academic Villarreal. “For the coalition of Vamos por el Estado de México, winning it is vital to arrive in better conditions to compete in 2024.”
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