2023-05-29 01:43:21
- Ricardo Senra
- BBC reporter
image source,Getty Images
“The more people there are, the stronger the country is. It’s a very 19th-century idea.”
India has just overtaken China to become the most populous country in the world, according to United Nations data. So can it match — or even surpass — its mighty neighbor as a world superpower?
In terms of economic size, geopolitical influence and military power, Beijing still has more than enough power, but experts believe that the dynamics are changing.
According to Michael Spence, the 2001 Nobel laureate in economics, India’s moment of glory has come.
“India will eventually match China. China’s economy will slow down, but India won’t,” the Stanford University dean and professor emeritus told the BBC.
But India also faces challenges.
China is the world’s second largest economy, almost five times larger than India, which ranks only fifth.
India’s middle class is relatively small, and it needs to invest heavily in education, improve living standards, achieve gender parity, and economic reforms to achieve “Chinese-style” explosive growth.
To become a world superpower, population and economy alone are not enough, but geopolitics and military power are also required – India is still far behind in these aspects.
Soft power will also play a key role. India’s Bollywood film industry has been effective at promoting the country internationally and has broken records on Netflix (Netflix).
But on the other side, there is also the so-called Chinawood (Chinawood)-the Chinese film industry is booming. In 2020, it will replace Hollywood for the first time and become the world’s largest box office. In 2021, China will successfully defend its title.
India’s economic momentum
Currently, 86,000 babies are born in India every day, compared with 49,400 in China.
The United Nations pointed out that India’s population will continue to grow until 2064, from the current 1.4 billion to 1.7 billion in 2064.
This would allow India to enjoy a “demographic dividend” – a boom in economic growth as the working-age population expands.
Prof Mark Frazier, director of the India China Institute, The New School, New School, New York, said: “India’s incremental reforms in the 1990s are now paying dividends, but the key lies in the strength of its workforce. How educated they are, how healthy they are, how skilled they are, and how capable they are of contributing to the economy.”
“The more people there are, the stronger the country is, it’s a very 19th-century idea,” Professor Fraser added, because there are other factors to take into account.
According to The World Bank, only half of India’s working population (aged 14 to 64) is currently working, or looking for work.
Looking at women alone, the rate drops to 25 percent — 60 percent in China and 52 percent in the European Union.
After a series of reforms in the 1980s and 1990s, China’s economic growth surpassed all other countries. But the combination of the COVID-19 pandemic, an aging population and rising tensions with the West is weighing on the country’s economic growth.
The growth rate of India’s gross domestic product (GDP) has surpassed that of China, and according to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), this momentum will continue.
So, does the slowdown in economic growth mean China will be marginalized?
Professor Spence explained: “If China maintains a growth rate of 4% to 5% until 2030, that will be an impressive achievement. You may think that for a country with an economic growth rate of 8% to 9%. Terrible deceleration, but it’s not really right.”
“China is more like the US now, we’ve never had growth rates like 8%, 9%, 10%. They’re going to rely on productivity gains. I think they can because they’ve invested heavily in education, science and technology, etc. .”
China’s military expansion
Both China and India are nuclear powers, which gives them a strategic advantage in the international game.
Beijing’s nuclear arsenal is two and a half times the size of New Delhi’s, according to estimates by the Federation of American Scientists.
China has nearly 600,000 more troops than India, and focuses on investing in the defense industry.
Professor Fraser said: “India is very dependent on Russia, importing their technology and expertise, while China has undoubtedly done a lot of scientific research and developed its own military infrastructure.”
China has obvious advantages in the field of national defense and military industry, while India tends to maintain good relations with Europe and the United States, where most of the world’s military power is located.
Professor Fraser added: “India can be an important strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific region, and the US government is building some kind of safe zone around China, not only in East Asia, but also in South Asia; not only in the Western Pacific, but also in the Indian Ocean.”
geopolitical choice
India, host of this year’s G20 summit, appears to have an opportunity to sell itself when the leaders of countries that own 85 percent of the world’s wealth sit at the negotiating table.
Beijing’s relations with world powers have soured since Donald Trump became US president, but China remains a major economic partner for more than 120 countries, from Russia to South Africa, Saudi Arabia to the European Union.
Along with the multi-trillion-dollar Belt and Road project, China has become more comfortable with political influence abroad.
Although India is regarded by the West as a key geopolitical partner, Beijing holds one of the five permanent seats on the United Nations Security Council, which means it has veto power over almost all major decisions in the organization. Discretion.
image source,Getty Images
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (left) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (right) each face very different challenges.
Over the past few decades, India and other emerging economies have tried to change this situation, but no one has succeeded.
“I would not be seeking a new permanent seat on the Security Council, even though we all know that it makes no sense for a country that was victorious in a conflict that ended in 1945 to continue to run the global security order,” Professor Fraser said.
Professor Spence agrees.
“Voting rights no longer reflect the size and influence of the economy, far from it. One day, either the world will reform these systems, or these mechanisms are out of touch with the times, because something else will take its place.”
The leading alternative right now is the BRICS, a bloc of Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa designed to counterbalance the economic and geopolitical influence of the Global North.
soft power
image source,China News Service
“Chinawood” – The box office revenue of Chinese movie theaters has surpassed that of the US market for two consecutive years since 2020.
A century ago, Hollywood transformed the movie theater into a powerful tool for exporting American values and influence.
China and India have successfully followed suit.
Since 2007, the number of movie theaters in China has increased 20 times to 80,000. That compares with 41,000 in the US and 9,300 in India.
Dr Wendy Su, an associate professor at the Department of Media and Cultural Studies at the University of California Riverside (University of California Riverside), said: “Before the pandemic, Wallywood maintained its growth momentum, expanding its presence through co-productions and mergers and acquisitions of Hollywood studios. Global reach.”
However, following surpassing the U.S. film market for two consecutive years in 2020 and 2021, China’s film box office revenue will drop by 36% year-on-year in 2022 due to the impact of the closure order of cinemas related to the new crown epidemic.
And while Bollywood is widely regarded as Asia’s version of Hollywood, Wallywood is still unfamiliar to most.
Bollywood made Indian cinema go international.
Dr. Su Weiqun said: “Bollywood has greater and stronger influence in the world.”
“Even in China, Bollywood films have a strong influence on Chinese audiences. Dangal (2016), a film regarding former wrestler Mahavir Singh Phogat ; Taiwan translation “My Champion Daughter and Me”, Hong Kong translation “Killing and Never Leaving 3 Fathers and Daughters”)’s box office revenue beat all Hollywood films screened in China, occupying the first place in the box office of Chinese movies for 16 consecutive days. It was released for 60 days , this is also one of the longest-running movies in the history of Universal Films.”
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