Will Erdogan Win Again? Analyzing the Turkish Presidential Election Second Round

2023-05-25 09:40:00

Arrived at the top of the first round, outgoing President Erdogan, now supported by the ultranationalist candidate Sinan Ogan, seems well placed to win this Sunday, May 28. His opposition rival has strongly hardened his speech, analyzes researcher Yohanan Benhaim.

The hope of seeing Erdogan leave seems almost impossible in Turkey. The second round of the presidential election is being held this Sunday, May 28. Defying the polls which gave him the loser, the Turkish head of state came out of the first round with 49.5% of the vote and a comfortable lead over the united opposition candidate, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu (44.9%, i.e. 2 .5 million ballots less). Especially since Erdogan seems to have taken the advantage, with the support in particular of Sinan Ogan, an ultranationalist candidate who acts as the third man thanks to some 5% of the votes obtained on May 14. Head of contemporary studies at the French Institute for Anatolian Studies in Istanbul, and head of Turkey at Noria Research, Yohanan Benhaim deciphers this end of the campaign.

Is the call of the ultranationalist candidate, Sinan Ogan, to vote for Erdogan in the second round surprising?

It should above all be noted that it is now the extreme right which appears as the “kingmaker” for this second round, and not the Kurdish party, as it was considered before the first round, when the HDP did not present candidate, to favor the election of Kemal Kiliçdaroglu. The political weight of the nationalist extreme right, which totals 22% of the votes in the legislative elections divided into three parties, is felt in the campaign. This pushes the opposition candidate to seek points on the far right. The result is a nauseating racist turn in the discourse of the opposition, which turns the vote into a referendum for or once morest immigration with the support of Ümit Özdağ, the former partner of Sinan Ogan, who joined him in Kiliçdaroglu.

Are we witnessing a nationalist escalation in the campaign for the second round?

The tone of the opposition campaign in recent days clearly contrasts with that of the first round. Two priorities emerged. First, the rejection of Syrians and other immigrants to be deported, with implausible figures of 10 million cited and a population that would pose a threat to women’s safety. Then, the fight once morest terrorism, and this to defend himself from the accusations made by Erdogan who affirms, video in support that the opposition is supported by the PKK. The objective was to make the ruling coalition appear as the only one capable of protecting the nation.

How to explain the resistance of Erdogan and his party, the AKP, to the Turkish electorate?

We must speak of electorates in the plural since not all voters in Turkey voted for Erdogan and the AKP, and be wary of the optical effect in reading the results of the legislative elections and the first round of the presidential election. . For parliamentarians, the electoral game was made around coalitions of parties. So even if the results indicate a decline in Erdogan’s party, which won 35.5% of the vote once morest 42.5% in the 2018 election, and remains Turkey’s leading party, it is because it is allied to the far-right MHP party and the Islamist New Refah party that he remains at the head of a majority in parliament.

But the results of the first round indicate that Erdogan managed to widen the gap on his rival significantly.

In the presidential elections, Erdoğan made an excellent score and nearly won in the first round. We must not forget the unfair campaign conditions: absence of adversarial debate, no equality of speaking time, public television is completely under the control of power and there are only a few private televisions not to be broadcast a pro-AKP speech. The news channels took over the discourse of power and made a real hype regarding the “civilizational risk” represented by the opposition, regarding its supposed collusion with the PKK and terrorism. In addition to terrorism, the representatives of power have also stirred up moral panics: the opponents are said to be “unbelievers”, pro-LGBTs, supported by foreign powers. A demonization that worked with the electorate. But it is above all the economic promises and the gifts to the most modest made by Erdogan that have served, such as the increase in the minimum wage and pensions or free gas.

Why has the opposition not taken advantage of the economic crisis? for which Erdogan is largely responsible ?

Indeed, the opposition coalition, while promising economic change, did not promise concrete measures for citizens. His program was in line with the priority institutional reform of returning to a parliamentary system rather than the presidential system established by Erdogan. On the economic level, this implied a strengthening of the independence of the Central Bank and the transparency of public procurement. But the opposition probably lacked proposals that affect the daily life of the categories of people who have suffered the most from Erdogan’s economic policy.

Politically, Erdogan’s authoritarianism and his personalization of power don’t bother a majority of voters that much?

Part of the Turkish electorate suffers from the autocratic presidential system established by Erdogan. and opposition voters talk regarding their refusal of a system that only depends on the will of a man. Mmis this one remains very popular and charismatic. He can still capitalize on his history and that of the AKP of the 2000s which brought economic prosperity to the country. The theme of Turkey’s greatness, its strategy of developing a national defense industry and its diplomatic initiatives are all elements that affect the pride of its voters.

Should Erdogan’s victory in the second round be taken for granted?

The gap to be made up is very important, the polls give it a winner and the opposition is demoralized by the results of the first round. We cannot really know the effects of a second round because it is unprecedented in a presidential election in the history of Turkey. Everything suggests that the opposition voters are the most demobilized, but will the AKP voters, certain of victory, go to the polls as much? From what we see of the vote abroad, participation seems to be on the rise, without it being possible to say yet in favor of whom. In addition, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has made a bet to participate in an online debate show, Babala TV, extremely popular among young people, which might influence the undecided in the final stretch. A victory for the opposition, however, remains very unlikely.

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